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Pattern Magnificent March

March 2013 was never able to couple a favorable pac with a west based NAO. The EPO was negative when the NAO was more east based but then flipped positive when the west based NAO established. Hopefully we can get a favorable -EPO/-NAO combo during the first half of March.

March 2006 was similar, predominantly +EPO during first half.

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2 record breaking blocking highs in the next 5-6 days in the northern hemisphere. A 595dm ridge off the SE US is very impressive for the middle of summer much less February. The potentially record-breaking Scandinavian block will retrograde towards Greenland and will remain very formidable and may remain awfully close to record territory on its own. Like I said yesterday, this is not going to be your run of the mill 1 ish sigma blocking high, the CPC's GEFS NAO forecast doesn't do this upcoming event justice.
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Webberweather53 said:
I don't think you're all that crazy if you're along or north of I-40 and/or in the mountains that you could see a storm out of this pattern. The climo in areas like Raleigh, Greensboro/Winston-Salem, the VA border counties, western piedmont and foothills/mountains is good enough to legitimately support a storm through at least mid-March if the right pattern comes along. Elsewhere especially closer to the I-20 corridor (Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia, etc) I wouldn't hold my breath.
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Don’t worry. I’m not holding my breath for anyone to score in the SE the rest of winter. Just because you get a -NAO doesn’t mean it will produce ANY winter precipitation for ANYONE in the SE.


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whatalife said:
Don’t worry. I’m not holding my breath for anyone to score in the SE the rest of winter. Just because you get a -NAO doesn’t mean it will produce ANY winter precipitation for ANYONE in the SE.


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If this was a plain old -NAO I wouldn’t be remotely excited about March. The fact that it’s west based changes everything for me. But - I wouldn’t be too thrilled if I was anywhere outside the upper SE or of course, Raleigh...need a lot for people outside of normal climo areas to cash in at March but if a pattern produces it would need a block, which we are certainly getting.



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whatalife said:
Don’t worry. I’m not holding my breath for anyone to score in the SE the rest of winter. Just because you get a -NAO doesn’t mean it will produce ANY winter precipitation for ANYONE in the SE.


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+1000 likes. With the way our pattern is right now, I can't see any deep cold doing anything. If anything, I think we'll also dry out a bit at the pattern change. All this rain can't lead to weeks more of excessive precip. I'll welcome the drier and cooler air bringing us back to seasonal. As for the -NAO, is that all we have going for us? How many times have we gone all in on one feature and busted...
 
Jon said:
If this was a plain old -NAO I wouldn’t be remotely excited about March. The fact that it’s west based changes everything for me. But - I wouldn’t be too thrilled if I was anywhere outside the upper SE or of course, Raleigh...need a lot for people outside of normal climo areas to cash in at March but if a pattern produces it would need a block, which we are certainly getting.



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With these late season cold snaps that we get each year, I-40 north usually makes out just fine. I think it was 2014 that the triad got about 2-3 light winter events IIRC in March. Clt of course got zippo but cold annoying rain. If I was in winston salem and/or the mountains of the Carolinas, I'd think it's still game on. Late, late in the 4th quarter but still a chance.
 
Jon said:
If this was a plain old -NAO I wouldn’t be remotely excited about March. The fact that it’s west based changes everything for me. But - I wouldn’t be too thrilled if I was anywhere outside the upper SE or of course, Raleigh...need a lot for people outside of normal climo areas to cash in at March but if a pattern produces it would need a block, which we are certainly getting.



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Agreed, it's definitely a big reach and quite frankly very inaccurate to say that nobody in the southeast can score out of this pattern, the climatology of the I-40 corridor from RDU to GSO and Nashville is comprable or better than those in Atlanta, Birmingham, & Columbia along the I-20 in the dead of winter. It's not great yes but we're still very much in the mix til at least mid March.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Agreed, it's definitely a big reach to say nobody in the southeast can score out of this pattern, the climatology of the I-40 corridor from RDU to GSO and Nashville is comprable or better than those in Atlanta, Birmingham, & Columbia along the I-20 in the dead of winter. It's not great yes but we're still very much in the mix til at least mid March
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I don't at all disagree with this. I just hope nobody "expects" any wintry precip. of significance. Nobody is forecasting significant wintry precip. A strong -NAO is being forecasted and is generating excitement along with the near certainty of much cooler wx than we've had in Feb. That's the extent of what can be forecasted/promised.

Edit: That being said, that doesn't at all mean sig wintry precip cant happen, especially in NC/TN. Even BHM-ATL-CUB getting measurable wintry in March is not all that rare even though the odds are pretty low for any one March.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
I don't think you're all that crazy if you're along or north of I-40 and/or in the mountains that you could see a storm out of this pattern. The climo in areas like Raleigh, Greensboro/Winston-Salem, the VA border counties, western piedmont and foothills/mountains is good enough to legitimately support a storm through at least mid-March if the right pattern comes along. Elsewhere especially closer to the I-20 corridor (Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia, etc) I wouldn't hold my breath.
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We have had legitimate winter weather in March 2 out of last 4 years up this way. It does happen but of course the more north you go the better the odds.
 
whatalife said:
Don’t worry. I’m not holding my breath for anyone to score in the SE the rest of winter. Just because you get a -NAO doesn’t mean it will produce ANY winter precipitation for ANYONE in the SE.


