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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Getting about that time to close thread. Move to next week

Seems like it. Maybe open a “here comes Spring” thread lol

This one looks a mess at 5H. It’s still possible this develops but there are a lot of different players moving around at the 5H level. Would take absolute perfection to get a storm out of this.
 
Seems like it. Maybe open a “here comes Spring” thread lol

This one looks a mess at 5H. It’s still possible this develops but there are a lot of different players moving around at the 5H level. Would take absolute perfection to get a storm out of this.

As usual it takes good timing of both pieces of energy to make this work. Still a variety of options on the table right now, we have everything from a stronger storm like the UK shows to a suppressed system. Models haven't really honed in on any one solution yet which leaves this open for future adjustments. GFS and FV3 were close to something pretty good.
 
I'm not giving up on this system yet.

Same here, there are so many moving pieces here and the PV shifting north some, changes in timing of the southern/northern waves and things like that will shift around at this stage. Usually those changes lead to a stronger system and NW shift, we will see if that holds true this time as well. If there were ever a time to hope for the NW shift it would be with this storm. With models so mixed right now and ensembles members as well that increases my confidence that we will continue seeing changes for another few days until they begin to figure it all out.
 
I'm not giving up on this system yet.

I’m with you. A small shift can make a huge difference. How many times have we seen shifts in a 48 hr time frame? Remember Dec 2017 snuck up on us. Today’s 18z run will be interesting.


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Can someone post the euro and what it’s showing? Two hits? For who???

First one is mainly good for the western SE as far as I can tell.

Second one was probably about to hit the triad in NC at hr 240 as the run ends but...day 10 with all models struggling with what's happening this week.
 
ICON threw in a new look, it took our energy and stalled it out over the California coast then completely stretched and sheared it out into nothing.
 
This GFS run could be interesting. Energy entering the US much stronger and looks healthier. PV is lifting north a little. Hmmm..
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