my god.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Gonna park this here, current hazards, and will post this time tomorrow and again on Friday. Those are winter storm warnings in southern TX, criteria threshold while low is still impressive.
The ol south east trend not even Nostradamus could’ve seen that coming!
alfoman
Member
Absolutely crazy to see the WAR recede further and further each run, like the exact OPPOSITE of what we've expierenced a million times. Of course this comes during the one time we do not need it to.
iGRXY
Member
This is basically the entire event.
iGRXY
Member
Only hope is that the WAR is being undermodeled like usual to help slow down the N/S. The SW in the southwest actually trended better but the N/S is progressing too far east too fast.
Looking like the second wave might be a complete whiff out to hr 51. Not good, LOL. Surprising after the 15z SREF.
Cary_Snow95
Member
I’m really beginning to think this is gonna be a frontal passage with a little cold chasing moisture
i mean this is hall of fail worthy.
I mean I have never seen this model dry up that much over this few runs ever.
iGRXY
Member
3K has more precip further north but it's really a mute point as none of it is snow and it's really restricted to SE NC and along and south of 20.
snowlover91
Member
The 3km is better than 12km nam with some ice and snow in extreme eastern nc, but worse than its 12z run.
iGRXY
Member
All the NAM has is a dried up Frontal passage as it crosses the Apps and that's it. Just cold and dry.
It really surprising to see this after that HRRR and Sref… I wasn’t expecting it to come back to last night’s dream solution, but I thought it might be a little improved
The 18z NAM is legit like a 200 mile shift east in sensible weather. Unreal. I’m definitely concerned now.
iGRXY
Member
3K gets it going more but again it's basically light snow showers for about 30 miles and the rest is sleet and ZR along and east of 95
I mean seriously has any shift like that every occurred with the NAM in such a short amount of time?? I don’t remember it.
snowlover91
Member
It's easy to see at the 7h level why the NAM has been getting worse. Look at the 6z run vs 18z. The 7h lift is offshore and flatter = no lift or moisture transport over NC.
January 2017. It shifted the Triangle plus Charlotte right out of the picture in last 36hrs. That was a NW trend though.