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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Avalanche said:
Yeah, if there is a chance of a storm system, they usually play it safe until go time, but with this just being flurries I think they feel more comfortable talking about it this far out.
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Flurries? You must not have seen the trends most of the day. Euro and NAM had at least 3 to 4 for Raleigh most of the day.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I have to say it is very frustrating when we are three days out and the models trend better and better and then take a step back in the same day. Not sure how mets would have any faith in them if they go back and forth 72 hours out.
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Which one is taking a step back? I’m just not sure. I haven’t seen one that has today. Also, Brick, don’t take every model run as gospel. Still have 24-48 hours to get all the details settled.
 
Nam0806 said:
Which one is taking a step back? I’m just not sure. I haven’t seen one that has today. Also, Brick, don’t take every model run as gospel. Still have 24-48 hours to get all the details settled.
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The ICON basically threw a goose egg at half the forum on its last run. Somehow a chunk of NC survived unscathed.
 
Nam0806 said:
Which one is taking a step back? I’m just not sure. I haven’t seen one that has today. Also, Brick, don’t take every model run as gospel. Still have 24-48 hours to get all the details settled.
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Agreed, at this point. We could still wind up bone dry, so the chance of flurries is not yet highly determined. Hopefully Monday evening there will be a more set in stone picture.
 
Houston Texas going for its SECOND winter event of the season
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Storm5 said:
An inch or less is the safe bet at the moment . We will have to see how trends go over the next 24 hours . It's possible you could see a little more up that way. Not a big snow with this system but it could have big impacts

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It’s kinda funny how Huntsville doesn’t even issue a special weather statement. They are always the last ones to do something. It’s like they watch what everyone else does first.
 
Avalanche said:
Agreed, at this point. We could still wind up bone dry, so the chance of flurries is not yet highly determined. Hopefully Monday evening there will be a more set in stone picture.
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If you think all we are getting are flurries because that is what the local mets say then I don't know why you come here. That is not what the Euro and NAM have shown most of the time in the last 24 hours.
 
Brick Tamland said:
If you think all we are getting are flurries because that is what the local mets say then I don't know why you come here. That is not what the Euro and NAM have shown most of the time in the last 24 hours.
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I will buy what the NAM is selling beginning tomorrow night. But not yet. Been there, done that.
 
Avalanche said:
I will buy what the NAM is selling beginning tomorrow night. But not yet. Been there, done that.
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NAM and Euro. Not saying what they are showing will happen or change, but if you never think they are right and just go with what the local mets say more than 24 hours out, it is kind of pointless to follow the models and discussion here.
 
It's time to start looking at the RGEM also. This storm is right at the end of its forecasting window for TN, AL, and MS at this point. It's on the drier side of modeling at the moment. Hopefully it starts to trend wetter as it gets closer to its wheelhouse range.
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Brick Tamland said:
NAM and Euro
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No doubt the Euro giveth, but lets not forget it can take it away, its done that for quite sometime. The only reason I think that we can squeeze out some flurries is due to the SW flow and a little lift, UNLESS some other parameters change between now and then, and we both know it will (for better or worse). Lets hope for better!!
 
Avalanche said:
No doubt the Euro giveth, but lets not forget it can take it away, its done that for quite sometime. The only reason I think that we can squeeze out some flurries is due to the SW flow and a little lift, UNLESS some other parameters change between now and then, and we both know it will (for better or worse). Lets hope for better!!
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Good way to end the argument right there.... thanks. Seriously just agree to disagree guys or carry the argument over to banter please. I know I'm responding to your post directly but it's directed at you and Brick in a respectful manner... thanks for flying with southernwx.
 
Brick Tamland said:
If you think all we are getting are flurries because that is what the local mets say then I don't know why you come here. That is not what the Euro and NAM have shown most of the time in the last 24 hours.
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Not so sure in either direction yet. I’m in Greensboro, and it looks okay for us to get 1-2 inches maybe. I don’t know how much for Raleigh and your area, but I would not discount any solution just yet.
 
metwannabe said:
Good way to end the argument right there.... thanks. Seriously just agree to disagree guys or carry the argument over to banter please. I know I'm responding to your post directly but it's directed at you and Brick in a respectful manner... thanks for flying with southernwx.
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Sorry, thanks for having me.
 
