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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

NickyBGuarantee said:
Hmmm still skeptical we only deal with the upper level feature .. both the RGEM and the prior NAM develop the low by Florida and bring it fairly close to the coast .. each have a finger of moisture that reaches into central NC and then has the upper level system .. not saying it’s right but the dry slot has me confused tbh doesn’t look right .. also RGEM did fairly well and stayed fairly consistent last 2 events so let’s see what happens .. regardless it looks like many of us see snow out of this system .. even SC folks .. we’re getting more people in the game this winter all around View attachment 110938
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Same track as the CC but less precip due to no instant occlusion and 500mb cutting off north of us.


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NCSNOW said:
For what its worth rest of 6z suite: GFS, FV3 which only goes out to 60 are knocking on the door step of warning criteria snowfall: Assuming its 3 inches in 6 hours In parts of Triad.

Be nice to squeeze about 3-4 out. I still think the coastal guys, especially from SD/Met over to G-Vegas crowd and down to Wilm can score big here. Definitely our Elizabeth City / SE VA posters. It really only takes one little nudge for these guys and jury is gonna be out till it unfolds tomorrow.
"Game of Inches" as they say in football , applies to chasing this soon to be phased storm for the Coastal plain/far NE piedmont crowd.
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Yeah, I’m holding out for at least what I saw last weekend and hoping for more.
 
3km NAM might be the better one to look at .. the other nam is dead to me tbh .. you fill in that dry slot a bit more and this is a bigger deal.. can’t imagine we don’t at some point as we close in 7A21157B-45D3-4B92-9F19-FDEC3CD96AAD.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nam looks like crap
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3k looks much better.

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png
 
iGRXY said:
NAM’s dry bias is ridiculous at this point. Both the 3K and 12K did this with the storm last week and the storm 2 weeks ago at this range.
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Well just two runs ago NAM had the entire state of NC covered with snow and was dropping 12-20” across ENC. Not sure dry bias is the issue as much as the NAM is just bad since it hasn’t been maintained or updated in years.
 
snowlover91 said:
Well just two runs ago NAM had the entire state of NC covered with snow and was dropping 12-20” across ENC. Not sure dry bias is the issue as much as the NAM is just bad since it hasn’t been maintained or updated in years.
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It did the exact same thing last week about 30 hours out with basically zero precip making it past the beaches before quickly changing its tune. It’s ridiculous at this point that it continues to do this even under 48 hours.
 
oh come on guys. i really liked the nam and i think yall are being too pessimistic.
Two superb trends here- four corners shortwave keeps ticking east. I also love, love the subtle west shifts on the western edge of the longwave trough- it's ticking further west. think that favors a little more digging and helps with the tilt issue.

namconus_z500_vort_us_fh18_trend.gif

Thought the surface reflection was also remarkably reasonable. gun to my head somebody tells me "draw the precip shield of a sub 1000 lp 200 miles east of ILM" i probably draw something like this.

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_37.png

3km was a little iffier with cyclogenesis, it didn't have it building towards s florida- something to keep an eye on.
 
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