Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

[Myfrotho704_]

12z gefs will probably look at little bit better

 

[Mitch West]

The northern stream waves are the ones diving out of Canada. In the picture I posted it would be the one extending from GA up through the Great Lakes region. Our southern stream wave is the one that is south of LA. To get a phase you want these two waves to meet together but if one is in front of the other they will miss or have a delayed interaction keeping this suppressed and out to sea. The 12z FV3 was very close to a nice storm, only a few hundred miles/hours in timing faster with the southern or slower with the northern and we would have a nice storm.

Ok, I see exactly what you are saying now. Thank you

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

So on the Ukie the low at the western tip of Cuba then there's a 986 that's pretty wound up heading up the coast.

 

[snowlover91]

UK has a bomb. Hard to tell in between 24 hour panels what it does, maybe someone with better maps can share some insight?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Another look...

 

[Thor]

Seems to be more Lows concentrated in North Florida this time

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just looked on cod met, and gefs looks way better when it comes to low placement, more members are now north, along with the precip field, still struggling with cold air tho but we have time to work that out

 

[RollTide18]

Just looked on cod met, and gefs looks way better when it comes to low placement, more members are now north, along with the precip field, still struggling with cold air tho but we have time to work that out

Yep, I think we should start seeing a northward trend shortly.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Honestly looks like the FV3 tries at 120 on the better maps but then a piece of the southern energy simply just breaks off with the northern energy and it's a swing and a miss.

 

[snowlover91]

Here's the UK 6 hour panel, a 983mb bomb off the NC coast and precip as far inland as Raleigh.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just saw the Z500hunnit for the fv3 and like y’all said it was sooo close to phasing, man

 

[Round Oak Weather]

The trends look better I think in the nxt day or so the models will show a phase but if it’s correct or not who know

 

[snowlover91]

Summary of runs so far.
FV3 - Close to phasing but misses and stays suppressed. Better run than the 6z was.
GFS - Nice 3 run north trend, close to phasing like FV3 and has a late phase off the coast but too far OTS. Good changes.
UK - Nice phase that bombs to low 980s off the NC coast with light qpf as far west as Raleigh. Looks fairly similar to last night's 00z run.
CMC - Swing and a miss, stays suppressed/offshore.
ICON - Suppressed.

 

[mrdaddyman]

UK has a bomb. Hard to tell in between 24 hour panels what it does, maybe someone with better maps can share some insight?
View attachment 12572

2M temps are above freezing from RDU South and East so there is no snow accumulating per the UKMET.

 

[Webberweather53]

Ouch...

 

[snowlover91]

Thanks for posting those UK panels! Looks like verbatim the UK would be a light snow event for Eastern NC with maybe some minor accumulations. Any quicker with the turn north and closer to the coast would change this significantly.

 

[snowlover91]

Ouch...

View attachment 12594

Isn't it a bit ironic that the Euro is shifting south while the GFS has shifted north? Quite a bit of model chaos still with anything from a stronger system near the coast (UK) to a near miss (FV3/GFS) to a suppressed mess (Euro/ICON).

 

[Tarheel1]

Thanks for posting those UK panels! Looks like verbatim the UK would be a light snow event for Eastern NC with maybe some minor accumulations. Any quicker with the turn north and closer to the coast would change this significantly.

It won’t change the heat over NC!

 

[STORM6]

Getting about that time to close thread. Move to next week

 

[Arcc]

Euro may be close for NC.