Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[BirdManDoomW]

Updated 2 call map (not final). Black) Cloudy , Light Blue north) 1” snow/sleet, Light Blue west all snow dusting to 1”, Dark Blue 2-4” snow/sleet, Hot Pink 6-10”+, Purple Icy mess glaze to 0.25”.

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah things will have to begin moving further NW by 0Z tonight if it’s going to happen. There will be more precip on the NW side but the way this is trending, that may struggle to get back to Charlotte at this point.

Agreed… what’s frustrating about watching this is that I honestly don’t see anything in the looks that would stop this from shifting NW or push int further east… yet here we are for the last 12 hours seeing miss wide right

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I would hate to be Raleigh DOT right now, rain storm before a winter storm means ouch. Same for most of eastern NC. How do you treat the roads?

 

[Bannerdude]

I would hate to be Raleigh DOT right now, rain storm before a winter storm means ouch. Same for most of eastern NC. How do you treat the roads?

Rock salt instead of salt brine. Not as good a treatment but it has more staying power when rain is expected before the frozen precipitation starts.

 

[ryan1234]

The globals were "meh" during the last event at this time. The HRRR was on point when we got into game time. with the initial band and the ULL keeping precip going when literally every other model showed it drying up in N GA. Hope is beginning to dwindle a bit, but it's certainly far from over.

 

[Chandler]

Oh no… even the Korean is south

 

[Jan88]

The weather channel map is… aggressive if you believe the 12z runs ??


View attachment 108287

Might b correct in eastern NC.western Carolinas not likely

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The globals were "meh" during the last event at this time. The HRRR was on point when we got into game time. with the initial band and the ULL keeping precip going when literally every other model showed it drying up in N GA. Hope is beginning to dwindle a bit, but it's certainly far from over.

The HRRR was too cold and wet here. Busted badly

 

[ryan1234]

The HRRR was too cold and wet here. Busted badly

To be fair, this is an entirely different setup. Temps were always an issue for most of metro ATL- minus the NE suburbs.

 

[WeatherNC]

Suppression trends are actually preferred at this stage, one does not want to see Roxboro getting more SN than Raleigh for the 29th time this century. Fully expecting a slight NW trend inside 48 with a bit more amplification than the 12Z suite suggested. Watch...

 

[FallsLake]

Lol.. The euro would be still have the Wake County split; except in this case folks in the far north (me) would get 1.5", and folks in the south and east would get close to 5". Heck even Wake Forest looks to get ~4". That gradient is going to be a killer.

 

[Chandler]

EPS

 

[Faco Thomas]

Suppression trends are actually preferred at this stage, one does not want to see Roxboro getting more SN than Raleigh for the 29th time this century. Fully expecting a slight NW trend inside 48 with a bit more amplification than the 12Z suite suggested. Watch...

This isn't going to help Upstate or the Midlands of South Carolina. There was barely any precip in South Carolina at all on the Euro. This is quickly trending towards just a cold front for people outside of the NE North Carolina and SE Virgina.

 

[KyloG]

GEFS/EPS/NAM/RGEM....all on top of each other. If we can get one little tick west next 24 hours. ?

 

[malak05]

Carolinas under the gun losing it to mysterious suppression which shouldn't be the case and all parts of West SE are out of the game at moment. The 18z and 0z runs today are probably the last hurrah for alot of people if no large jogs westward with this system we are out of it. Now if it comes back you just have to throw your hands up with these models and ask what they heck is it with these things

 

[brendan123]

I know most people in here hate mentions of Jan 2017, but I think it's somewhat comparable to this system as it was another late blooming snow setup like what we're likely looking at now. I do remember that the bullseye for snow was around Elizabeth City/the OBX for a little while, but then things shifted about 30 miles northwest and those areas saw mostly sleet while areas to the NW saw close to a foot.
Here's what the Euro looked like 3-4 days out... so a shorter window than we had then. I doubt any NW trend will be that severe, if there is a NW trend at all. But if you're in SE Virginia or Central NC, I wouldn't give up hope just yet.

 

[Heelyes]

I know most people in here hate mentions of Jan 2017, but I think it's somewhat comparable to this system as it was another late blooming snow setup like what we're likely looking at now. I do remember that the bullseye for snow was around Elizabeth City/the OBX for a little while, but then things shifted about 30 miles northwest and those areas saw mostly sleet while areas to the NW saw close to a foot. View attachment 108347
Here's what the Euro looked like 3-4 days out... so a shorter window than we had then. I doubt any NW trend will be that severe, if there is a NW trend at all. But if you're in SE Virginia or Central NC, I wouldn't give up hope just yet.

That map is exactly the right amount imby, I got 10-12

 

[HixsonWX]

The GFS and Euro seem intent on keeping this a coastal system but the NAM starts making things interesting for ATL/North GA around hour 69. Does anyone think the mesoscale models could be picking up on something as the forecast range moves closer into their wheelhouse and we could start seeing more of the northwest trend?

 

[WXinCanton]

The GFS and Euro seem intent on keeping this a coastal system but the NAM starts making things interesting for ATL/North GA around hour 69. Does anyone think the mesoscle models could be picking up on something as the forecast range moves closer into their wheelhouse and we could

The GFS and Euro seem intent on keeping this a coastal system but the NAM starts making things interesting for ATL/North GA around hour 69. Does anyone think the mesoscale models could be picking up on something as the forecast range moves closer into their wheelhouse and we could start seeing more of the northwest trend?

There have been 2 runs of NAM since the 0Z run you show. They look nothing like that

 

[BullCityWx]

Should be telling to everybody that EPS still looks that robust