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Wintry 2/3-2/4 Mixed Bag NC, SC, NE GA

packfan98 said:
Anyone have Euro access? I'm curious if it trended a tick colder like the other modeling so far today?
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It appears so. 12Z on top, 0Z bottom.
ecmwf_t2m_se_54.png
ecmwf_t2m_se_66.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
It appears so. 12Z on top, 0Z bottom.
ecmwf_t2m_se_54.png
ecmwf_t2m_se_66.png
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Thanks! That's a 1-3 degree drop around the edges. I believe the Euro usually runs a little warm at the surface in these types of setups too. Still quite a few model cycles left. I wonder if they will slowly cool until go time???
 
Rosie said:
Do not need any trees downor power out.
Hope you are feeling better
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Thanks ... just don't let anyone tell you that this year's flu shot is worth a hoot ... :(
Some of the meanest severe I've seen up your way was near Neel Gap ... holy cow can a SW wind whip in there ...
Back to bed; up for an hour and am afraid to say more lest it be garbage ...
 
pcbjr said:
Thanks ... just don't let anyone tell you that this year's flu shot is worth a hoot ... :(
Some of the meanest severe I've seen up your way was near Neel Gap ... holy cow can a SW wind whip in there ...
Back to bed; up for an hour and am afraid to say more lest it be garbage ...
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Did not get shot, caught some bug but not flu.
 
Is it too much to ask to hear a handful of pingers to close winter out with a bang? Beats rain! Short range modes still keying in on onset frozen precip for the favored CAD region down into the upstate
 
For Cen NC folks I noticed on the 18z 3k NAM it's sneaking in some moisture off the Atlantic to get some patchy light zr a little sooner and a smidge further east. Nothing significant but something to monitor

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For those wondering, CAE is not part of this. Here is a snippet from KCAE, infact:


"Have
indicated all rain in the current forecast given latest
guidance. Models have continued to trend warmer with lows
Saturday night ranging from the low 30s along and north of I-20
to the upper 30s in the southern CSRA."
 
Shawn said:
For those wondering, CAE is not part of this. Here is a snippet from KCAE, infact:


"Have
indicated all rain in the current forecast given latest
guidance. Models have continued to trend warmer with lows
Saturday night ranging from the low 30s along and north of I-20
to the upper 30s in the southern CSRA."
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We weren't man. We don't get appreciable winter weather anymore. Can't even get ice anymore. Which no one really wants in the first place.
 
SCweather said:
We weren't man. We don't get appreciable winter weather anymore. Can't even get ice anymore. Which no one really wants in the first place.
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Yep and now modeling is getting warmer and less Gulf tracks to support anything for us. Most of the systems are late bloomers, crap half-phasers, and inland runners through 384 hours of the GFS. Not even a fantasy storm!
 
Could be trouble for the piedmont into western NC and SC. Looks like Charlotte gets the worst of it.

zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
Shawn said:
Yep and now modeling is getting warmer and less Gulf tracks to support anything for us. Most of the systems are late bloomers, crap half-phasers, and inland runners through 384 hours of the GFS. Not even a fantasy storm!
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Nope, pretty sad. Very sad.
 
metwannabe said:
For Cen NC folks I noticed on the 18z 3k NAM it's sneaking in some moisture off the Atlantic to get some patchy light zr a little sooner and a smidge further east. Nothing significant but something to monitor

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I want to see how the wedge erodes Sunday. 3k nam at one point has rdu at 50 gso at 39. Big bust potential around here. If we get drizzle and rain Sunday morning I have a hard time seeing 50 at rdu

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RGEM just said-" things just got real"
 
Shawn said:
Yep and now modeling is getting warmer and less Gulf tracks to support anything for us. Most of the systems are late bloomers, crap half-phasers, and inland runners through 384 hours of the GFS. Not even a fantasy storm!
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It doesn't do any good to have 300+ hour GFS snowstorms, because they NEVER materialize! So just torch runs and apps rubbers, are great, because they give no false hope!
 
The 3km NAM wants to develop an embedded squall line along the edge of the very sharp CAD boundary late on Sunday. Can't entirely rule out a threat for severe weather in this case especially those along and just east of the boundary. There will be an area of significantly enhanced storm relative helicity and baroclinicity wherever the SE edge of the CAD dome sets up
hires_ref_raleigh_52.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 3km NAM wants to develop an embedded squall line along the edge of the very sharp CAD boundary late on Sunday. Can't entirely rule out a threat for severe weather in this case especially those along and just east of the boundary. There will be an area of significantly enhanced storm relative helicity and baroclinicity wherever the SE edge of the CAD dome sets up
View attachment 3739
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Per the NAM, there isn't any CAPE, no updraft helicity, and no sign of severe WX. The line only lasts a couple hours outside the temp change and quickly falls apart as well. It may look severe to you, but I see nothing outside a strong wind gust.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Per the NAM, there isn't any CAPE, no updraft helicity, and no sign of severe WX. The line only lasts a couple hours outside the temp change and quickly falls apart as well. It may look severe to you, but I see nothing outside a strong wind gust.
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The wind gusts along the line aren't really all that far off from severe limits, it wouldn't take much given the extreme baroclinicity along the edge of the CAD dome and the winds aloft if the convection is intense enough. I've seen many situations like this occasionally produce embedded, rain-wrapped and brief spin up tornadoes, especially near the Triad which is why there's a secondary max in tornado density near Winston-Salem and near/just west of Charlotte as Brandon Vincent of NWS RAH discussed several years ago during the storm spotter training session on campus at NCSU. Many of those tornadoes in the central-western piedmont formed along CAD boundaries like this one.
hires_gust_mph_raleigh_51.png

