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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

metwannabe said:
This is going to get just close enough to make me mad.... Not going to make a difference but does seem to be verifying a little W/NW of most guidance
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Yeah it definitely is as usual, not sure if it's gonna be enough to make a difference in your backyard but boy if we had another 50 miles on top of this it would be game, set, match that you'd see at least some decent precip.

Don't get sucked back in!

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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah it definitely is as usual, not sure if it's gonna be enough to make a difference in your backyard but boy if we had another 50 miles on top of this it would be game, set, match that you'd see at least some decent precip.

Don't get sucked back in!

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I'm not..... I'm over it. lol
 
GaWx said:
I don't think it would have mattered for us or anywhere near us for getting snow other than a few token flakes that perhaps could reach the surface. Do you? Look at St Simons Island. They were 53/34 at noon (wetbulb 47). and are as of 4 PM at 49/43 (wetbulb 47) after 3+ hours of rain. No dynamic cooling of note to this point and they are way above freezing. SAV, with no rain yet, is at 51/33 (wetbulb 45). CHS is at 50/33 (wetbulb 44). They'd cool more, but the air in the lowest few thousand feet would is way too warm imo to get cooled to anywhere near freezing. The missing ingredient? A fresh supply of low level cold enough Arctic air. There are no strong enough highs to significantly help in that area as I've been emphasizing for several days.
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Followup: With continuous rain the last 3 hours since my last post, SSI is still only down to 47 though wetbulb has cooled slightly to 45. (DP is 40). Brunswick is at 45 with a wetbulb of 44. All have northerly winds, i.e., not modified much by the ocean. This is further evidence to me that this wasn't even a close call for the coastal areas. The coldest in FL is Lake City's 41 (wetbulb also 41). So, even well inland in N FL, it isn't close.
 
GaWx said:
Followup: With continuous rain the last 3 hours since my last post, SSI is still only down to 47 though wetbulb has cooled slightly to 45. (DP is 40). Brunswick is at 45 with a wetbulb of 44. All have northerly winds, i.e., not modified much by the ocean. This is further evidence to me that this wasn't even a close call for the coastal areas. The coldest in FL is Lake City's 41 (wetbulb also 41). So, even well inland in N FL, it isn't close.
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Yup ...
 
Interesting from Jacksonville, FL, NWS :

"THE RADAR THIS EVENING
WAS SHOWING ENHANCED REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER
BASIN AND ALACHUA COUNTY, BUT THIS IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING.
BRIGHT BANDING IS RELATIVELY RARE IN OUR AREA, AND THIS IS DUE TO
SNOW MELTING AS IT IS FALLING ALOFT, WITH A FILM OF WATER ON THE
MELTING SNOWFLAKE CAUSING THE RADAR TO SEE IT AS A GIANT RAINDROP
OR SMALL HAIL. BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SURFACE, THE PRECIP IS
JUST A COLD RAIN. THE RADAR, HOWEVER, WILL OVERESTIMATE
PRECIPITATION IN THE BRIGHT BANDING AREAS, SO WILL HAVE TO RELY
ON OBSERVATIONS."

So, if only Hogtown had a several thousand foot skyscraper, Phil might have been able to see snow falling at the top. That's a big win imo.
You can see it right now here (yellows): @pcbjr
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=jax&loop=yes

Cool stuff!
 
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St. Simons Island , GA, ended up with a pretty good soaking of 0.50". My area got a T. Lowest it got anywhere in GA while raining was only down to 43 and that was after many hours of steady rain. This never was a threat for wintry (other than a few token flakes, which weren't even reported) anywhere near the coast of GA/SC as the low levels were much too warm. The threat was for a cold rain and that's exactly what occurred.
 
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