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Pattern June Gloom

my backyard davis fluctuates but i would say that even on the most turbulent days temps remain in a tight 3-5 degree window. i know nws has been out there and has said "everything is calibrated fine" but... something isn't adding up. rdu has racked up a streak of these high temp outperformances that are statistically highly unlilkely
Its outright impossible. The question is why do they allow this to continue?

Maybe instead of checking the calibration, they put up a second sensor as verification testing. KATL's does the same thing after so many years ago. Its direct sunlight, plus the thing is 75 feet up between two runways.
 
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Sorry for the crude drawing, my laptop has a touchscreen and best i can do. CAPE levels are exceeding 1000+ j/kg and will expect to rise within next hour.
 
DCAPE is also EXTREMELY high as well, may upgrade to MRGL in these spots too in 1630z update.
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But there's no shear. That's what make storms so strong. Expect that to change by lunchtime.
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The extremely dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries.

OTOH, the ATL area, where it has been raining a good bit more, isn’t favored to threaten record highs. Their forecasts have mainly lower 90s. But ATL dewpoints may thus be a bit higher meaning heat indices being closer together. This all areas will be miserable.
 
The extremely dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries.

OTOH, the ATL area, where it has been raining a good bit more, isn’t favored to threaten record highs. Their forecasts have mainly lower 90s. But ATL dewpoints may thus be a bit higher meaning heat indices being closer together. This all areas will be miserable.
Just typical summer weather in Atlanta. But next week, Atlanta is forecast to only be 78 on Tuesday !
 
A WRAL Weather Alert Day is being issued for Thursday due to high heat and an isolated evening storm threat.

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Heat advisories are possible Thursday and Friday. Each day has a chance of evening storms, a couple of which could be strong.

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  • Wednesday:Hot with late day storms. Highs in the low 90s.
  • Thursday:Weather Alert Day issued due to high heat and isolated evening storm threat. Highs in the upper 90s.
  • Friday:Partly cloudy and still very hot with a small chance for some afternoon and evening storms. Highs in the upper 90s-100.

Nearing record heat at times late this week​

High heat is going to be the main story later in the week. Thursday and Friday's temperatures will be near-record levels. That's saying something in June!
 
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areas in blue will have highest risk of severe weather, as stated in the areas in green below.
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actually its moving east, not southeast.
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Popups popping up S Perimeter ATL per my view. I’m stopped
 
2 weeks without any rain IMBY....the 40% this afternoon is now a 20% overnight but radar says naw.
I don't like what the AI models are showing. Below is the total two-week QPF from the 6z GFS AI. The 6z euro AI is similar but has the minimum shifted NE some. I have a feeling the minimum will just expand more to cover all the (worse) drought areas. This has been the rule for many months now.

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RAH's issued heat advisories for S and E counties in CWA including the Triangle today. Looks like we might avoid excessive heat warnings tomorrow even with slightly higher temps since heat index will be about the same as today.
 
https://www.facebook.com/NWSRaleigh...-warm-and-dry-across-centra/1306449434997650/

Raleigh has not only shattered the record for the driest meteorological Spring on record but this is also the driest start to a year in recorded history. Conditions are not going to experience any dramatic changes any time soon even with the increased chances for showers and thunderstorms during the next few days. At best the models are telling us that rainfall totals for the next seven days might reach normal levels for this time of year. A tropical system affecting the area would be heaven sent but as luck would have it, we are in a El Nino pattern which reduces the chances of that happening.
 
Storm chances today and tomorrow are better than 0 but pretty medicore

Slight cap today but can be quickly busted by any lift
Flow has some weak disturbances in it but nothing noteworthy
Dews may try to Mix tomorrow as the flow veers a little more W/NW behind the first trough today

Saturday is probably ripe along and E of 95 per the usual
 
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I don't like what the AI models are showing. Below is the total two-week QPF from the 6z GFS AI. The 6z euro AI is similar but has the minimum shifted NE some. I have a feeling the minimum will just expand more to cover all the (worse) drought areas. This has been the rule for many months now.

View attachment 196320
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As of noon, RDU (and Rocky Mt, NC also) was at 94F, not surprisingly THE hottest in the entire SE. I’m including all SE states including FL. With 94 at noon, RDU has a good shot at 101-2 despite the NWS forecast having ā€œonlyā€ upper 90s for the Raleigh area. This, of course, is assuming that clouds and convection don’t start to increase there or even in the general vicinity:

ā€œTODAY MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102.ā€
 
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Also, first cell of day is now in asheboro, moving sw.
 
The Triangle, Triad, and neighboring S VA was the only area in the entire SE to notably worsen as the rest of the SE either was unchanged or improved vs last week’s map.
 
The semi-fake news RDU sensor was 97 at 1PM and was by 2F the hottest in the entire SE among official reporting stations with Rocky Mount, NC, and Brunswick, GA, next at 95!
 
As of noon, RDU (and Rocky Mt, NC also) was at 94F, not surprisingly THE hottest in the entire SE. I’m including all SE states including FL. With 94 at noon, RDU has a good shot at 101-2 despite the NWS forecast having ā€œonlyā€ upper 90s for the Raleigh area. This, of course, is assuming that clouds and convection don’t start to increase there or even in the general vicinity:

ā€œTODAY MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102.ā€
92 here at KNCERWIN28
 
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EDIT: SHATTERED THE RECORD OF 98.6 SET ON JUNE 26 2024!
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