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Pattern April Showers

Even though I'm currently not expecting the entire April of 2018 to end up cooler than Feb of 2018 at KSAV, there's no doubt that it will only be slightly warmer at most. It could very easily end up only about one degree warmer! The record closest of April to Feb going back to 1874 is 5 warmer. So, this record will be obliterated. I assume this kind of stat will verify for many other SE locations. Maybe some cities will have a chance for an actual cooler April than Feb?

For your city, how does it look?
 
This sounds crazy but Charlotte received accumulating snow on this date in 1904 from a clipper system that timed a huge upper level trough over New England to perfection. Hard to believe that Charlotte has a later accumulating snow than Raleigh. Snow flurries got really close to Wilmington apparently and much of upstate SC even saw some token flakes. Insane... There are some bats**t crazy winter storms if you look back far enough in the historical record, certainly widens your perspective of what's legitimately feasible in a particular climate regime (even as the climate continues to warm)
April 20 1904 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This sounds crazy but Charlotte received accumulating snow on this date in 1904 from a clipper system that timed a huge upper level trough over New England to perfection. Hard to believe that Charlotte has a later accumulating snow than Raleigh. Snow flurries got really close to Wilmington apparently and much of upstate SC even saw some token flakes. Insane... There are some bats**t crazy winter storms if you look back far enough in the historical record, certainly widens your perspective of what's legitimately feasible in a particular climate regime (even as the climate continues to warm)
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As fascinating as that Charlotte accumulating snow was, even more fascinating is that Atlanta had accumulating snow on 4/25/1910 and not just a little bit: 1.5" of it! From what I can tell in looking back at surface maps/ground conditions throughout the US, this was very likely caused by a bowling ball type of upper low. What makes this even more fascinating? The latest ATL 0.7"+ snow on record (back to 1890) earlier than 4/25 was on 3/24, more than one month earlier!! Also, the 2nd latest ATL accumulating snow of any amount was two weeks earlier!
 
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GaWx said:
As fascinating as that Charlotte accumulating snow was, even more fascinating is that Atlanta had accumulating snow on 4/25/1910 and not just a little bit: 1.5" of it! From what I can tell in looking back at surface maps/ground conditions throughout the US, this was very likely caused by a bowling ball type of upper low. What makes this even more fascinating? The latest ATL 0.7"+ snow on record (back to 1890) earlier than 4/25 was on 3/24, more than one month earlier!! Also, the 2nd latest ATL accumulating snow of any amount was two weeks earlier!
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Are you telling me that snowstorm that dumped tons of snow in North AL and GA in early April 1987 somehow missed Atlanta ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Are you telling me that snowstorm that dumped tons of snow in North AL and GA in early April 1987 somehow missed Atlanta ?
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Best guess looking at wunderground is it was just token snow. I'll dig deeper but if I remember correctly, it was an upper level low (off what I've read) and upper level lows always make people sad along with very happy.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Are you telling me that snowstorm that dumped tons of snow in North AL and GA in early April 1987 somehow missed Atlanta ?
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I am telling you that for MEASURABLE snow downtown and airport. It stayed above freezing at the airport. So, they got only a trace of snow. Where it accumulated nearby, like in Cobb county (per my memory parts of Cobb got near 3"), it was barely cold enough to accumulate.
 
Shoot, looking at Chattanooga/NW Georgia too, I don't think they got blessed with too much snow from '87 either. It makes me want to say without having totals right in front of me that this was more of an Alabama and Appalachian Mountains snowstorm.

(in the deeper south at least, I think in North TN and other areas they did fine)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Shoot, looking at Chattanooga/NW Georgia too, I don't think they got blessed with too much snow from '87 either. It makes me want to say without having totals right in front of me that this was more of an Alabama and Appalachian Mountains snowstorm.

(in the deeper south at least, I think in North TN and other areas they did fine)
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There was like 9" in Fort Payne right on the GA/AL border so I would imagine the area just north of Rome got dumped on good. There was 6" in Birmingham and 9" in Fort Payne which leads me to believe totals increased the further northeast you went.
 
9CC3F10B-3A0D-4FBF-9985-34971200A266.png From the great JB
 
Made it down to 34.8 this morning....up to a nice 60 so far this hour. Such glorious April weather but I must admit I am ready for it to stay warm for a while
 
SoutheastRidge said:
There was like 9" in Fort Payne right on the GA/AL border so I would imagine the area just north of Rome got dumped on good. There was 6" in Birmingham and 9" in Fort Payne which leads me to believe totals increased the further northeast you went.
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When I looked at KCHA on wunderground, it had just .40" for the whole storm. So I dunno, I may just need the map.

