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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

frank ocean said:
honestly so far i don't hate this run, heights are higher in the east, parent trough feels a little less positively titled, our northern stream shortwave looks like it's leaning back further west a touch, interested to see where this rolls
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We've seen the Nam really change drastically in the hours leading up to many events through the years. So it being dry in and of itself is not all that concerning. The trend across most model suites over the course of the day toward dry has been a bit concerning.

That said, as you pointed out, the things that need to change aren't that drastic. It's not we have a wave in Maine and a wave in Texas and we need to get them to merge within the next 36 hours. It's not like we need an arctic air mass to appear out of nowhere. We just need a few small changes to a few features that are already on the field. That's doable, at least to an extent.

What if, over the course of the day, models have not been able to see an influential piece of energy that wasn't in a well-sampled location that is potentially an influencing agent on the flow? Maybe that comes back into better view tonight. I don't know, but we're not asking for or needing a ton here.

Anyway, we have an arctic front and a couple of pieces of energy in pretty close proximity to each other. You never know.
 
frank ocean said:
honestly so far i don't hate this run, heights are higher in the east, parent trough feels a little less positively titled, our northern stream shortwave looks like it's leaning back further west a touch, interested to see where this rolls
Click to expand...
The amount of run to run changes and general disagreement between models is a real mess....hate to have to forecast this...I hate to even say it even but this is gonna be one now casting as it happens systems
 
Hard on a man trying to squeeze .10 to.20 more moisture out of th atmosphere. Thats all the adjustment We need
 
Rain Cold said:
We've seen the Nam really change drastically in the hours leading up to many events through the years. So it being dry in and of itself is not all that concerning. The trend across most model suites over the course of the day toward dry has been a bit concerning.

That said, as you pointed out, the things that need to change aren't that drastic. It's not we have a wave in Maine and a wave in Texas and we need to get them to merge within the next 36 hours. It's not like we need an arctic air mass to appear out of nowhere. We just need a few small changes to a few features that are already on the field. That's doable, at least to an extent.

What if, over the course of the day, models have not been able to see an influential piece of energy that wasn't in a well-sampled location that is potentially an influencing agent on the flow? Maybe that comes back into better view tonight. I don't know, but we're not asking for or needing a ton here.

Anyway, we have an arctic front and a couple of pieces of energy in pretty close proximity to each other. You never know.
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Already been pondering this. There's so much energy darted around, that the physics of losing one causes feedback on other pieces that are observed on outputs.
 
Honestly looks like all the CAMs are agreeing on ENC tonight, including the hi res fv3
 
Downeastnc said:
The amount of run to run changes and general disagreement between models is a real mess....hate to have to forecast this...I hate to even say it even but this is gonna be one now casting as it happens systems
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I see the NAM as a bit better. Lets not forget what the euro/icon showed at 18Z. What if they improve just a bit. Everything IS NOT doom and gloom tonight.
 
As doom and gloom as this system appears, the bust high potential on this is very very big IMO. As others have stated, the players are on the field. And we’re getting what we want with our 2 pieces of energy, it’s just happening too late on the models. This easily could phase earlier and we get a very good storm across the Carolinas and Georgia. The now casting of this event I think is going to be a lot more unknown than any other storm that trended poorly the closer we got and everyone was just holding out for a glimpse of hope. This very easily could turn into a major winter storm at go time. That bust potential is very much in play here.
 
In the broad scheme of things, the models all agree of a much drier, less amplified idea. So we do have agreement on that front. Its not like the GFS & Euro are at odds with one wrapped up system vs nothing.
 
iGRXY said:
As doom and gloom as this system appears, the bust high potential on this is very very big IMO. As others have stated, the players are on the field. And we’re getting what we want with our 2 pieces of energy, it’s just happening too late on the models. This easily could phase earlier and we get a very good storm across the Carolinas and Georgia. The now casting of this event I think is going to be a lot more unknown than any other storm that trended poorly the closer we got and everyone was just holding out for a glimpse of hope. This very easily could turn into a major winter storm at go time. That bust potential is very much in play here.
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As much as I'd like to believe it that would be a model bust of epic proportions considering all the consensus on a dryer situation overall on Friday.
 
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