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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

What has happened to the coastal low? Has it fizzled out or are the models still having difficulty figuring out what it will do?
 
What has happened to the coastal low? Has it fizzled out or are the models still having difficulty figuring out what it will do?
The wave axis isn't amped enough for the low to develop off the Southeast Coast. It won't really ramp up until it gets north of the Mason-Dixon line.
 
there is going to be a little bit of randomization where the low forms- any burst of convection now could generate enough pv/latent heat release to have influence where the low eventually forms.

we keyed on convective feedback issues with storms way west and hey, vibe check, we were right.
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there's some stuff south of bermuda but i don't see that having much influence.

not really too interested in the convective snow- not staying up til 2 to see it. i've seen thundersnow (late feb 2015) so that bucket list item is already checked off. on to the next
 
So weenie question here but while we don’t want to see a ton of sun to keep temps down, wouldn’t a little be helpful to destabilize the atmosphere for the ULL later on?
 
If this varifies over Gaston County I'll buy the GFS a bottle of Buffalo Trace! ? View attachment 111239
Vertical motion looks good in Gaston County!

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