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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

GFS here shows 500mb mid-upper level vertical motion and moisture increasing late this afternoon into this evening. Will be an abrupt end to the snow on the backside and blue skies in the morning for early pictures

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griteater said:
GFS here shows 500mb mid-upper level vertical motion and moisture increasing late this afternoon into this evening. Will be an abrupt end to the snow on the backside and blue skies in the morning for early pictures

iNe9fmx.gif


6i5IoCi.gif
Click to expand...
Thing almost went comma head there near the end
 
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I was going to make a call map yesterday but the shifting in the models just made it too difficult to pinpoint totals (especially further west).
I am banking on their being more precip than models have been showing with decent ratios. Looking at the radar you can see it's much healthier than models are showing and that phasing energy is just too much in a prime spot for most east of the apps to not get a decent moisture fetch. Couple that with under modeled FGEN driven precip and it's just screaming for a bust on the high end of totals pretty far back west. These totals might be too low honestly. Other story is the ice. Especially in the Pee Dee region and along 95 I think we easily should get a quarter of an inch of ice on average for most places.
 
I'm expecting around 1-2.5 inches of snow for Columbia and 0.5-2 inches for Aiken/Augusta. Nothing major,but just enough snow to keep us satisfied until next winter or atleast we get a pattern that conductive for a big snowfall around here. Wish us luck to truly finally our snowless streak broken today.
 
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