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Pattern April Showers

The 0Z GFS is about 20 F colder at CAE than the 0Z Euro for Monday's high. Just a slight disagreement.
 
Per the 12Z GFS, Asheville gets rain with 37 & a dewpoint as cold as 36 & 850 mb temp down to a mere +1C on Monday 4/23. This is the coldest GFS run yet for Ash & it is getting very close to snow. I know of two times when they got measurable snow after 4/23: 4/24/2005 and 4/27-8/1928 (2.3"!). Also, Chattanooga, Atlanta, and others had a snowstorm 4/25/1910. So, Asheville or other areas nearby getting measurable snow as late as 4/23 wouldn't be unprecedented. So, this possibility is worth monitoring.
 
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Next weeks Sun-Tuesday event looks to be slow in movement, long duration, but doesn’t seem really heavy,as of today
 
Larry needs rain (as do many others in the coastal areas) and this hopefully will bring a smile to some ...

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh168-168.gif 610temp.new.gif 610prcp.new.gif
 
^Those maps look very nice. I'm surprised at how dead it is in here with the progged slow moving big, very wet, cold in some places SE storm looming for early next week. There have been no posts in any topic in 4 hours. You'd think all we had ahead was many days of dry uneventful wx ahead but it is the polar opposite. Phil, are we in The Twilight Zone? You'd at least think there'd be more weenie posts. Even banter is quiet with the last post being about wrestling some 9 hours ago!
Anyway, the 18Z GFS still has it.
 
GaWx said:
^Those maps look very nice. I'm surprised at how dead it is in here with the progged slow moving big, very wet, cold in some places SE storm looming for early next week. There have been no posts in any topic in 4 hours. You'd think all we had ahead was many days of dry uneventful wx ahead but it is the polar opposite. Phil, are we in The Twilight Zone? You'd at least think there'd be more weenie posts. Even banter is quiet with the last post being about wrestling some 9 hours ago!
Anyway, the 18Z GFS still has it.
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Larry,
Court is consuming me and I'm popping in now and then as time allows ... Please keep up the discussion, even solo, and I'll get back in (much to the chagrin of the rest, I fear) after next Tuesday ... :eek:
Best!
Phil
 
GaWx said:
^Those maps look very nice. I'm surprised at how dead it is in here with the progged slow moving big, very wet, cold in some places SE storm looming for early next week. There have been no posts in any topic in 4 hours. You'd think all we had ahead was many days of dry uneventful wx ahead but it is the polar opposite. Phil, are we in The Twilight Zone? You'd at least think there'd be more weenie posts. Even banter is quiet with the last post being about wrestling some 9 hours ago!
Anyway, the 18Z GFS still has it.
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My posts don’t count?
 
Models continue to suggest a wet start to next week for the SE. Certainly nothing to complain about there.


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I think the forecast high of 68 might be a little off today. It's already 70.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think the forecast high of 68 might be a little off today. It's already 70.
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It was supposed to cool down last night, but the problem is it didn't. It was around 70 at midnight and it's in the upper 50s now. The temps are being weird. And today's going to be 61 with a low in the upper 30s. Quite windy here though.
 
The 12Z GFS low track is further NW than was the case on most of or all of yesterday's GFS runs. Yes, that's the typical NW trend. The low track was as far south as KJAX at one point and the going well offshore but now it goes north of KSAV and doesn't even get offshore. As a result, it isn't nearly as cold a rain at Asheville and nearby areas and the heaviest rain is a little further north than was showing up yesterday. At Asheville the coldest it gets with the rain on the 6Z GFS is 43 vs 37 on yesterday's 12Z & the coldest 850 is +3 vs yesterday's about +0.5.
 
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No rain here but it’s 50 degrees at 1:39 pm in the afternoon. This is one spring I’ll never forget. I only wish the heat would stay away this long every spring. I guess I’d have to move 300 miles north at least if want That though.
 
It's strange how uniform the temps are today. It's 48 in Nashville, 47 in St. Louis, 47 in Minneapolis, and 50 in International Falls.
 
I am curious to see if temperatures tonight end up colder than forecast like Tuesday Night. Forecast for tonight is 37.
 
If this statistically verifies, Brent may get some warmth in the LR, but overall, most are not looking to face a torch going in to May (a far cry from last year) ... :D
... although wet is not indicated for most ... :(, except Brent ... :cool:
Just FWIW and now back to the old salt mine ... :confused:

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pcbjr said:
If this statistically verifies, Brent may get some warmth in the LR, but overall, most are not looking to face a torch going in to May (a far cry from last year) ... :D
... although wet is not indicated for most ... :(, except Brent ... :cool:
Just FWIW and now back to the old salt mine ... :confused:

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That's strange. You would think that with below normal precip, that would indicate above normal temps. And the areas that are forecast to be wet look to be above normal for temps. Less sun = warmer. More sun = cooler. Makes sense.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
That's strange. You would think that with below normal precip, that would indicate above normal temps. And the areas that are forecast to be wet look to be above normal for temps. Less sun = warmer. More sun = cooler. Makes sense.
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Thunderstorms? Heat --> rain ... ???
Works in this neck of the woods, like clockwork ... o_O
 
I wish I had invested in a few windmills I would be making bank this year.

Glad to see models upping rain totals with the systems next week. Looks like we might get an extended period of above normal temps post day 10 as a trough drops along the west coast and into the SW and forces a central/eastern us ridge

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30 this morning..... little tired of scraping ice off the windshield before I head into work
 
Based on the latest forecasts, KSAV has a good chance to still be cooler than Feb during April month to date (MTD) through 4/24 and maybe even MTD through 4/25! This more or less mirrors what much of the SE US has experienced. (KSAV has since records started in the 1870s not had a full April the same or colder than the preceding Feb though they have had 14 Aprils cooler than the record warmest Feb, Feb of 2018.)

Aside: KSAV's coldest this April (and actually since 3/23) was the 40 of 4/17 while the very next day (4/18) had a high of 88, its highest so far this April (and actually since 3/1)!
 
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