So when does the UKMET run?
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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah going back to that FV3 run, I can actually see how this would work if this wave would interact and phase with that northern stream branch that rotates down. It was a miss though.
At least we are going into the right direction.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah it just missed this 12z GFS run but it was a shift north for the GFS still and IF it had phased with that northern energy it would have looked more like the 00z UK and some of the FV3 runs. This storm isn't dead yet.
The low trended north on the GFS run.
BHS1975
Member
snowlover91
Member
GFS 3 run trend. Anyone notice a N shift? lol.
I just don't see us getting the cold air we need even if we get this thing to scrape us. This is a very interesting time coming up regardless, especially with the anafront approaching. Lot of energy out there.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If we actually do get a phase with a part of the northern branch, it could work out. Otherwise this thing seems like its pretty wound up.
Yeah, have to have a phase or get out ahead of that energy that comes off the PV lobe.
It might actually show 850s to warm but all you need is dynamic cooling, pretty dry air at the sfc and aloft and if you were to get heavy precip to fall the column would crash to a isothermal sounding, but this applies for more climo areas
snowlover91
Member
Hard to tell on these rough maps but it appears the FV3 JUST missed a big phase.
For comparison here was the 6z run, notice how far apart the two waves are and a bit stronger PV press.
For comparison here was the 6z run, notice how far apart the two waves are and a bit stronger PV press.
snowlover91
Member
It would need to phase with the northern stream and that would deliver enough cold air for isothermal soundings and snow as long as the track is offshore.
snowlover91
Member
I think someone asked about a link to the faster FV3 runs, here it is.
When you say phase with the Northern stream, what exactly do you mean? I'm not going to pretend like I understand what yall mean anymore with that. I have a idea, but I want to be sure. Are you referring to the energy behind it?
Looking at the 12z GFS, the southern wave wasn't much faster, but the northern wave and PV was slower. That trend would work too.
snowlover91
Member
The northern stream waves are the ones diving out of Canada. In the picture I posted it would be the one extending from GA up through the Great Lakes region. Our southern stream wave is the one that is south of LA. To get a phase you want these two waves to meet together but if one is in front of the other they will miss or have a delayed interaction keeping this suppressed and out to sea. The 12z FV3 was very close to a nice storm, only a few hundred miles/hours in timing faster with the southern or slower with the northern and we would have a nice storm.
RollTide18
Member
I think if we get a phase then we really wont have to worry about cold air as much.
I will say I think we’re starting the day off better than where we ended last night. Small small baby steps.
Fountainguy97
Member
Our 5H energy is not even its own piece yet. It’s still wrapped around the large pacific gyre. In 24 hrs it will begin to become more pronounced as it’s own wave.
So I could see large shifts occurring for the next 24hrs. By then the wave will be starting to take shape and we will be approaching or at 5 days out.
There is still time.
So I could see large shifts occurring for the next 24hrs. By then the wave will be starting to take shape and we will be approaching or at 5 days out.
There is still time.