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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

The problem is you cant trust the models on any given run at this point, it just as liable to go back to a whiff next run, the only trend is there is no clear cut trend....we use to call this wind shield wiping runs where there are too many moving pieces and the models just cant get a handle on all the little nuances that impact this.....which is why this is liable to frustrate the hell out of us all the way up to game time.....

What I would love to see is by 12Z tomorrow is some solid agreement in the hi res stuff.....preferably into a monster central and eastern NC hit....
 
It wasn't always phase dependent. The northern stream could have done this all on it's own if it were sharper, slower, and dug. The phase idea was kinda a "glory" thing if everything lined up perfectly. We started to lose the idea of the northern stream getting it done on it's own, so then the phase became the needed ingredient as we get closer to verification time.
 
Downeastnc said:
The problem is you cant trust the models on any given run at this point, it just as liable to go back to a whiff next run, the only trend is there is no clear cut trend....we use to call this wind shield wiping runs where there are too many moving pieces and the models just cant get a handle on all the little nuances that impact this.....which is why this is liable to frustrate the hell out of us all the way up to game time.....

What I would love to see is by 12Z tomorrow is some solid agreement in the hi res stuff.....preferably into a monster central and eastern NC hit....
Click to expand...
You sure you dont want 85 and sunny tomorrow? lol
 
Phases are harder when northern stream is in front of southern stream energy. Much easier to catch/ phase when northetn stream trails/ comes in behind the southern stream.
 
Idk guys, just look for more atlantic ridging to slow the northern stream down a bit.. cause it to dig a bit and tilt better than looking like a positively tilted trainwreck.

there's still room for all of that, by the way.... it's not like we need 100% changes here.. frank is right about this situation.
 
The reason why the ICON looked is this. N/S was further west.icon_z500_vort_us_fh51_trend.gif
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png
 
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