Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

12z eps

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Another step in the right direction for us west of the main show.  Nice jump towards the GEFS

 

[Shawn]

@ SER & rhart

It's probably a pretty good bet if your at or NE of ATL near I-85 that you'll at least see a trace of snow, inch or two certainly a reasonable possibility esp the further NE you go towards Greenville-Spartanburg...

Wow, you are a lot more conservative than a meteorologist in ATL on the other board (Cheeznado). He is 100% confident ATL will have accumulating snow with 1-4", with the higher totals north and northeast of atl.

he is also smarter vs that met.....

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[Shawn]

For the Marietta, GA, area, does 70% chance for 1"+ and 20% chance for 3"+ sound reasonable as of now? Any opinions?

I would guess lower for both and include the possibility of under 1". Just based on what the models seem to be showing right now


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 Thanks. You obviously don't trust the GFS solution. I had 30% chance of under one inch at Marietta. Maybe it is really closer to 50%. Maybe 10% chance for 3"+ is more reflective of the model consensus.

If there is only a 10% chance of 3" in Marietta why is FFC forecasting 2-3" for Marietta ?

 

[Shawn]

NAM sim ref little more coverage to our west in MS

 

[Shawn]

For the Marietta, GA, area, does 70% chance for 1"+ and 20% chance for 3"+ sound reasonable as of now? Any opinions?

I would guess lower for both and include the possibility of under 1". Just based on what the models seem to be showing right now


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 Thanks. You obviously don't trust the GFS solution. I had 30% chance of under one inch at Marietta. Maybe it is really closer to 50%. Maybe 10% chance for 3"+ is more reflective of the model consensus.

If there is only a 10% chance of 3" in Marietta why is FFC forecasting 2-3" for Marietta ?

 They may be assuming a warm bias at the surface for the Euro and also may prefer the GFS.

 

[Shawn]

FFC AFD out via Twitter ... reading now.

Leaning GFS and GEFS ...

Looks like they've been recycling the AFD from 4:30am this morning. Don't think there have been any updates to the Fri/Sat forecast since then. Am I missing something?

EDIT: Nevermind - see it now. I guess my link didn't refresh at first.

 

[Shawn]

Saw this at the other board.

~21/50 members show 7"+ for rdu 

 

[Shawn]

• Friday
  
  
  
  
  Chance Rain
  then Chance
  Wintry Mix
  High: 40 °F
• Friday
  Night
  
  
  
  Chance Wintry
  Mix
  Low: 26 °F
• Saturday
  
  
  
  
  Chance Snow
  High: 40 °F
• Saturday
  Night
  
  
  
  Slight Chance
  Flurries
  Low: 23 °F

My forecast from NWS

 

[Shawn]

I can't disagree with FFC. Until there is a significant change in the GFS from what its shown for a few days the solution it's showing can't be ignored. It doesn't mean go all out and show close to sign. accumulations for everyone, but it does mean introduce the idea of snow in a lot of the area and keep the door open for adjustments to the north and for the solution that affects both north and parts of central GA.

 

[Shawn]

Hello everyone. Came over here from Talkweather as it seems that most others have done. Was Projectvortex1974 over there but thought I would shorten it up a bit here lol. What are your feelings on central Alabama? Seems should have good moisture but will we have the cold air to put us in the best of both worlds.

 

[Shawn]

Fwiw the control matches the OP

 

[Shawn]

Hello everyone. Came over here from Talkweather as it seems that most others have done. Was Projectvortex1974 over there but thought I would shorten it up a bit here lol. What are your feelings on central Alabama? Seems should have good moisture but will we have the cols air to put us in the best of both worlds.

welcome !!! glad you made it. I'd lean a dusting right now. still time to improve a little

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