HixsonWX
Member
Interesting, I'm clicking on the 12z NAM on Pivotal and it is apparently opening the 00z run. I didn't see that until you pointed it out.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
HixsonWX
Member
Yep, Nevermind - I see the 12z NAM is on the same train as the other models. Don't mind me ?
well i will post good news where i can find it since we all need it.
hrrr looking better with precip at least early on with the first wave compared to its 12z run.
18z:
12z:
hrrr looking better with precip at least early on with the first wave compared to its 12z run.
18z:
I think @Myfrotho704_ was certainly on to something a page or so back talking about the SW flow aloft overrunning the cold air. The maps he posted clearly showed that and I'll be shocked if precip shield doesn't verify slightly NW and with a little more qpf than projected atm. If true, we'll probably see all the short range models start to pick up on that either 0z tonight or 6z tomorrow, just mho
Interesting potential western trend from half of the SREF members. It isn’t much but it is good news.
good to see, possible sign we see some precip nudge west in the 18z suite.
If I’m having to hang my hat on the Sref then I know its been a rough day. I have bad memories of how bad it busted for me in February 2015
Often is a sign that the NAM (and quite possibly other modeling) will follow at 18z, given the similarities between the SREF and NAM
I do agree with that. Still I try to not get caught up in any of the specifics it might throw out.
brendan123
Member
HRRR breaks out precip at the end of its run
Interesting 
long range hrrr throwing us a bone. i will take any hope i can find right now.
really gets going, would love to see the nam show this shortly.
The wave on the NAM looks a little sharper.
Yes it is. Since the more expansive precip on the west side of the system comes from strong FGEN forcing, the HRRR should be able to pick up on it before other models. This past storm with the front end snow on Saturday night is a great example,long range hrrr throwing us a bone. i will take any hope i can find right now.
The other thing the HRRR is really trying to do is make that first wave overnight Thursday and early Friday more robust with frozen precip starting earlier
iGRXY
Member
The SW doesn't look like it's getting stretched at 27. Looks like it's more in position to consolidate but where it goes from here is anyone's guess.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Looks pretty similar to me. No big changes
Cary_Snow95
Member
Maybe a little more stream interaction at 26