And it was yesterday when he posted it
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
The 18z RGEM was a little lighter/east of the 12z run, I’ll say. Still pretty good, relatively speaking, though. Could be the beginning of a fold, but we shall see…
packfan98
Moderator
The Northern Stream energy was a little weaker and more positively tilted on the 18z RGEM. It's still gives a good footprint of snow, but not as much as 12z.
iGRXY
Member
Still good and still the furthest west solution
Yeah starting to lose the best model we had but we still got 24 hours for this to come back W/NW a tick, let's see how the 0z models look tonight as Shane pointed out, all pieces of energy will be fully sampled at that point.
Interesting how the Kuchera is picking up on the ratios for the RGEM, showing 5” versus 3-4” for Durham on the 10:1 maps.
Downeastnc
Member
I was thinking more like Dec 2000
Honestly though I am happy with my 3-5" forecast that's almost my annual average in one storm....and there is still enough model support for it.
How reliable is the RGEM when it's close to gametime?
Other then the mountains/foothills ?
Shaggy
Member
It may be wrong but man has it been consistent
It’s a pretty good model. Ryan Maue is a big fan IIRC. It certainly is on its own to some extent, though the GFS supports it pretty well at this point (we’ll see if that still holds true in 30 minutes at 18z). I wouldn’t discount it as a bad model, but it certainly is presenting a rather extreme scenario at this point that probably shouldn’t be a median forecast.
It's been very good this winter at this range but it's kind of all alone with what it's showing so you do have to be skeptical.
Temps beginning to drop here in PGV with a bit of northerly wind, SE Wake and points ENE are in a pretty solid spot at this stage. Fixing to put the front end loader on my 1025R and pre-position for clearing the driveway, this will be a first, stoked.
A wobble, hopefully, but that's 3 wobbles in a row in the wrong direction, in terms of amounts. At what point do we concede that a wobble is a trend?
griteater
Member
Typically the models will kind of converge when they are different like this......as opposed to any one model being the sole winner. Let's see what the GFS says
RAH wrote a brief AFD for tonight's system but has yet to write it for tomorrow, they must be writing a novel