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Pattern June Gloom

RBR71 said:
According to my research, AI lol, coldest recorded June low for RR is 48. Broke that by 2° this morning
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Judging by you typing “AI lol”, it seems like you’re taking AI with a grain here, which is smart because AI is way off for Roxboro’s record cold June low for some reason. The only way 48 can be considered their monthly low is if AI goes back only to 2009. They had 38 in 2006 per this source:


Regardless, your 44 is quite impressive considering you came within 6 of the monthly low, 44 is ~16 BN for a low for the date, and 44 is the coldest June low since after 2006.
 
This morning was a refreshing low of 60 at KSAV and 64 at KSVN. Dewpoints are in the very nice/rare for June mid 40s. So, needless to say, I intend to walk at one of the parks this evening as I did yesterday.
 
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I could be mistaken but I do believe we are likely to be hottest in the early part of a nino summer versus the 2nd half, feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

It still seems like we morph into a western US ridge and north atlantic/bermuda ridge with a weakness in the middle. If you want to go full on rain/humidity/high pwat this is the way
 
SD said:
I could be mistaken but I do believe we are likely to be hottest in the early part of a nino summer versus the 2nd half, feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

It still seems like we morph into a western US ridge and north atlantic/bermuda ridge with a weakness in the middle. If you want to go full on rain/humidity/high pwat this is the way
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Per the following composite of summer months preceding high end moderate or stronger Nino since 1950 fwiw, you have the right idea due to the avg of Augusts cooling considerably on avg in the E US vs June/July. July on average has actually been the warmest in a large portion of the E coast states:

June
IMG_0596.png

July:
IMG_0597.png

August:
IMG_0598.png

Then Sep on avg warmed up:
IMG_0599.png

Then the avg of Oct cooled down:
IMG_0600.png

Then the avg warmed back up for Nov/Dec:
IMG_0601.pngIMG_0602.png

Then Jan/Feb on avg have been chilly in the SE:




IMG_0604.pngIMG_0605.png
 
GaWx said:
Judging by you typing “AI lol”, it seems like you’re taking AI with a grain here, which is smart because AI is way off for Roxboro’s record cold June low for some reason. The only way 48 can be considered their monthly low is if AI goes back only to 2009. They had 38 in 2006 per this source:


Regardless, your 44 is quite impressive considering you came within 6 of the monthly low, 44 is ~16 BN for a low for the date, and 44 is the coldest June low since after 2006.
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I'm not Roxboro but for Roanoke Rapids I see they hit 42 back in 2006
 
54.9 this morning.

Currently 75.6 at home but mid 80s up here in Richmond.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
First week/half of June last year was very nice as well, some cool mornings and low humidity but then the heat cranked for 6-7 weeks nonstop. Then August was pretty pleasant for August .. remember the highs in the 60s in early Aug?
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we had a ridiculous 90s streak at GSP, something like 35 in a row. + our first 100 in years. then a week of august wedge, lol
 
Mid month pattern looks better for rain.
Along and south of the wedge front this weekend into next week probably starts printing a summer pattern for quite a while.
Wedge kills rain chances again in the classic locations
The heat this weekend and the 2nd half of the week next week seems pretty legit for the time of year

It could be worse I suppose
 
There is talk about a cold frontal passage through the Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Eastern Seaboard in the longer term. For the most part I think that is correct, but I urge caution to take a look at resumption of strong heat ridging first. The CMA/GFS model initiation at 0z shows the dominance of the broad subtropical high across the Northern Hemisphere; weakness over Mexico into the western states is being joined by a stronger trough in the Pacific Northwest, which should move through the center and eastern portion of the continent between June 14 - 18. This being peak sunshine period means that you will have to account for moderation of the cold pool, which implies the heat ridge indentation will not be pronounced, and likely to rebound. This should be a case where Canada gets the greater amount of rain and thunderstorms, and stays normal to cool (much like the NAEFS ensemble members are suggesting). The northern tier of the USA may see some intense convection, with potential for the Great Lakes and Midwest to turn substantially cooler. But I favor the slower changes shown by the operational ECMWF panels, which bring the IcP air mass into the eastern states somewhat briefly in the 11-15 day range.

I also suspect that the ridge returns to its natural hot/dry realm for the West/California for most of June. The model guidance has been so wrong about the western states this spring and summer (overdoing rain and cooler air), and now the 16-20 and 21-25 day range depictions are going full-tilt back into a heatwave that should extend into Texas and the Great Plains. The monthly forecasts for July will, eventually, turn into a hot West/Central vs. mild East alignment. El Nino climatology strongly favors a +PNA shift in the second half of summer. Cold fronts will start to have a larger impact on weather to the right of the Mississippi River once we get past the July 4th holiday weekend. If somehow a tropical cyclone were to organize in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, or Sargasso Sea and move along or just to the right of the East Coast, then the cooler turn will happen sooner. But as of now, it is a Sonoran heat ridge and a concurrent Bermuda High, which is mostly a hot pattern below the Canadian border. The presence of a dense Saharan Air Layer and shearing flow aloft argues against tropical cyclone development in most of the Atlantic Basin.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 11:40 P.M. CT​
 
Btw anyone who has this weather figured out good luck haha

There was a much hyped flood watch in central Oklahoma most places no rain at all

20 miles west of me had a flash flood emergency and 10 inches of rain out of nowhere yesterday

And last night there were tornadoes just over the line in Arkansas with no risk from the SPC or anything

And yeah I've heard talk of a big front mid month too(saw a high of 73 last night on June 18th??? Like what if that happens) but like I said even the short term forecasts have been terrible
 
Brent said:
Btw anyone who has this weather figured out good luck haha

There was a much hyped flood watch in central Oklahoma most places no rain at all

20 miles west of me had a flash flood emergency and 10 inches of rain out of nowhere yesterday

And last night there were tornadoes just over the line in Arkansas with no risk from the SPC or anything

And yeah I've heard talk of a big front mid month too(saw a high of 73 last night on June 18th??? Like what if that happens) but like I said even the short term forecasts have been terrible
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Hearing talk of major heat wave coming in late June also We see.
 
tennessee storm said:
Hearing talk of major heat wave coming in late June also We see.
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Yeah well see. They've already backed off about next weeks heat here and it was getting hype at one point too

I think yesterday here proved there's no point looking weeks out

I mean yes it is about to be summer I'm sure we're gonna have a bad stretch sooner or later
 
SD said:
99 at rdu today 🙄
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Fake news from RDU??

TODAY
MAXIMUM 99 259 PM
——————-
NORTH CAROLINA WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2026

RALEIGH-DURHAM MOSUNNY 93 57 29 VRB3 29.93F

——————-
So, the 99 high was recorded at 2:59PM whereas the 3PM hourly reading was only 93. This is truly bizarre!
 
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