small.allen.nc.tornado.density.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Per the NAM, there isn't any CAPE, no updraft helicity, and no sign of severe WX. The line only lasts a couple hours outside the temp change and quickly falls apart as well. It may look severe to you, but I see nothing outside a strong wind gust.
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The CAPE is virtually 0 as you'd expect in a case like this but the storms formed anyway and the storm relative helicities are supportive of rotating, embedded mesocyclones, you only need about 100-150 0-1km SRH to produce tornadoes, not saying that's going to happen here obviously but it's a very legitimate possibility. The CAD dome acts as a pseudo topographic surface as well as a region of localized relative vorticity and baroclinicity, as the elevated storms pass the boundary of the CAD dome, they'll undergo a little stretching as the dome slopes downwards towards the ground underneath them which aids in the generation of vorticity...

hires_helicity0_raleigh_51.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The wind gusts along the line aren't really all that far off from severe limits, it wouldn't take much given the extreme baroclinicity along the edge of the CAD dome and the winds aloft if the convection is intense enough. I've seen many situations like this occasionally produce embedded, rain-wrapped and brief spin up tornadoes, especially near the Triad which is why there's a secondary max in tornado density near Winston-Salem and near/just west of Charlotte as Brandon Vincent of NWS RAH discussed several years ago during the storm spotter training session on campus at NCSU. Many of those tornadoes in the central-western piedmont formed along CAD boundaries like this one.
View attachment 3740

View attachment 3741
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Absolutely, don't recall dates/specifics but I've seen many times severe right along the CAD and a few tornadoes in those situations, usually nothing widespread but it certainly has happened a number of times. Models usually miss it too if I recall correctly. The wedge can be as fickle for NWP as ull to be honest
 
metwannabe said:
Absolutely, don't recall dates/specifics but I've seen many times severe right along the CAD and a few tornadoes in those situations, usually nothing widespread but it certainly has happened a number of times. Models usually miss it too if I recall correctly. The wedge can be as fickle for NWP as ull to be honest
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Yeah I completely agree, many cases there's nothing but I've seen instances where a few mesocyclones pop up embedded within the squall line right along the edge of the CAD boundary but once they get far removed from this source of relative vorticity they often weaken quite rapidly and dissipate. It's just another hazard we might have to lookout for in addition to some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain near the onset.
 
Latest 12K NAM, still looking icy for NE GA and W Carolinas for a few hours Sunday
 
this would be the cruel punchline for this winter in CHA if the front end thump over-performs and gives us an inch or two of snow only to be washed away hours later by the warm nose moving in with rain.
 
Winter Weather Advisory implemented for the Triad. Freezing Rain expected from 6 to 9AM Sunday morning before warming to plain rain. Really worried it will go longer than that because these CAD events almost always do. Right now just a light glaze is anticipated but I am not so sure
 
MichaelJ said:
Winter Weather Advisory implemented for the Triad. Freezing Rain expected from 6 to 9AM Sunday morning before warming to plain rain. Really worried it will go longer than that because these CAD events almost always do. Right now just a light glaze is anticipated but I am not so sure
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Going to be a real battle from the triad to the foot of the apps to get above freezing tomorrow. Models are starting really hit on the idea of the in situ wedge locking in. You can see the wind barbs on the 3k nam flipping from E to north and a narrow ridge axis in that area. I think the area from yadkinville to Morganton might over perform possibly even east of there. But the lack of a consistent dry feed should allow of latent heat release from the freezing rain to push these areas to 32 33 by mid afternoon.

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SD said:
Going to be a real battle from the triad to the foot of the apps to get above freezing tomorrow. Models are starting really hit on the idea of the in situ wedge locking in. You can see the wind barbs on the 3k nam flipping from E to north and a narrow ridge axis in that area. I think the area from yadkinville to Morganton might over perform possibly even east of there. But the lack of a consistent dry feed should allow of latent heat release from the freezing rain to push these areas to 32 33 by mid afternoon.

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Yeah I agree, seen this so many times here, forecast calls for a changeover much quicker than it turns out almost every time. It is kind of the reverse warm nose which happens during most snows and hardly ever is forecast
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This would be pretty much worst case scenario. Hopefully, it's wrong.View attachment 3757
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I honestly don't get the whole Forsyth county ice hole, but it's showing up a lot, so it's going to verify. However, if I wake up to freezing rain and icing, or I get sleet instead, it's a bust. It would also be a bust if it's way colder or way warmer tonight.
 
whamby said:
this would be the cruel punchline for this winter in CHA if the front end thump over-performs and gives us an inch or two of snow only to be washed away hours later by the warm nose moving in with rain.
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Ugh those are the worst. I believe it was in 2010 where I got 2.5 inches of snow one evening that then switched to rain and washed it all away. If I remember correctly it switched back to snow and dumped 2 more inches at the end. It was one of the wackier storms I can recall. I just remember thinking if the whole system had stayed snow I would have had the rare 6 plus inch accumulating snow.
 
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