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Wintry Winter 25-26 Preszn discussion

BIG FROSTY said:
Well, we got Bob on our side.

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I like below temps but anytime I see one of these with “winter battleground” on it I throw it out the window. That’s lazy predictions.
 
iGRXY said:
I like below temps but anytime I see one of these with “winter battleground” on it I throw it out the window. That’s lazy predictions.
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I've pretty much quit believing seasonal forecasts anyway 😂

They can't even predict next month....

And like I said before out here last winter the best storms came out of nowhere anyway and the two winters before that we had a snow hole around us during the best storm of the year with a winter storm warning 🤣
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Well, we got Bob on our side.

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Below is his 2018-9 winter precip. forecast. From it:

1. “Winter Battle Zone” area: The battle was won in Dec with a major snow during Dec. in the GSP area, much of NC (at least Charlotte, Asheville, GSO, RDU), and much of VA. But E NC, most of TN, and most of N GA, N AL, and N MS lost the battle.

2. “Icy Winter” area: I couldn’t find any ice or snow

3. “Wet Winter” zone had mainly AN rainfall. So that verified well. Actually, much of the south centered on TN had a wet winter.

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iGRXY said:
I like below temps but anytime I see one of these with “winter battleground” on it I throw it out the window. That’s lazy predictions.
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Agreed. I have seen "winter battleground" and "Icey" for my forecast time and time again and I'm still waiting on that ice for twenty years.
 
SD said:
There are actually a good amount of decent analogs in this list. When I put out my analogs it was actually slightly bn here way bn for you
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There are some very nice ones on there. 1978-79, 1981-82, 1993-94, and 2013-14 stand out to me. This board would be happy with any of them I think, even 1993-94 which did not have much snow, but did have 2 fairly significant ice events. Most on here probably do not remember the 1978-79 and 1981-82 winters, but they were both very nice with multiple big events.
 
For Greensboro I'm in the camp we we wind up -1 to possibly -2 BN temp wise for the winter and Snowfall right on climo avg. Which after the past few seasons, I will gladly take.

Refreshing we don't have to deal with enso major signals, in either direction.

I think our biggest hurdle outside of Timing, if we have one will be qpf slightly BN, especially 1st half of winter ( Dec1-Jan 15 ).
 
Does anyone know what the Wooly Worm is predicting this year? I usually see at least one in my yard every year and this year so far I haven't seen one. Seriously though, with the La Nina weakening over the US and shifting into a more neutral phase, this could mean good things about the upcoming 2025-2026 winter for the Southeastern US. This might also make long range forecasting more challenging than it already is.
 
weather bubba said:
Does anyone know what the Wooly Worm is predicting this year? I usually see at least one in my yard every year and this year so far I haven't seen one. Seriously though, with the La Nina weakening over the US and shifting into a more neutral phase, this could mean good things about the upcoming 2025-2026 winter for the Southeastern US. This might also make long range forecasting more challenging than it already is.
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Keep in mind that RONI (relative ONI that takes into account how warm the overall global tropical waters are), which has recently been ~0.3 C cooler than ONI, is forecasted to be in legit weak La Niña territory. Same probably for MEI. (I assume you’re aware of MEI.)
 
JHS said:
There are some very nice ones on there. 1978-79, 1981-82, 1993-94, and 2013-14 stand out to me. This board would be happy with any of them I think, even 1993-94 which did not have much snow, but did have 2 fairly significant ice events. Most on here probably do not remember the 1978-79 and 1981-82 winters, but they were both very nice with multiple big events.
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It seems like ‘93-94 was the winter of ice storms. The NC Piedmont/Foothills had a significant one right after Christmas, the SC upstate/ and much of NC had another in January and then the big ice storm in February
 
Chazwin said:
It seems like ‘93-94 was the winter of ice storms. The NC Piedmont/Foothills had a significant one right after Christmas, the SC upstate/ and much of NC had another in January and then the big ice storm in February
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1993-4 had a light to moderate ZR on MLK Day (Jan 17th) from Athens to the far E/NE burbs of ATL as I recall. ATL itself had very little. I was in Smyrna then and saw light icing.
 
weather bubba said:
Does anyone know what the Wooly Worm is predicting this year? I usually see at least one in my yard every year and this year so far I haven't seen one. Seriously though, with the La Nina weakening over the US and shifting into a more neutral phase, this could mean good things about the upcoming 2025-2026 winter for the Southeastern US. This might also make long range forecasting more challenging than it already is.
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The Weather According to the Woolly Worm – North Carolina State Climate Office

climate.ncsu.edu climate.ncsu.edu
 
EastmanGAWX said:
I have my doubts as to whether this image will ever happen again during my lifetime, but I will gladly take a storm that produces an inch this winter! January 21, 2025 will forever live in infamy (of a good kind) with February 9-10, 1973 and February 26, 1914 as days when the southern half of Georgia got obliterated with snow!
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I still can’t believe parts of the Florida panhandle got 10” of snow from that one. It reads like stupid weather fan fiction I would’ve written as a kid, except it actually happened this year. 👀
 
weather bubba said:
Does anyone know what the Wooly Worm is predicting this year? I usually see at least one in my yard every year and this year so far I haven't seen one. Seriously though, with the La Nina weakening over the US and shifting into a more neutral phase, this could mean good things about the upcoming 2025-2026 winter for the Southeastern US. This might also make long range forecasting more challenging than it already is.
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He's Back this year: had to take a hiatis last year due to the natural disaster . They even have a countdown up in Banner Elk.

Countdown to 48th Annual Woolly Worm Festival: 52 days away

Woolly Worm Festival - Banner Elk, NC | NC Fall Festival

Join us in Banner Elk, NC for the Woolly Worm Festival. Experience a North Carolina fall festival with fun, worm races, vendors, and more!
woollyworm.com woollyworm.com
 
What are the Solar Gurus in here saying? Didn't the sun flip poles this year, start a new 11 year cycle. Also earth magnetic poles are moving a lot. Just extra food for thought.
Since we lost Judah Cohwan ( think thats his name/spelling) theory. We need some new hysteria induced ammo to set the pre-season bar high before December rolls around and reality kicks back in.
 
superjames1992 said:
I still can’t believe parts of the Florida panhandle got 10” of snow from that one. It reads like stupid weather fan fiction I would’ve written as a kid, except it actually happened this year. 👀
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I posted the below picture earlier this year (during that event). It was from a friend of my sister that lived in the panhandle.

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