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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

brendan123 said:
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It stopped ticking SE at least. Likely doesn't get back to anywhere near as amplified as it was in earlier runs, but a few more NW shifts with the precip seem possible.
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That surface low did trend west well over 100 miles, so better overall. I am still more interested in the other output coming up than the post 48 hr NAM.
 
Stormsfury said:
Already been pondering this. There's so much energy darted around, that the physics of losing one causes feedback on other pieces that are observed on outputs.
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It just points out they need to spend the money for more buoys at sea, and sensors on land. The models are only as good is the input data, and when you get a complicated set up, they just spin their eyes and drool, lol.
 
What is it that’s causing this storm to go out to sea. Iv never seen this before. It’s almost always a guarantee for it to come back to us.
 
Stephenb888 said:
What is it that’s causing this storm to go out to sea. Iv never seen this before. It’s almost always a guarantee for it to come back to us.
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A lot of things but in quick summary the northern stream is progressive and there's nothing going on to stop it (at this point)

The most supreme runs with most precip well inland had more ridging in the atlantic and it caused the northern stream to slow and the southern wave to catch up/vice versa.
 
Stephenb888 said:
What is it that’s causing this storm to go out to sea. Iv never seen this before. It’s almost always a guarantee for it to come back to us.
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Really nothing is going out to sea because there’s no LP that forms until it’s off the Carolina coast. The wave in the southwest and the northern stream need to phase together as the northern branch swings down. Problem is the northern branch is moving too fast and about the only thing that can slow it down is the Atlantic ridge. If that trends stronger then it can slow the N/S down and the wave in the southwest can catch up for a phase. Problem is you run the risk of more WAA in the upper levels causing more ice and sleet. It has to be a perfect balance for snow for most of us outside of those who live east of 95.
 
I am going to say this is one of the bigger fails I have seen in a while. I guess it was always phase dependent and the phase we do not seem to get this time. I have seen a few slip away to the SE but this was hero to 0 in the short range.

3K NAMhas a backside frontal flizzard tomorrow, so I guess I will hug that ?

Hope the coastal sections real this one in!
 
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