Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

[Henry2326]

2am NHC

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
more than one thousand miles east of the Windward Islands have
become less organized over the past 24 hours, and the system is
currently being affected by strong wind shear. No development is
expected through tonight while the system traverses the area of
strong wind shear. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable
environment Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Windward Islands,
and some slow development is possible during that time. By the
middle of next week, conditions over the Caribbean are expected to
be unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

 

[Henry2326]

I'm with Andy. The models have done poorly but at a lot of things. Development clearly.....Danny may be implying that 99L has the resiliency of Erin.

Icon hanging in there. Let's see if it verifies.
GFS takes it further south but pulls it back in to the gulf into Mexico.
Euro gets it to the islands as a blue speck rain event, and then it dies.

 

[Henry2326]

From Hazelton's comment about history of past 99L storms. He said "Never trust a 99L".

1999 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Invest 99L was a precursor to a number of storms, including Hurricane Cindy, Hurricane Dennis, and Hurricane Jose. This was a very active season with five major hurricanes.
Cindy - cat4, curved, no land interaction
Dennis -cat1, set the stage for Floyd 12 days later
Jose - cat2, Lesser Antilles, Barbuda and Antigua

2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season: What began as Invest 99L went on to become Hurricane Katrina, one of the most destructive and deadly hurricanes in US history.
Cat5...New Orleans

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season: In August 2016, Invest 99L was a system that eventually became Tropical Storm Hermine and later Hurricane Hermine.
Cat1 - landfall Big Bend area

 

[Brent]

It's gonna have a very fine line if its gonna be a US threat or it's going to Central America easily

The circle south of Bermuda(basically following Erin) looks like it will be Fernand first

 

[jrips27]

 

[NCSNOW]

Wave due east of islands getting that "I think I can" look, more an more.

 

[Henry2326]

99L - 2 thoughts:
(1) it stays weak, misses a strong upper level trough of low pressure over the Eastern US and be guided westward into central America.
12z EURO AI, GFS, and CMC

(2) it strengthens and becomes more robust, it could be influenced by the trough and pulled northward out of the Carribean into the gulf.

12z Icon

Per Crown Weather Service

 

[Henry2326]

Wave due east of islands getting that "I think I can" look, more an more.

View attachment 174512

99L

 

[Henry2326]

99L
Not that I'm even close to a fan of the spaghetti models but here it is. Looks like TVCX takes the gulf option. Would guess that TVCN is close behind, since both are average consensus models.

It has the look of wanting to be somebody.

TVCX is a hurricane forecast consensus model that averages the tracks of the Global Forecast System (GFS), UKMET, and two instances of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models, with its members being weighted differently. Both TVCX and TVCN are used extensively by NHC.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Models have done a pretty good job so far this year once you take out human wishcasting.

 

[Brent]

Models have done a pretty good job so far this year once you take out human wishcasting.

Yeah Erin never made landfall or even went further west despite everyone and their grandma on TikTok swearing it would



I mean there is a chance this could turn north but it's gotta survive the Caribbean first(which a lot of models kill it off) and then not crash into Nicaragua which is also probably a very tall order

 

[Arcc]

Yeah Erin never made landfall or even went further west despite everyone and their grandma on TikTok swearing it would



I mean there is a chance this could turn north but it's gotta survive the Caribbean first(which a lot of models kill it off) and then not crash into Nicaragua which is also probably a very tall order

Euro also looks pretty clear, the northern GOM is not a welcoming place in the next ten to twelve days either.

 

[Brent]

Yeah people thought I was joking in another chat for questioning the conditions in the Gulf. Like is anyone not aware of the big fronts already coming down

Euro also looks pretty clear, the northern GOM is not a welcoming place in the next ten to twelve days either.

 

[RBR71]

Yeah people thought I was joking in another chat for questioning the conditions in the Gulf. Like is anyone not aware of the big fronts already coming down

Nope, all some folks hear is the waters are hot, they fail to recognize need more than warm ocean H2O

 

[RBR71]

Tropics must be really quiet, lexx not even posting a 420 hr Cat 7 slamming the entire EC

 

[Brent]

Tropics must be really quiet, lexx not even posting a 420 hr Cat 7 slamming the entire EC

There was a big hurricane on the 0z GFS too but it didn't last a run

It wasnt even 99L though(the timing matches if it were a Gulf threat) apparently it's a piece of something else the GFS finds

But yeah the ensembles are pretty unimpressed I heard

 

[SASQUATCH]

Nope, all some folks hear is the waters are hot, they fail to recognize need more than warm ocean H2O

A Jacuzzi is useless until you turn on the jets

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[lexxnchloe]

Tropics must be really quiet, lexx not even posting a 420 hr Cat 7 slamming the entire EC

The JB-O-METER is dead as well as he is posting alot of wrestling tweets. GFS and Euro show nothing other than a few frontal lows forming within the deep east coast trof and zippety-dodahing NE.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Tropics must be really quiet, lexx not even posting a 420 hr Cat 7 slamming the entire EC

Since you brought up 420 maps this is amazing. One trof is already off the coast blocking anything of interest and an even stronger trof is heading SE to reinforce the winter time pattern. Once all possibility for an east coast threat is over, the west atl ridge will return.

 

[Brent]

Hey maybe we're getting that dead season we are long overdue for

 

[lexxnchloe]

Nope, all some folks hear is the waters are hot, they fail to recognize need more than warm ocean H2O

 

[lexxnchloe]

No sign its going to change.

