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Pattern Magnificent March

For free, this really is pretty good! https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/
The zoom is cool, especially on the hi-res models. The pain is you can't trust the snow map at all. You have to look at 925, 850, 700 temps and sort of guess what might be between. Like last night we wasted snow on sleet. Had to look at text soundings to see the warm nose was between 825 and 750. Took a while to figure it out but it is pretty cool. I am pretty sure someone here shared it before and that is where I picked it up but just in case ...
 
UK has bulk of precipitation south of I-40 and Euro has it north of I-40. UK probably to supressive, but hope that Euro is slightly to far north. Icon splits the middle.

9-km ECMWF USA Surface United States 24-h Precipitation 96.png UKMET 17 km United States Total Precipitation 108.png 13-km ICON United States Total Precipitation 102.png
 
While this is an ancient analog from a cooler time in the early 20th century, I had a lot of trouble finding potential analogs to the weekend threat in North Carolina. The large-scale pattern leading into this dynamic duo of back-to-back cold air damming events bears a lot of similarities to this weekend wrt the placement and intensity of the surface and mid-level upper level features (as mentioned earlier for example, you don't get 1040-1045 highs all that often in March in southern Ontario and Quebec and this event apparently had one). The snowfall distribution is also pretty consistent w/ what I think the probability distribution looks like for this event atm, with the most significant snow/ice most likely to occur from the US-64 corridor and points N into VA and the north-central mountains.

UKMET 96 hour forecast
GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

6z March 6, 1912 MSLP & 1000-500 mb thickness via NOAA 20CRv2c
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March 3-4 1912 NC Snowmap.png
March 5-6 1912 NC Snowmap.png
 
Along/north of US HWY 64 corridor is sitting in a legitimately decent position for this weekend, obviously even better as you close in on the VA border and mountains.
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Somebody close to the transition line is going to get a nice thump out of this
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metwannabe said:
Somebody close to the transition line is going to get a nice thump out of this
a4c7b3ea8636c604bc214fb78951e550.jpg


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Even without a whole lot of WAA aloft and a sheared/flat wave there's going to be such a strong along barrier PGF damming cold air against the east side of the apps gotta believe there could be some IP/ZR in this one even if we see a nice front end thump
 
Rain Cold said:
GFS looks better farther south than the last cycle. Of course, it is the gfs. :)
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Lol in all seriousness though as Eric has been pointing out how strong that high pressure is, I wouldn't be shocked if this actually trended a hair South.

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Webberweather53 said:
Even without a whole lot of WAA aloft and a sheared/flat wave there's going to be such a strong along barrier PGF damming cold air against the east side of the apps gotta believe there could be some IP/ZR in this one even if we see a nice front end thump
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Yuck and how many times has there ever been freezing rain this late in March? Wow

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metwannabe said:
Yuck and how many times has there ever been freezing rain this late in March? Wow

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Very rarely although in areas of NE GA the March 1983 event delivered some from my knowledge. I certainly pose the same question in that how many times have we seen a 1045 high over Quebec in late March? The fact I had to go all the way back to the early 20th century to find one just in March (of course in a colder climate much earlier in the month) says a lot about this setup
 
Webberweather53 said:
Very rarely although in areas of NE GA the March 1983 event delivered some from my knowledge. I certainly pose the same question in that how many times have we seen a 1045 high over Quebec in late March? The fact I had to go all the way back to the early 20th century to find one just in March (of course in a colder climate much earlier in the month) says a lot about this setup
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I love anomalies!

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metwannabe said:
Yuck and how many times has there ever been freezing rain this late in March? Wow

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I honestly won't mind the sleet and freezing rain. Really anything after the first week-10 days of March is a huge bonus, we've been spoiled beyond belief this month and getting snow this late in March is insane and at least gives us something to talk about.
 
metwannabe said:
Lol in all seriousness though as Eric has been pointing out how strong that high pressure is, I wouldn't be shocked if this actually trended a hair South.

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Even if the storm itself doesn’t trend South, the frozen precip and wedge could be a lot stronger than modeled, especially with its strength and maybe fresh snowpack could help also?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I honestly won't mind the sleet and freezing rain. Really anything after the first week-10 days of March is a huge bonus, we've been spoiled beyond belief this month and getting snow this late in March is insane and at least gives us something to talk about.
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Webb,
You always educate, so here is a very basic question - what the hell is this four letter word thrown about called "snow"? It does sound tantalizing, whatever it is ... :confused:
LOL ...
Best!
Phil
 
Tarheel1 said:
Even if the storm itself doesn’t trend South, the frozen precip and wedge could be a lot stronger than modeled, especially with its strength and maybe fresh snowpack could help also?
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the Euro probability map gave us a 2% chance of 1” 300+ hours out..so there’s that :(

I’ve never seen Raleigh get so many snow chances while northern Greenville country was completely left out. Not even a prayer. I can’t figure it out
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
the Euro probability map gave us a 2% chance of 1” 300+ hours out..so there’s that :(

I’ve never seen Raleigh get so many snow chances while northern Greenville country was completely left out. Not even a prayer. I can’t figure it out
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I’m seriously thinking about moving to Roxboro! Got family already there! Tired of snow pics all winter!
 
metwannabe said:
And I'll just echo what you've been saying, of late the ICON has been too warm with surface temps so I like this...
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Hopefully that means the frozen stuff will be further south. I know the earlier run had me getting 6 inches of snow. That one looked looked like rain.
 
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Here's my preliminary snow/sleet accumulation map for this event today, the Triangle did good for once w/ a light-moderate dusting pretty widespread from about Raleigh and points NW into Durham. There was about 0.1" here on NC State's campus. Upon further inspection and word of mouth from a few in the Fayetteville area it snowed on the west side of town and Fort Bragg
March 20-21 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
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