Edit: Looking at the map I just saw, it has a gap in the Chattanooga valley. o_o It does look like my mom's old stomping grounds saw accumulating snow, but it would've been 4" at the max.
 
for that April '87 storm, CHA had 2.8 inches at the airport.. with reports of up to 6 inches on surrounding ridges.....

Now this... this is some sick chill for 2 days away from May:
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To me weather for the comfort factor doesn't get any better than upper 50s ,60 with low dps and a small breeze. This is the October weather we all crave to get here when experiencing the dog days of summer. So enjoy the last few of them while we have em.
Had a pretty good frost last night. Covered everything, grass espeacilly. April 20 is my avg date for last killing front. I've seen it hit 27 for lows here in the 2cnd week of May before.
 
Quite a contrast, given that it's basically coming from the same office ... (Yes, I realize the difference in multi-day and one day outlooks, but still ...) ... a lot remains up in the air ...

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif 610temp.new.gif
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Shoot, looking at Chattanooga/NW Georgia too, I don't think they got blessed with too much snow from '87 either. It makes me want to say without having totals right in front of me that this was more of an Alabama and Appalachian Mountains snowstorm.

(in the deeper south at least, I think in North TN and other areas they did fine)
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Actually, parts of N GA got a big dump with 8" at Blairsville, 7" at Ellijay, 5.5" at Rome, and 4.5" at Dallas. For these locations, these are alltime April record high snowfalls by a huge margin with nothing else even close though the records go back only about 80-90 years. Had they gone back to 4/1910, that may have been close in some cases.

My point is that this was also an extremely rare (for April) full-fledged north-central and NW GA snowstorm, too, not just TN,AL, etc.
 
The NC mountains got a ton of snow from that 1987 system. It completely skipped SC though, except fort a small part of Oconee county. Not a lot east of the mountains in NC either. As far as late freezes go, May 8 1989 featured a low of 31 at GSP and 28 in Asheville NC .
 
Seems like the gfs cmc are really bringing the warmth in early may while the EPS is really dragging its feet on the warmth

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Persistent, anomalous low-level westerlies and associated convergence near and just west of the International dateline has triggered yet another downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave in the central Pacific. This large-scale regime should persist for the foreseeable future as the MJO continues to avoid the Maritime Continent like the plague. We've taken another baby step in the direction of pushing us towards an El Nino either later this year or in 2019 (obviously still a long ways to go in any case).
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I was at SunTrust Park last night.. and froze my butt off.... forgot to bring a jacket.
 
Webb probably has this, but it seems that I recall a snowstorm hitting in the NC Mountains, perhaps over towards Asheville, in early May. Anyone remember that one?? This may have been around 30 years ago give or take. Looks like this type pattern could bring something like this.
 
Went with my daughter on field trip to New Orleans zoo, it felt great. Cool breez
 
Rain Cold said:
I want to put my lemon tree out on the porch. Guess I’m going to have to wait till June.
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Then we will have an early freeze and you will have to bring it back in, shortest growing season ever...

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5F23F975-58A2-4F16-A1AF-38EE6FA2E9F0.png Still looking good! There is a slight JHS rainshadow, but I jackpot!:D
 
7B00BCAD-E80A-4FF2-8C49-84AFD17EE014.png 007C8FDC-9BEB-4293-ACB6-66DD24FC7D14.png 339681D1-781F-4F89-B9EC-EBAE76575FC0.png Summer not looking too bad, if you believe TWC
 
April has by and large been cool so far for most.

This is a statistical probability and not a forecast of temps, or deviations in terms of degrees (i.e., could be just 1º). Further, this being a weekend there is no human input into the model forecast. Nevertheless, the following is a far different picture than last year, for sure, and a welcome sight for at least one who truly dreads rabid summer heat in the late spring ...

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... and the GFS is right on board during pre-truncation ... Full upload is too big, but this link will give you an idea ... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2018042112&fh=144


Partial upload ..
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This was a year ago ...

cd2001-579-2424-31-8cc-63ec-b87e-d801.110.14.17.32.prcp.png
 
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pcbjr said:
April has by and large been cool so far for most.

This is a statistical probability and not a forecast of temps, or deviations in terms of degrees (i.e., could be just 1º). Further, this being a weekend there is no human input into the model forecast. Nevertheless, the following is a far different picture than last year, for sure, and a welcome sight for at least one who truly dreads rabid summer heat in the late spring ...

View attachment 5109


View attachment 5110


... and the GFS is right on board during pre-truncation ... Full upload is too big, but this link will give you an idea ... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2018042112&fh=144


Partial upload ..
View attachment 5111


This was a year ago ...

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Mark my word. We will pay for this in July and August !
 
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