Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[SimeonNC]

If these trends continue and verify then tomorrow is gonna be a crapshow for CLT, GSO, CAE, ect. Temps are gonna be below freezing for most of the day and if the snow arrives earlier than modeled like it usually does, a lot could go downhill when it comes to traffic.

 

[griteater]

Another view of how much the GFS has improved since a couple days ago

 

[HKY1994]

Another view of how much the GFS has improved since a couple days ago

If we could trend a little more it would be a state wide hit. Incredible


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[$alt]

10:1 ratios.... 00z ukmet

 

[jackendrickwx]

I hope this is just the appetizer. Really fun little flizzard so far with sideways snow at times

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Where’s our Mississippi members anything reaching the ground

 

[superjames1992]

10:1 ratios.... 00z ukmet
View attachment 109019

That’s a huge shift west over 12z!

 

[GaWx]

0Z CMC has nearly 0.50” of qpf here tomorrow night, but it just like other models has fortunately been slowly warming from run to run with the wetter conditions/western shifts of the main precip. At one point on older runs, Fri night was almost entirely looking to be at 32 or lower. Now it is looking to be a few degrees above 32 much of the night. Fingers crossed!

Edit for typo

 

[DopplerWx]

10:1 ratios.... 00z ukmet
View attachment 109019

Ukie has been pretty Far East too, great to see it come west.

 

[weather bubba]

10:1 ratios.... 00z ukmet
View attachment 109019

On Spectrum 14 news one of the meteorologists was saying that there is the possibility that snowfall ratios with this storm could be as high as 15 to 1. That would up these amounts significantly.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

For my backyard, CMC has better lift in the mid levels(esp at 700mb height), but isn't as moist as the GFS. Still produces a little under an inch of snow here. If I could get GFS's moisture profile with CMC's UVV's in the mid levels, something could actually happen here tomorrow.

 

[$alt]

On Spectrum 14 news one of the meteorologists was saying that there is the possibility that snowfall ratios with this storm could be as high as 15 to 1. That would up these amounts significantly.

Yeah, our local guys in CAE are saying a "flurry" possibly a dusting. heh.

 

[Stormsfury]

0Z CMC has nearly 0.50” of qpf here tomorrow night, but it just like other models has fortunately been slowly warming from run to run with the wetter conditions/western shifts of the main precip. At one point on older runs, last night was almost entirely looking to be at 32 or lower. Now it is looking to be a few degrees above 32 much of the night. Fingers crossed!

Per KCHS, they're going more towards the NAM thermal profiles on low level cold advection crashing SFC Temps a bit quicker than shown from other modeling (due to NAM performance of wedges better than most). Savannah probably escapes a lot of icing... probably up to .1" but if 00z and overnight trends continue, I really believe ice storm warnings may replace the current advisory in the Quad Counties in SC...

 

[brendan123]

Wouldn't be surprised if blizzard criteria is met somewhere on the NC/VA coast, already gusting to 30-35 in some spots along the Chesapeake Bay and OBX

 

[$alt]

Wouldn't be surprised if blizzard criteria is met somewhere on the NC/VA coast, already gusting to 30-35 in some spots along the Chesapeake Bay and OBX

are warnings standard across most areas? I just read 25mph sustained meets criteria..

 

[jackendrickwx]

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Damn I just checked the models for the first time in 24 hours and see this has gotten kinda close here. I'm gonna drive to my families place on the SE metro if this continues.

 

[brendan123]

are warnings standard across most areas? I just read 25mph sustained meets criteria..

I think that's the criteria and it could (and likely will) be met but the Wakefield NWS is pretty conservative and I doubt they'll issue one

 

[griteater]

@snowlover91 has been posting these, but this is the 00z RDPS Ensemble members. Various solutions in here still....some with snow back into Atlanta

 

[bnathanb1982]

For my backyard, CMC has better lift in the mid levels(esp at 700mb height), but isn't as moist as the GFS. Still produces a little under an inch of snow here. If I could get GFS's moisture profile with CMC's UVV's in the mid levels, something could actually happen here tomorrow.

I know it hasn't been as cold leading up to the event, however remember is 2014 it only took an inch of snow to shut down northern GA.