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Pattern Fab Feb

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00z Euro AI, Euro, GFS, and Canadian all showing a weak system for NC with maybe a rain to snow/light snow setup.


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Looked out through LR. Just looks Ho-Humbug/ seasonal throughout Feb. Might can whip something up mid month. If we score its gonna have to catch some 2 day ripple where everything just lines up right. Pattern is going to start its seasonal shuffling, meaning roller coaster time as winter will start its wind down second half of Feb into early March. The CFS now goes out into the 1st week of March. Looks like the Block stays pretty entrenched up over Greenland for next couple of weeks is about only positive Ive noticed. Pretty much just seasonal wx. Which for most of us outside of elevation equals to avg daytime highs evolving and scooting back up into the 50's.

Pattern chasing is no fun after Groundhog day. You have to look for smaller windows than what you look for Nov, Dec and Jan. Occasionally you get some Like 2013, or that March back in the 1960's. So it's doable, but your better served looking for 3-5 day windows that can yield an opportunity
 
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I'm running out of Aces. Been a Fabulous winter as we've basically hit 0, Had 7 winter wx precip events ( 6 all snow). Doubled our annual Snowfall accum / sitting at 14.5. Averaged Below normal Dec and Jan temp wise. Feb is off to Below Normal start. Very fortunate here in this micro climate
 
Looks like the Urban heat island effect really did its thing in CLT metro keeping lows close to 10 in the western part of Union county for the airport in Monroe back to Stallimgs and Indian Trail. Here at my house in the eastern part of the county it bottomed out at 3 this morning and friends I’ve talked to out in the country side were between 1-4
 
NCWeatherhound said:
3 degrees down in Lumberton and Chadbourn. 4 in Hoke County. The snowpack is really earning it's pay this morning.
Click to expand...
EDIT: Omg they actually got down to -1. Insane for Lumberton.

LBT :Lumberton : 32 / -1 / 0.00

Tied for second lowest all-time temp there and coldest since 1989.
 
I’ve posted about how the Icon typically isn’t warm biased since it’s often 2nd coldest only to CMC for lows unless over winter precip cover when GFS sometimes gets insanely cold (<0F) like it did after the icestorm last week. Whereas that’s usually true, it isn’t this morning over deep snow, where Icon is much too warm in some areas! So, perhaps Icon tends to be too warm over deep snow.

I’ve also talked about UKMET often being too warm for lows this winter, which is true although that’s been with no deep snow. I’m stunned to see the role reversal of UK being the coldest/too cold over deep snow vs no snow. And I’ll also check the 0Z GFS/Euro/CMC for 7AM:

Icon/UK/GFS/Euro/CMC

Over deep snowcover (NC):
CLT 15/-3/10/-1/5; actual 11
FAY 17/11/10/13/14; actual 18
RDU 18/16/13/13/15; actual 12
GSO 16/5/13/12/6; actual 6

So, avg miss over deep snow
Icon/UK/GFS/Euro/CMC:
+4.8/-4.5/-0.3/-2.5/-1.8
Warmest Icon, Coldest UK, meaning role reversal!

Over (near) bare ground (GA):
SAV 21/21/27/24/18; actual 24
Columbus 24/26/26/27/17 actual 22
NE ATL 23/25/28/24/15; actual 19
Rome: 24/25/22/24/11; actual 21

So, avg miss over bare ground
Icon/UK/GFS/Euro/CMC
+1.5/+2.8/+4.3/+4.3/-6.3
Warmest GFS/Euro, coldest CMC, with this being the more typical


Sources: 0Z hour 12 of these models:
Icon
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UKMET
IMG_7952.png

GFS
IMG_7953.png

Euro
IMG_7954.png

CMC
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