Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[iGRXY]

Idk guys it may not be in the cards. The trends are undeniable. It’s gonna be hard to kick that wave out fast enough to get interaction

SW isn't moving. Only hope is the N/S digs like crazy and forces a phase similar to the RGEM and NAM from last night.

 

[iGRXY]

For once 850's aren't an issue but the the way this has trended I would be really surprised is anyone west of 95 see's more than an inch or 2 and that may be pushing it. Even the coastal sections of NC have gone from a pretty big 6-12" monster to more of a 2-5" event which is definitely still nice but not compared to what it was looking like.

 

[NCSNOW]

Keep an eye on these table scraps left behind. That front piece of SS energy got juicier. Need a sneaky NS vort to come in behind one we are tracking.

 

[Chazwin]

What hurts the most for mby is there's so much cold. Temps aren't even a issue, all snow right there. But can't get a storm to even appear.

Meh, moving on. Got about 10 days left of the pattern. Onward and forward.

Couldn’t agree more. This wouldn’t have even been borderline down my way… this could have been a chance at daytime snow with temperatures well down into the 20s… something you just don’t get here much

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS at least has this

This reminds me of jan 2018, not the coastal but the second system, it was hinging on northern stream as well

 

[KyloG]

18z GEM

 

[wake4est]

18z GEM

View attachment 108425

“Alexa, convert 10mm to inches and multiply by 10.” ?

 

[Ward Cleaver]

No, the GFS was not a “slight improvement“.

 

[KyloG]

“Alexa, convert 10mm to inches and multiply by 10.” ?

Multiply by 15 ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Still no model hopping onto the NAM solution .. but they do look like more of what the HRRR was trying to show

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

No, the GFS was not a “slight improvement“.

View attachment 108426

It wasn't for the vast majority of us with one exception. The far, far SE corner of NC (including ILM), and the Pee Dee region of SC.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Rap is dog crap at H5

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Rap is dog crap at H5

Literally has squat

 

[Sctvman]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This might go down as one of the biggest fails if this happens

 

[Shaggy]

This might go down as one of the biggest fails if this happens View attachment 108429

Nah I've seen epic bust my entire life this would be number 101 thats all

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[wow]

This might go down as one of the biggest fails if this happens View attachment 108429

No that would be December 2, 2000 which looks a lot like this.. But at that time the models were showing 8+" all the way back to the foothills to the end.. Then it ... just didn't happen. The day the ETA died.

 

[Chazwin]

This might go down as one of the biggest fails if this happens View attachment 108429

I mean honestly the only thing I can compare it to is the December 2000 bust that occurred completely at in the last 12 hours, but at least eastern NC was able to get some good snow out of it… at this rate, I really wonder if anyone in the Carolinas gets anything more than token flakes. We can at least hope the HRRR is onto something with the frontal passage tomorrow night.

 

[superjames1992]

We are really melting down over the long range RAP now? ?