 

[GaWx]

Hey maybe we're getting that dead season we are long overdue for

We’ll see as it’s still very early but we are very much overdue for a break at least in the SE/Gulf. Fingers crossed after 2024’s devastation. Boring tracking is obviously much better than anything like that. But this kind of reminds me of the 2024 19 day lull of no storms during the first half of peak season. If so, there’s no telling how 9/15-10/15 will be.

 

[Brent]

We’ll see as it’s still very early but we are very much overdue for a break at least in the SE/Gulf. Fingers crossed after 2024’s devastation. Boring tracking is much better than anything like that. But this kind of reminds me of the 2024 19 day lull of no storms during the first half of peak season. If so, there’s no telling how 9/15-10/15 will be.

Yeah I noticed last night it was also dead for 2 and a half weeks starting 3 days ago.. And we're a storm ahead

 

[NoSnowATL]

Weather patterns make hurricanes not warm waters. I hope we can put the warm water = steroid season craziness to bed.

 

[GaWx]

WeatherTiger update is out: opinions?

Real-time 2025 Atlantic hurricane season projections

WeatherTiger's 2025 real-time seasonal models, including for U.S. landfall risks.

weathertiger.substack.com

Cycloneye at Storm2K said this about this update:

“Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.”

————-
My take:
Seasons with 3+ H hits on the US are considered quite active for the US. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98

So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ US H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.

 

[jrips27]

 

[lexxnchloe]

Until the trof leaves the West ATL there is a near zero chance of a hurricane landfall anywhere in the US. Obviously the east coast is blocked and East coast trofs are quite unfavorable for the west carib or GOM.

 

[lexxnchloe]

WeatherTiger update is out: opinions?

Real-time 2025 Atlantic hurricane season projections

WeatherTiger's 2025 real-time seasonal models, including for U.S. landfall risks.

weathertiger.substack.com

Cycloneye at Storm2K said this about this update:

“Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.”

————-
My take:
Seasons with 3+ H hits on the US are considered quite active for the US. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98

So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ US H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.

Sounds too high to me

 

[lexxnchloe]

This 1010 low NE of the islands tracks all the way across. GFS doesnt show it

 

[GaWx]

This 1010 low NE of the islands tracks all the way across. GFS doesnt show it

View attachment 174538

Thanks, Lexx. I just looked at other 12Z ops and there’s actually the same general idea of a LL circ forming just off Africa within 6 days from these 12Z models: Euro, CMC, Icon, JMA, and UKMET. The GFS is about the only major op that has virtually nothing. Hmmmm.

12Z UKMET: TS forms at 132 just off of Africa and moves WSW:

EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.6N 17.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2025 132 17.6N 17.6W 1010 25
1200UTC 31.08.2025 144 17.3N 19.7W 1010 24
0000UTC 01.09.2025 156 17.2N 22.2W 1011 23
1200UTC 01.09.2025 168 16.7N 25.6W 1012 25

 

[Rain Cold]

This 1010 low NE of the islands tracks all the way across. GFS doesnt show it

View attachment 174538

In the penalty box for being too far north.

 

[jrips27]

Not sure I’ve seen an image of these runs for Katrina before

 

[GaWx]

0Z followup to all 12Z major ops but GFS showing a surface low forming just off of Africa this weekend:


0Z Icon like 12Z has a sfc low just off Africa Sat. It becomes a TD that day and then a TS by Sun as it moves mainly W just N of the CV Islands.

 

[Brent]

Not sure I’ve seen an image of these runs for Katrina before

Yeah I still was in Alabama then(where my hurricane obsession started) but I still remember when it shifted 200 miles west in one advisory. You don't see that from the NHC much if ever. I'm not even sure i remember such a drastic shift before or since

The unexpected southwest turn over South Florida changed history for sure

And how has it been 20 years?

 

[lexxnchloe]

EURO gets active, gfs nada

 

[Arcc]

Yeah I still was in Alabama then(where my hurricane obsession started) but I still remember when it shifted 200 miles west in one advisory. You don't see that from the NHC much if ever. I'm not even sure i remember such a drastic shift before or since

The unexpected southwest turn over South Florida changed history for sure

And how has it been 20 years?

I can't remember exactly, but sometime before this time period was when Spann made his epic post that "Katrina had absolutely no chance of impacting AL." Or something of the sort.

One of those moments one does doesn't forget.

 

[GaWx]

EURO gets active, gfs nada

View attachment 174546

Followup:

The Euro (0Z) has this again as a weak low just off Africa. It then eventually comes across to just N of the Leewards as a H moving NW though those details aren’t important so far out on an operational. See Lexx’s image that I quoted.

The EPS (0Z) again has a few TC members from this and they all are headed for a safe recurve from the US.

The Icon (6Z) has this again at 120 just off Africa.

The GFS (6Z) again doesn’t have this develop.

Edit: Unlike the 12Z, the 0Z UKMET doesn’t have this as a TC. The 0Z CMC still has this as a weak low.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Followup:

The Euro (0Z) has this again as a weak low just off Africa. It then eventually comes across to just N of the Leewards as a H moving NW though those details aren’t important so far out on an operational. See Lexx’s image that I quoted.

The EPS (0Z) again has a few TC members from this and they all are headed for a safe recurve from the US.

The Icon (6Z) has this again at 120 just off Africa.

The GFS (6Z) again doesn’t have this develop.

Edit: Unlike the 12Z, the 0Z UKMET doesn’t have this as a TC. The 0Z CMC still has this as a weak low.

GFS has the same trof bisecting the ATL. EURO is in fantasyland