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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Downeastnc said:
Snow map seems off though, I look to snow almost the whole time on that run ( solid 12 hrs ) and it has me at 1" of QPF and 4-5" of snow....even at 8:1 that does not work....especially over the I 95 corridor were they never have mixing issues on the soundings

Edit: actually it does give .3-5" before my column crashes with the front good but back west should have had higher totals


qpf_acc.us_ma.png
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Looks like you get .6" of rain on the frontal passage you need to subtract.
 
KyloG said:
Still moderate differences between GFS/Euro...normally I would say Euro is probably more right but it's really sucked lately. This is just over 2 days away.

View attachment 108219
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This is what was 'bothering' me yesterday with that 18z GFS run. It produced a good snow in the end...but going about more solely with the northern stream wave, and with a farther north NS wave to boot, is a risky play storm / precip wise. It does benefit the Greenville, NC area etc. temps wise, but that evolution increases risk of a weaker system overall. The 06z Euro is so much different
 
RGEM still doesnt get a clean handoff/connection like last nights 0z run. This is the same thing that just happened on the NAM. Only the Nam had more speration. Bottom line to max out our opportunity here, we need NS to dig down more and connect/gel with the SS energy.

500hv.conus.png
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Glad to see the ZR totals down to non-disaster levels!
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Also more sleet is being mixed in for areas closer to the coast as well on the 12Z Rgem, which is helping to prevent severe icing issues,along with less precipitation. Also the 1-2 inches of snow for the midlands of SC and getting closer to the CSRA as well. 4-6 inches of snow for Raleigh and Fayetteville. Still a hevay snowstorm for NE North Carolina and far SE Virigina. Overall,I see today trends as a net positive.
 
griteater said:
This is what was 'bothering' me yesterday with that 18z GFS run. It produced a good snow in the end...but going about more solely with the northern stream wave, and with a farther north NS wave to boot, is a risky play storm / precip wise. It does benefit the Greenville, NC area etc. temps wise, but that evolution increases risk of a weaker system overall. The 06z Euro is so much different
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Even with what we’ve seen the last few hours, it still looks to me like there should be a more expansive precip shield to the north and west. Maybe not warning criteria stuff, but maybe some advisory level. Do you think so?
 
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