Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

[snowlover91]

And this folks is why you never write off a storm that is close but not quite there. The 5h changes we’ve seen over the past 2-3 days have been minimal but in this setup they can lead to huge changes at the surface. Also I’ll say we could see this shift west even more if this goes negative a little quicker.

 

[snowlover91]

 

[Snowflowxxl]

If the trend continues over the next two days yall will have a big dog on your hands. Woof!

 

[WeatherNC]

Happy hour off to a nice start with the NAM taking precip almost back to Wake county. Kuchera is 2-3” in NE NC and extreme SE VA, 10:1 a couple inches more. About an inch for Greenville but verbatim the coastal plain is dependent on a changeover.

 

[ajr]

This is almost complete wishcasting, but I still feel like the NW trend isn't done and RDU may be in for a special...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

metwannabe gets NAM'd?

 

[Avalanche]

Hopefully the negative tilt will allow some moisture to rotate in the triangle ne to sw.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

metwannabe gets NAM'd?

View attachment 13581

Looks like a dusting to maybe 1/2" where met lives. He is west of the heaviest snow.

 

[Metwannabe]

A @metwannabe special!

25 more miles and y'all can chase to my house

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[snowlover91]

Here is the kuchera map for the storm, general 1-3” of snow in areas that change over.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Getting closer and closer, and still almost 48 hours to come even further west.

 

[Metwannabe]

Looks like a dusting to maybe 1/2" where met lives. He is west of the heaviest snow.

I'm just going to throw it out there knowing my exact location is a little unnerving....

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[Myfrotho704_]

3km is slightly more faster based off H5, still not bad but may keep precip hugging the coast and maybe spread into some parts of the coastal plain

 

[Avalanche]

I'm just going to throw it out there knowing my exact location is a little unnerving....

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Modern tech for ya.

 

[Stormlover]

areas farther west getting a good one. La, Miss, Memphis

 

[Webberweather53]

Definitely could go either way here and we need at least a few more runs of the major globals thru 12z tomorrow but the disparity between the NAM & RGEM vs every other model in their depiction of the western extent of the precip shield w/ this storm reminds me a lot of Jan 3-4 2018 last year where everyone thought this would mainly affect areas along/east of I-95 and discounted both models because they were different but ended up being the closest to reality.

EPS 12 hours before the Jan 3-4 2018 storm began.




Reality.

 

[ajr]

I know it's been posted elsewhere, but with the trend and pattern it's hard not to think about Jan 2000 (I'm correctly remembering that storm had a GL too low, right?)

 

[Stormsfury]

I know it's been posted elsewhere, but with the trend and pattern it's hard not to think about Jan 2000 (I'm correctly remembering that storm had a GL too low, right?)

yes. it developed in the Eastern Gulf. immediate coast of SC got dry slotted as it was really getting good...ended up with light ZR after a good front end thumping of sleet and brief snow. areas further north got walloped.

 

[Stormsfury]

what also bugs me to no end is the NAM has 850mb temps cooling along the SC coast with precip as low as -4, with temps rising into the 50s with precip... don't see that happening... especially a depicted deform band right over the Lowcountry as the low is pulling away.

 

[Webberweather53]

Seems like the ICON is finally pulling its head out of the sand.