At this juncture most models have come into agreement with that heavy band of snow pretty much centered around I-77 corridor. I actually don’t think I’ve ever seen models show this much agreement. And the fact that it’s less than 48 hours out makes me feel Charlotte is in a good position to see snow. Obviously, things can and will change but having the Lee Trough on our side is doing is a huge favor, much like it does during summertime storms. But like summertime storms it’s hard to nail down where exactly those storms set up. So, there is likely to be some disappointment for some of us. But if we end up with a 2-4 inch snow, I will call that a win for the rest of the winter. The NE can have their fabulous February too as far as I’m concerned. Having back to back storms like this is such a rarity for us. And that in itself is pretty damn exciting if you ask me. Good luck to everyone. I hope we can all score with this one!
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
Well the sweet spot right over my house… what could go wrong?
man oh man. really good agreement now over clt.
man oh man. really good agreement now over clt.
Euro and GFS both in great agreement of 3-4" for the CLT...probably underdone too.
going to frame this sounding if it verifies, as good as it will ever get down here.
Looks like Charlotte gets plastered but then this curious band sets up along the triangle this run which helps our totals out a bit 
SnowNiner
Member
Hate seeing such a "wack-a-mole" orientation of the precip around CLT on guidance. Such a small window. Euro I score, GFS I'm fringed. Who the heck knows at this point? RGEM verifies I get nothing.
I guess I'm rooting for a nice lee side low to form and have more solid precip blossom to my west to the apps like @griteater mentioned.
I guess I'm rooting for a nice lee side low to form and have more solid precip blossom to my west to the apps like @griteater mentioned.
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Deleted member 1449
Guest
Yeah, that's why I hate relying on these things but for now this all we have to hang out hats on. We really won't know until up to go-time.
I will say…. The EURO has been very consistent with showing this now for the last few days and has had a ton of support from both the EPS and GEFS
griteater
Member
Going to be local winners and losers for sure with a splash of thunder. Euro/HRRR/ARW have the best precip shield back to the west/southwest at the moment.
First call map, a blend of everything. THIS WILL CHANGE. Tons of uncertainty still with that band, could shift more towards the upstate or could shift east, overall blend of everything favors the I-77/I-85 corridor 
GFS gives me 2.7” of snow, roughly. Not an awful run for us. Would put me at 10.2” on the season.
snowlover91
Member
Latest RAP run is solid.
snowlover91
Member
One interesting observation I've noticed is the models that crank the surface low off the coast quicker focus heavier banding in ENC/NE NC. This RAP run was a big reduction in WNC but a big increase in ENC.
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Totally being a paranoid weenie right now, but being in the "jackpot zone" two days out feels...(head scratch)...like I am being punked??
Ward Cleaver
Member
When I sample the latest point forecasts for various locations in RAH’s area, they’re not matching this morning’s probabilistic snow map. Highest totals are now west and extreme northeast. Highly likely that the afternoon discussion and map update will reflect some changes.
YetAnotherRDUGuy
Member
Yea, and if I recall the snowfall map isn't typically updated till at least 7pm.
My guess is RAH will throw out WWAs for the entire cwa even if some counties are technically below advisory criteria due to uncertainty. GSP too (just not entire cwa).