Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[Rain Cold]

Little surprised to see this from RAH, 7 pm update, they are sticking to their guns

View attachment 108503

They usually make adjustments slowly. It's going to be hard not to cut those drastically if the zero Zs come in like a desert.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Southern stream looks better on NAM tho not sure it matters though

 

[iGRXY]

Southern stream looks better on NAM tho not sure it matters though

Got a feeling the outcome is set regardless of the small tweaks we get here and there. It’s going to take more than small shifts of the waves to get this back for most of us

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We suck, normally we do the opposite

 

[tempo47]

Is it even possible this close for a forecast to drastically change?

 

[ILMRoss]

Wonder how the stronger WAR effete this run

stronger se ridge is good because it takes the mid-level winds and gives them a bit more of a southerly component which would lead to more veering- the more veering we can get the more lift we produce. at least that's how i read it

Got a feeling the outcome is set regardless of the small tweaks we get here and there. It’s going to take more than small shifts of the waves to get this back for most of us

The tough thing is that I'm looking at the difference at 5h between last night's 00z banger and the other runs today and... it's not that much difference. This is a pretty high leverage situation where small tweaks can mean the difference between nothing and inches in select counties

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This might be the main show now lol

 

[iGRXY]

stronger se ridge is good because it takes the mid-level winds and gives them a bit more of a southerly component which would lead to more veering- the more veering we can get the more lift we produce. at least that's how i read it

The tough thing is that I'm looking at the difference at 5h between last night's 00z banger and the other runs today and... it's not that much difference. This is a pretty high leverage situation where small tweaks can mean the difference between nothing and inches in select counties

Definitely can get those small tweaks to get this one back. Starting with more WAR to slow down our N/S. Usually that trends stronger than models show but we need it to flex more and then worry about the potential WAA later. But it’s just not trending that way enough for me to think this is going to be an event west of 95 at this point. Maybe we can get a miracle tho

 

[SouthGarnerSleet]

Little surprised to see this from RAH, 7 pm update, they are sticking to their guns

View attachment 108503

They don’t react to random Nam and gfs 18z runs as much as the forum.

 

[ILMRoss]

honestly so far i don't hate this run, heights are higher in the east, parent trough feels a little less positively titled, our northern stream shortwave looks like it's leaning back further west a touch, interested to see where this rolls

 

[BullCityWx]

They don’t react to random Nam and gfs 18z runs as much as the forum.

That’s the whole professional thing

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM is at least slightly better

 

[lexxnchloe]

NAM is at least slightly better

alot better

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Chazwin]

Is it even possible this close for a forecast to drastically change?

Sure, but we need to see some significant changes right more in line of what we saw with the 18z Euro and we just aren’t seeing that on the NAM.

 

[iGRXY]

NAM at least has moisture back to the 95 corridor. That alone is a big improvement but idk how you could’ve had a worse run than the 18z

 

[lexxnchloe]

View attachment 108512View attachment 108513

An improvement.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Shawn]

fwiw: Check qpf maps, not simulated reflectivity. They can be deceiving.

edit: dont forget you need adequate moisture in the snow growth region to make snowflakes.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Now lets see if the icon and gfs get a bit better.