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I am not saying that it can’t happen or that it won’t happen. I had 4.5” of snow in my backyard on November 1st 2014. I think March overall is a better month to score winter weather then in November so there’s that.


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GaWx said:
I don't at all disagree with this. I just hope nobody "expects" any wintry precip. of significance. Nobody is forecasting significant wintry precip. A strong -NAO is being forecasted and is generating excitement along with the near certainty of much cooler wx than we've had in Feb. That's the extent of what can be forecasted/promised.

Edit: That being said, that doesn't at all mean sig wintry precip cant happen, especially in NC/TN. Even BHM-ATL-CUB getting measurable wintry in March is not all that rare even though the odds are pretty low for any one March.
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If you expect wintry weather in the south at any point of the winter you are wishing.
 
Last 3” or greater March snow for Raleigh was in 2009. Prior to that I guess it might have been 1983. It will be a challenge for Raleigh. But, still nice to see a potential -NAO develop.
 
Euro still doesn't show anything too exciting before February 30th.
 
Folks will no doubt be generally pleased with the colder 12Z EPS changes vs the 0Z EPS during the first week of March in the SE US.
 
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Jon said:
I hear yeah. The problem with trusting literal 2mT’s that far out is that it’s highly unreliable. That’s as good as trusting a winter storm verbatim in the late 300hr+ outputs. The deeper the anomalies this far out the stronger the signal, technically, because there’s so much spread in ensemble members. The anomalies will only get deeper and more extreme as we get closer, so seeing near freezing now is actually a good thing. Ensembles aren’t meant to be taken verbatim either, especially at mesoscale levels. I don’t even look at mesoscale data this far out. If you trend the 2mT’s on the same time frame in the GEFS for the next few runs I guarantee it will get colder. Pattern recognition first, then worry about the small stuff.
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Great post and info as always Jon. Most snows we get in March aren’t from long lasting cold shots anyways so temps not being below freezing in the long range aren’t to concerning as you pointed out. Most of the snows I can remember in March came after a few days in the 60s or 70s. That’s usually followed by a cold front that brings us just below or near freezing temps with moisture that dumps heavy wet snow on us. After that it’s cold for a day or two at most and then it’s back to warmer March weather.
 
SnowNiner said:
With these late season cold snaps that we get each year, I-40 north usually makes out just fine. I think it was 2014 that the triad got about 2-3 light winter events IIRC in March. Clt of course got zippo but cold annoying rain. If I was in winston salem and/or the mountains of the Carolinas, I'd think it's still game on. Late, late in the 4th quarter but still a chance.
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I agree. Just last March Nashville got 1.5 inches of snow while the temp was 3.5 degrees above normal for the month. Where I live 35-40 minuets north of Nashville I rarely go more then 3 years without seeing an accumulating snow in March. Last one I got was in 2015 and it was a little over 4 inches. Of course it was gone 2 days later but that’s how it usually goes in March.
 
image.png Man that block is looking healthy in the LR. This is how we score in March. These ingredients are necessary and it looks like they will be there. I would expect to see a marginal storm pop up here in the next couple days. Should be something to at least track. Or not. Who knows
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don't think you're all that crazy if you're along or north of I-40 and/or in the mountains that you could see a storm out of this pattern. The climo in areas like Raleigh, Greensboro/Winston-Salem, the VA border counties, western piedmont and foothills/mountains is good enough to legitimately support a storm through at least mid-March if the right pattern comes along. Elsewhere especially closer to the I-20 corridor (Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia, etc) I wouldn't hold my breath.
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We never hold our breathe for Winter weather in Columbia. Don't worry.
 
Rain Cold said:
It'll be February 30th before it snows big in March in Raleigh again!
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RC/CR,
Your sense of humor is precious!
Thanks for keeping a stiff upper lip; you always provide resolve when it's not deserved.
Best!
Phil

PS ... We'll all get our day, just not on February 30th ... unless the atomic clock is off ... :confused:
 
BPATL said:
I'm sorry, long day, was not trying to throw attitude. I think we all feel this way about Fraud Failuary...
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Only naming it a cold and good name made it disappointing. Should've listened to Webber and the others beforehand. March is doomed in these terms to fail having a positive name. Abomination April FTW.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Only naming it a cold and good name made it disappointing. Should've listened to Webber and the others beforehand. March is doomed in these terms to fail having a positive name. Abomination April FTW.
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Here's some other apropos choices ... :oops:

Apocalyptic April

Awful April

April Arson

Atrophic April

Apoplectic April

Appalling April

April Apprehension
 
BPATL said:
I'm sorry, long day, was not trying to throw attitude. I think we all feel this way about Fraud Failuary...
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Ha it’s all good man. I’m just playing around not adding any value whatsoever. :)
 
ForsythSnow said:
Only naming it a cold and good name made it disappointing. Should've listened to Webber and the others beforehand. March is doomed in these terms to fail having a positive name. Abomination April FTW.
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In July, might as well call it "JuLightning 2018"
 
FF56EBD8-447B-4DB1-B1D1-9393F5CFFCA5.png Time to shut this thread down! It’s over now!:(
 
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