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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

There is no storm without a robust wave or a combination of the two waves. Right now we have a front with a couple of weak jabroni waves that miss each other. Good lesson: NEVER expect the SREF to lead the way on anything. 102 pages for clouds.
 
Only thing from the the 3K is it is one badass Ice storm along and east of 95 in SC and SE NC. Looking at the soundings, It's definitely all ZR and it's falling into temps in the upper 20's.
 
this was last nights run. just unreal how quick this went to **** in 3 runs.
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_50.png

today:
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_44.png
 
This crash and burn of a system is going to creep into the annuals if something don't flip back pretty quick. The N/S is destroying this system and it's gonna be in Bermuda before its said and done.
 
As quickly as this went downhill, it can come back uphill just as quick. At least wait till op runs come out before discrediting the potentional of this storm. Precipitation shield will shift some west. East of raleigh and north of greenville, nc will still see the biggest impacts in my opinion.
 
CaryWx said:
January 2017. It shifted the Triangle plus Charlotte right out of the picture in last 36hrs. That was a NW trend though.
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Yeah but even that was more of trend based on thermals. CLT still had close to the forecasted QPF, just more of it come down as rain and official the airport still 2” of snow/sleet. What the NAM has done the last 3 runs is just crazy. What really gives me pause is comparing to the HRRR… in this run the NAM even basically dried up the frontal passage and first wave as well, while the HRRR has been trending wetter on that all day. Yes it’s the long range HRRR, but it’s really done very well with these set ups in the Carolinas which is why I give it some weight. Both models are ran off the same data, so it certainly gives you reason for pause
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah but even that was more of s trend based on thermals. CLT still had close to the forecasted QPF, just more of it come down as rain and official the airport still 2” of snow/sleet. What the NAM has done the last 3 runs is just crazy. What really gives me pause is comparing to the HRRR… in this run the NAM even basically dried up the frontal passage and first wave as well, while the HRRR has been trending wetter on that all day. Yes it’s the long range HRRR, but it’s really done very well with these set ups in the Carolinas which is why I give it some weight. Both models are ran off the same data, so it certainly gives you reason for pause
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FGEN and overrunning is going to happen causing more precip than what the models are showing as we have stated multiple times. Problem is the main precip shield on the models is going so far SE that even the additional NW coverage that they aren't picking up on is starting to look like it might go as far west as 95 but is trending to maybe only the immediate coast even getting any precip.
 
Rain Cold said:
There is no storm without a robust wave or a combination of the two waves. Right now we have a front with a couple of weak jabroni waves that miss each other. Good lesson: NEVER expect the SREF to lead the way on anything. 102 pages for clouds.
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I'm not a big fan of the SREF, It usually is the last place you can find hope in a storm. But, Jan 28 2014, it was the only model that gave the precip a chance to hit the ground in central Al......I guess even a blind pig does find an acorn sometimes ?
 
Isn't that early hour Icon stuff part of the initial frontal passage? Nothing to do with the big dog that had been progged on the back?

Edit: I can see something going on in the gulf over texas; guess we'll see.
 
iGRXY said:
FGEN and overrunning is going to happen causing more precip than what the models are showing as we have stated multiple times. Problem is the main precip shield on the models is going so far SE that even the additional NW coverage that they aren't picking up on is starting to look like it might go as far west as 95 but is trending to maybe only the immediate coast even getting any precip.
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Yeah I get that with the 2nd wave, but like I said the NAM just basically dried up the frontal passage and the wave that’s coming through at that time..: the HRRR has been showing more moisture with it
 
Shawn said:
Isn't that early hour Icon stuff part of the initial frontal passage? Nothing to do with the big dog that had been progged on the back?

Edit: I can see something going on in the gulf over texas; guess we'll see.
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Yeah, it is, but the alignment looks a bit better to me, as a result, for the second part. Of course, famous last words and all that…
 
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