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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

Poimen said:
Here's the 3K showing a nice evolution of the band associated with the upper trough. I hate relying on these things. They can be fickle and can also disappear like a fart in the wind. But if these trends remain steady today then WSW may be needed for the 85 corridor from CLT to the Triad. Best of luck to everyone.

By the way: TD now has precip maps for the EC.
View attachment 110927
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Where do you find the lee side low forming, is that showing up still on the mesoscale models this morning? I can't find it.
 
DopplerWx said:
Are we dealing with higher ratios down here like RAH was mentioning for the Raleigh area?
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With the max lift near the DGZ like in the sounding FRO showed I would say ratios would be higher than 10. Now at the surface you have temps around freezing and near saturation so some riming would be likely lowering ratios a little.
 
Soundings definitely support minimum 10:1 ratios even with temps at the surface around 32-34 degrees. Under some of those bands you’re probably going to get 1-3” rates at times as well so even just averaging 0.5” an hour for the whole event with the majority of models showing areas east of the apps getting at least 4 hours of snow, 2” seems likely for a lot of places IMO.
 
HRRR really showing how warm the central midlands are for the event. To get things to work out down there, you want to see very heavy precipitation with very high saturation in the snow growth region. The Northern Midlands are looking to really score something huge here.....
 
Poimen said:
I don't see a lee side surface low either. Everything is relying on the upper dynamics.
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Thanks yeah, was getting interested yesterday when that started showing up. Depending on the UL dynamics again is not ideal IMO. A lot still fighting against the piedmont; surface temps and rain changeover to start, and light precip unless you're under the convective bands which will be very localized. Really like to see a mesolow start showing up again to provide more lift and precip on a broader level.
 
Shawn said:
HRRR really showing how warm the central midlands are for the event. To get things to work out down there, you want to see very heavy precipitation with very high saturation in the snow growth region. The Northern Midlands are looking to really score something huge here.....
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guess I'll drive to Newberry
 
Shawn said:
HRRR really showing how warm the central midlands are for the event. To get things to work out down there, you want to see very heavy precipitation with very high saturation in the snow growth region. The Northern Midlands are looking to really score something huge here.....
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But still with stuck strong dynamics it’s still printing out 1-2 inches in central and eastern midlands.
 
NCSNOW said:
Thats definietly the case for your area. I sit right on the line of both and preferably for myself would feel more confident in the coastal winding up and staying tugged in tight than depending on some upper level energy getting lined up just right in a pivot. This would require the ULL to stack quicker along SC coast so its deepening as it rides in tight up the NC coast, Course , there is a way to score both ways. But west of 85 no doubt your rooting for pivoting ULL. I have pretty decent/ not perfect odds whichever way it plays out.
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I've been skipped over by ULE many times, and to far west for the coastals most of the time.. So I can believe that dry slot that has been shown by every model every run!!! That said I'll be happy and surprised if we get a inch back here, unless some lee side low spins up or something that don't happen very often goes wild. lol As always in the SE we Watch And Wait.............................
 
Hmmm still skeptical we only deal with the upper level feature .. both the RGEM and the prior NAM develop the low by Florida and bring it fairly close to the coast .. each have a finger of moisture that reaches into central NC and then has the upper level system .. not saying it’s right but the dry slot has me confused tbh doesn’t look right .. also RGEM did fairly well and stayed fairly consistent last 2 events so let’s see what happens .. regardless it looks like many of us see snow out of this system .. even SC folks .. we’re getting more people in the game this winter all around 1643292010569.gif
 
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