Low was a tad bit weaker, however, 5h looked more similar to 18z compared to 12z.
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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
We get a storm every year that we try to pull offshore. I say trace to 2” along the coast. On to February for me. This is in terms of wake county. Coastal plain people should still be excited
Cary_Snow95
Member
Yeah definitely closer to 18z but a step back. We needed a continuation. Gonna be close for the coast though
Kylo
Member
I thought the ULL looked fine but the big change was the kicker dropping down. NAM’s not going to get that right at hour 60.
NCCWOP9077
Member
That's about as far west as the precip shield makes it into NC, but no snow is depicted on the 18z ECMWF. Seems to be a little further west than the 12z run however.
Gfs took a pretty sizable shift at 5H, a much better one
snowlover91
Member
GFS with a nice shift west and upper air moisture too.
Gfs with a definite shift west with precip vs 12z and 18z
RVD
Meteorology Student
Models are slowing this system down a lot. This went from a late Sunday/early Monday system to a now mid-afternoon Monday system. If this keeps up we could be looking at Monday night. I suppose this also results in the NW trend because it's not at the cost of the progression of the phase/tilt to negative of the trough.
You’re 0/2.
CMC with a huge jump west from 12z. Pretty close to the gfs output precip wise.
RVD
Meteorology Student
Slightly unrelated, but it's also interesting is that the 29/30 system is clearly speeding up in that same shot. Quite frankly, I have no clue what implications (if any) that would have on this system.
The writings on the wall here folks, I've seen this movie before.
0z
0z
uk has also made another shift west. I think the take away from tonight is modeling has for the most part either held or shifted more favorably. We still have all day tomorrow AND Sunday for things to change, and they will change. I can guarantee you that.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The waves continue to interact & phase sooner and more favorably upstream w/ the southern stream wave getting out ahead of the northern stream system, seems pretty obvious to me where we're headed here. Bigger storm w/ more precip further inland and a slower storm now towards Monday night = more snow further inland. US HWY 1 & I-95 corridors are in the driver seat
Eric, the ensemble mean has trace amounts of precip up past Columbia This thing definitely has legs for the coasts/obx at the very least.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This has big legs further inland on the path we're currently going down. I'm not really concerned with where the models currently are verbatim but where they're going to be near the 0 hour (& even then could miss to the SE) because it's pretty obvious if this trend continues even to a lesser degree for the next 36-48 hours, areas like RDU, Goldsboro-Wilson, etc could be dealing with something substantial-very substantial. The large-scale changes happening upstream would dramatically alter the sensible outcome for folks in the east-central piedmont of the Carolinas. I've seen this movie play out far too many times.