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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

GSP
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM EST: Upper divergence is ramping up, as indicated
by cooling cloud temps streaming into the area thanks to right
entrance region jet dynamics. This forcing is causing more snow
to fall and seed the low-level moisture across the NC mountains
(lots of reports of accumulating snow). So far, all the model
guidance seems to be struggling with this (consensus PoPs are less
than 15%). So it`s really challenging to assess how much this will
continue as we head thru the day. For now, think QPF will be very
light, and will handle with a Special Wx Statement (SPS). But an
advisory may be needed, if banding sets up (or the snow just stays
more persistent than expected). Outside the mountains, there`s
a deeper dry layer preventing the seeder-feeder mechanism at the
moment. However, both the NAM and GFS fcst soundings show overall
moistening profiles this aftn, and frontogenesis will ramp up toward
sunset, as a strong shortwave approaches from the west. The banding
will be parallel to the frontal zone (SW-NE orientation), but
the exact placement is still up for debate among the guidance. It
could very well set up over the southern and central NC mountains,
extending to the NW NC Piedmont. Then, things will shift SE, and the
best rates are still expected to be from Greenwood, SC to Cabarrus,
NC and points E. This is where our current Winter Wx Advisory is,
and that looks good. With the overall trends in the guidance since
the 00z runs trending a little higher QPF this evening further
west into the Piedmont, we may need to expand the advisory. But
there`s still not enough confidence, and will assess all the 12z
guidance and the latest radar/satellite trends before making a
decision. Will handle non-mountain snow/black ice concerns with
an SPS as well for now.
 
NE SC/Coastal NC temperatures are still pretty much steady. Crucial time imo will be late this afternoon to see if they resume dropping.
 
My sense is that GSP is waiting to decide on WWA or straight to Winter Storm Warning. If we got 1-3 that would be just on the outside IIRC. Eastern portions of Meck may be closer to WSW.

Loganelliott99 said:
Wouldn’t this be WWA level for clt?


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