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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

So right now it looks like the GFS/NAM/UKMET (to a lesser extent) against every other model out there. I thought the GFS and NAM looked a little better at 00z, but to have complete whiffs on some of the models at this stage is definitely a cause for concern.
 
The GFS runs continue to on their own pretty much have the 2nd wave’s northern extent of its precip precariously close to here Sat afternoon and evening. The 0Z GEFS, like recent GEFS, also still shows certain members that have something similar. This period is still a very cold period that is subject to ZR should precip make it back up this far north. Any opinions about the GFS with this wave?

0Z GFS 2nd wave:

B56F1B3E-BC6D-4C68-B23E-BAF0A736A974.png7D18B4CB-B2AA-4EBC-9339-D7ADA4B46519.png


0Z GEFS 2nd wave: some members do have precip even north of here:
68E45F9F-178A-43A6-AF70-6C6C0192A317.pngD86CEB4B-A47F-4FF5-B96A-021DB814B71F.png
E0B7DE2F-C0A8-46B6-8BA7-053C12378B8D.png
 
GaWx said:
The GFS runs continue to on their own pretty much have the 2nd wave’s northern extent of its precip precariously close to here Sat afternoon and evening. The 0Z GEFS, like recent GEFS, also still shows certain members that have something similar. This period is still a very cold period that is subject to ZR should precip make it back up this far north. Any opinions about the GFS with this wave?

0Z GFS 2nd wave:

View attachment 108579View attachment 108580


0Z GEFS 2nd wave:
View attachment 108581View attachment 108582
View attachment 108583
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Saw that earlier. These are the sneaker systems that typically burnt us back in the 80s when modeling was nowhere near advanced as it is today.
 
Euro continues the slight trend. 18z tomorrow, expect it. Slight improvements at 500mb, more moisture. I am comparing with 12z, btw, not previous 18z.
 
Euro pretty good run for us eastern NC folks......really almost all models have PGV around 4-6" just need that to hold serve.

sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
superjames1992 said:
The 00z Euro ticked east by a good 50 miles versus 18z. Good hit for PGV up to ORF. Much worse for RDU. I guess I should‘ve went to bed before Dr. No hit. ?
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Really we just need the northern stream to go neutral over NC this will slow the whole thing down....plus deepen the 850's and give us snow longer with better deeper cold....and its so close to doing that...the biggest reason we dont score big here is it over so fast,
 
Downeastnc said:
Really we just need the northern stream to go neutral over NC this will slow the whole thing down....plus deepen the 850's and give us snow longer with better deeper cold....and its so close to doing that...the biggest reason we dont score big here is it over so fast,
Click to expand...
latest point and click from MHX has us going all snow from 11pm friday till 11am saturday.
 
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