B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I have a feeling it is coming this way. With all the rain we had last year, it's hard to think this will miss us more than it won't.
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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
I have a feeling it is coming this way. With all the rain we had last year, it's hard to think this will miss us more than it won't.
No doubt the trend is towards a more mature short-wave coming out of the Gulf, minor changes in axis over the FL Panhandle are key as we move towards verification.
I agree with Stormsfury and Webber that the lower levels are much too warm for wintry precip. along coastal SC and I'll add coastal GA despite 850s near 0C. If you look back at old wx maps, you'll generally see a much better Arctic air connection in past wintry events with a very far southeast low track like this. As has been mentioned for days, the lack of an Arctic high supplying fresh cold has been and continues to be the main reason that this nearly perfect surface low track has virtually no chance to produce accumulating wintry anywhere near the coast of SC/GA. About all we can get from this is a cold rain with temps down to the high 30s to low 40s with perhaps a stray sleet pellet at best. Actually, N FL will likely get an uncommonly cold rain with only low to mid 40s. Do we really want that nastiness? I don't know about others but I'd rather have a nice day for outdoor activities. Our soils are quite moist. However, the model trends are closer to coastal sections getting some cold rain.
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snowlover91
Member
Well they did win so I guess snow is coming your way!
I haven’t seen it posted but it’s amazing the wide range of possible solutions seen in the 12z RGEM ensembles. We have everything from a weak storm way out in the ocean to a strong one dumping snow in the Raleigh area. Here they are.
Leading vort right on queue working the western Gulf, trailing energy is in western Nebraska diving down. On paper this is a fantastic interaction for eastern NC, but the pv lobe in SE Canada is too far west and the lack of amplitude (GL low) behind the northern stream argues a slp exit stage right.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yeah, it's not going to run up the coast and get the mid-Atlantic folks. This will go out to sea. Question is how far inland will it get before it moves out?
Snowflowxxl
Member
NAM south out to 24hr.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yep, NAM appears it will a miss.
Bye bye...
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Snowflowxxl
Member
HUGE shift. Thats pretty embarrassing performance for the NAM tbh
It’s the Nam. It’s what it does. You get Nam’d by one or two exciting runs, and then back to reality. Maybe we’ll get Rgem’d in a few. Guarantee you if we were in a snow bullseye, we’d get a 150 mile NW shift easy.
snowlover91
Member
The difference in the NAM this run is our energy didn’t go neutral to negative as fast. That’s the key here and tiny changes at 5H lead to huge surface shifts which is why the NAM is jumping around.
Having said that... with the RGEM ensembles mostly all keeping things off the coast I don’t have much confidence in this shifting back NW.
Having said that... with the RGEM ensembles mostly all keeping things off the coast I don’t have much confidence in this shifting back NW.
RVD
Meteorology Student
At the surface it certainly appears that way, but it's really more of a reflection of the sensitivity of the setup. I mean honestly, early on I thought the 00z NAM looked better at h5 than the 18z (see gif below), but the shift had more to do with the speed of the wave, as the 00z resulted in a slightly faster moving system for... reasons? The difference between the two runs aloft really isn't that large, and tbh it hasn't been for most of the adjustments we've seen the last few runs. That's sort of the point we're even tracking this still.
All that said, if other 00z models show no improvements I'm going to have a hard time believing this is going to work out last minute in any substantial way.
Here’s a theoretical question, I guess. If such a small H5 change can produce such a massive shift east, could a similar H5 change in a more favorable fashion produce a shift of similar magnitude west? Not trying to be unrealistic...just wondering.
RVD
Meteorology Student
I'm pretty sure, yes, it's still theoretically possible. I mean I'm no expert, but if it's a matter of a few hours of timing for when the wave reaches the panhandle and/or goes neutral/negative, then that's definitely within a reasonable margin of error for models (for a few more runs at least).
We've lost the RGEM east as well.... with that I'm out, for tonight anyway
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snowlover91
Member
Yep the timing of this going neutral/negative is why we keep seeing the mesoscale models bouncing around like they are. It’s always possible this could tilt negative quicker than modeled which would be a nice surprise. With the globals all keeping this far enough away and the NAM/RGEM shifting back east it’s going to be tough. Tomorrow we will know much more as the energy really gets going.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
S/w is weaker and less negatively tilted on every model minus the fv3 for the 0z run vs 18z
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
0z GEFS looked virtually the same as the 18z run ticked maybe 15 miles NW, well within the realm of noise.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Overnight Euro run is a tick faster which = further east in the long run. Can't afford too many more runs like this at this stage in the game.