Tropical Hurricane Isaias

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The mid-level water vapor clearly shows the decapitation strike racing toward the storm out of Texas. Its window is closing rapidly.

COD NEXLAB: Satellite and Radar

Check out COD Meteorology's Satellite and Radar Data

weather.cod.edu

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Arcc]

Thats close to a MH.

 

[Belle Lechat]

2 in now and one on deck.

AFXXX 1209A CYCLONE is scheduled to depart in 1 hour and 41 minutes

 

[Belle Lechat]

Dvorak loop shows maturing, closing in on Louisiana, northeast trajectory to recently due north. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/movies/odthtml5_09L.html

 

[accu35]

Dvorak loop shows maturing, closing in on Louisiana, northeast trajectory to recently due north. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/movies/odthtml5_09L.html

Hurricane models really starts ramping it up in a few hours from now.

 

[SnowmasterATL]

Hurricane models really starts ramping it up in a few hours from now.

Strengthening wise or movement

 

[accu35]

Strengthening wise or movement

Strengthening

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Snowman63]

It’s early but I would say the ai models won out on this with the eastern landfall and intensity.

I agree and correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Google DeepMind's WeatherNext 3 led the way early on. The physic-based models and even the Euro AI took awhile before jumping on that east track.

 

[Belle Lechat]

Upper rope thickening, lower building to along the west coast of Central America

 

[Belle Lechat]

967.8 mb

 

[accu35]

Local news is saying the storm has been on a NNE movement for a couple hours and is north of the forecast track

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

Local news is saying the storm has been on a NNE movement for a couple hours and is north of the forecast track

The two forecast points are 9 hours apart. If my time zone, CDT, then now the center would be forecast to be 4/9 of the way after the 10:00PM point.

Current recon showing center around 25.9 N and 88.4 W, and it appears the center of Isaias is at the 10:00PM position, or the center of the white ball, 4 hours south, not north of schedule.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

Looking at the updating water vapor image at the top of the page, there's a bump east.

 

[Belle Lechat]

According to the Navy's map below, with the forecast points 12 hours apart, and the eye position in the most recent recon image taken from a satellite picture taken at 7:15z, or a little past halfway between the two forecast points, Isaias would be on schedule and a little west of the center forecast line.

NRL Tropical Cyclone Web - U.S. Naval Research Laboratory

science.nrlmry.navy.mil

So me using two different maps with different forecast points written on them and getting two different results, I'm less surprised at the media getting another different result.

 

[Belle Lechat]

108 kt at 757 mb

 

[Belle Lechat]

965.8 mb extrapolated Surface

 

[Belle Lechat]

A couple of buoys with 18.7 ft wave height.

NDBC - Observations - Radial Search

www.ndbc.noaa.gov

 

[Belle Lechat]

114 kt flight level

073630 2600N 08752W 7510 02294 9775 +142 +139 185110 112 /// /// 03
073700 2600N 08754W 7496 02280 9743 +149 +146 188107 114 /// /// 03

114 kt x .9 = 102.6 kt, 118 mph surface wind extrapolated

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

A line of lightning down to Costa Rica

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

080830 2601N 08802W 7516 02211 9643 +205 +132 249032 042 /// /// 03

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[DupontWx]

080830 2601N 08802W 7516 02211 9643 +205 +132 249032 042 /// /// 03

so maybe a major? 964.3 mb as broadly consistent with a strong Category 2 / borderline Category 3 intensity, roughly 100–115 mph

 

[Belle Lechat]

so maybe a major? 964.3 mb as broadly consistent with a strong Category 2 / borderline Category 3 intensity, roughly 100–115 mph

Agree, but high end Category 2 for now.

...ISAIAS STRENGTHENING... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION AS THE WEATHER WILL GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY TODAY....

4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 Location: 26.4°N 88.0°W Moving: NNE at 15 mph Min pressure: 963 mb Max sustained: 110 mph

 

[Belle Lechat]

M on the map, and S, not D, north of Tuscaloosa.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

120 kt = 138 mph

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[jrips27]

View attachment 198660

Best it’s looked in my opinion