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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

Surprised how thick the clouds are right out of the gate this morning. Help slow the thawing of the frozen ground. Speaking of frozen ground its been almost 2 weeks since that big storm and up in NW NC the yards still have a foot plus of packed ice in them.
 
12k NAM ???

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NCSNOW said:
Surprised how thick the clouds are right out of the gate this morning. Help slow the thawing of the frozen ground. Speaking of frozen ground its been almost 2 weeks since that big storm and up in NW NC the yards still have a foot plus of packed ice in them.
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I noticed that walking in to work this morning. The ground is frozen solid. That should help with sticking tonight.
 
Rain Cold said:
Watch this area here today. Nothing should be going on here. If the radar starts to light up, head to the store.

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Gale & (Possible) WWA's here on the coast here shortly..

First cup O' Joe this morning..
Looked @ the Radar..
Showed freezing precip over my head..
Went out & looked..

Sure enough It's Virga falling, from over head.

Through the (semi) broken clouds..
You could see, (Jet contrails/Cirrus clouds) are FLYING.. @ (30K?) feet West too about due North east?

Current temps are @ 32F
Winds North at 5mph..
 
Will be a interesting watch between the CAMs today as far as who resolves this band. FV3 remains consistent with its meso-low and better lift near the DGZ around the Charlotte metro. Its temps are really warm at the start though. Speaking of temps, we need to watch those as well. Some modeling has places like the southern peidmont approaching 50 today. Hopefully some of these thicker clouds can knock that down some.
 
fv3 looks good, more convection than the nam. still think we see a nice shot at t-1" from clt thru rdu. after 3 years of a trace we can't complain. i would prefer a quick burst of heavy snow vs a 6hr flizzard any day.
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Loganelliott99 said:
FWIW upper level systems are typically under modeled. Like 2 weeks ago when CLT got an extra inch. Wasn’t even showing up on models until it was happening
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Yeah that was a really bad bust by all short range models that setup. It is pretty typical for those to over perform. I press the doubt button on 50F today like many models show IF cloud cover holds
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah that was a really bad bust by all short range models that setup. It is pretty typical for those to over perform. I press the doubt button on 50F today like many models show IF cloud cover holds
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I agree. The facts that the models are even showing something is encouraging. Like on the HRRR here. I think the green areas are snow across the Piedmont IMO ACE7DC7D-4320-4528-8D0B-3DFC2C6C9215.png
 
Current DGZ/Saturation.. it's gonna be a while. Patience.

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