Models are definitely confusing, from a consistency standpoint even within a run. Anyway, these 0z runs tonight are huge so all we can do is hope for the best and prepare for the worst but hope we start trending wetter.
 
Here's to hoping that someone in the state gets enough snow from this system to snowchase. Not expecting the Maggie Valley 1 footer that we had in December, but I will drive to jackpot city if there becomes one.
 
Here's one thing we know, Rocky Mount to Brick's area to Metwanna's has been highlighted as the jackpot area on a couple of runs, and so has my county (Chatham). Is it bc of high ratios, but it looks as if the moisture is greater (TN upslope), then dries out to re-establish itself with Atlantic enhancement along the interior coastal plain?.........Yet Triangle area has been favored on the models.
 
RollTide18 said:
Models are definitely confusing, from a consistency standpoint even within a run. Anyway, these 0z runs tonight are huge so all we can do is hope for the best and prepare for the worst but hope we start trending wetter.
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It’s a precarious situation. Slight changes in the ridge out west, the strength of the shortwave, timing of interaction of energy, etc. can create large changes in the end result. Models don’t have the ability to resolve all this at this distance.
 
Rain Cold said:
It’s a precarious situation. Slight changes in the ridge out west, the strength of the shortwave, timing of interaction of energy, etc. can create large changes in the end result. Models don’t have the ability to resolve all this at this distance.
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And they seem to really struggle with jet dynamics.... I recall during the early Dec. system, I think Webb first pointed out that insane jet streak and how there should be more precip (boom it was), the coastal the other week I seem to recall 1300 and Webb both pointing out the jet streak, the right exit region and where the slp should be and more precip on the models (boom it was) and even today Stormsfury, Delta and others pointing out the dual jet signature on the models and there should be more precip..... time will tell.
 
I won't believe any model as far as accumulation until go time. The overall set up and trends yes but amounts, no
 
Well, the great runs of the Euro and NAM started overnight last night. Hope it happens again tonight.
 
metwannabe said:
And they seem to really struggle with jet dynamics.... I recall during the early Dec. system, I think Webb first pointed out that insane jet streak and how there should be more precip (boom it was), the coastal the other week I seem to recall 1300 and Webb both pointing out the jet streak, the right exit region and where the slp should be and more precip on the models (boom it was) and even today Stormsfury, Delta and others pointing out the dual jet signature on the models and there should be more precip..... time will tell.
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Very good point such a super fine line
 
We have a chat room on the front page of the website now. Too much banter is taking place in here.
Also, if you want to talk about the disturbance currently swinging through MS, please use the January main thread.
 
Maybe someone can explain it in more detail, but wouldn't the 850 hPa cyclonic vorticity displayed on the GFS (purple contoured areas) signify more lift out ahead? Which with more lift shouldn't we see more precip than what GFS is advertising right now? (Don't have these maps for NAM so don't know how it compares to GFS). I know shouldn't focus much on what is showing at surface and more on upper level features, but wondering if that is worth paying attention to, or is there a lack of forcing features at 850 or 700mb levels which is causing the line to essentially die off...

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Pup12 said:
For my first post...So with the temperatures expected in North Alabama is it safe to say a half inch to an inch of snow will still cause a lot of road issues? Long time guest and I appreciate ya’lls work.
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Welcome to the forum!! :). Yes it is very possible for this because everything will stick on contact when this event start. It is going to be near 25 degrees when it starts snowing falling into the upper teens when done. Plus you going to look at a higher snow rate of 20:1 so we are actually looking at a 1-3 inches of snow because of this. Something you don’t see everyday in the south.
 
hartselleweather said:
It’s kinda funny how Huntsville doesn’t even issue a special weather statement. They are always the last ones to do something. It’s like they watch what everyone else does first.
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Yeah, over the top conservative on this. Even in the writeup, just didn't seem to really try.
 
JB saying the Euro ensembles are having the right idea!
 
From one of the new members on here, John Deblock of the Birmingham NWS office:
Ok, so here's my take on the upcoming snow threat.

Don't, repeat, DO NOT focus on the amount of snow that is expected to fall. Most areas around here (Birmingham and surrounding communities) look to get less than an inch. To the Northwest, maybe more.

What concerns me is the potential for a period of melting followed by a quick freeze...A situation similar to January 2014. I'm not saying it WILL, but the ingredients may be there. Roads will have a chance to warm tomorrow and into Tuesday before the arctic front pushes through. Depending on how much snow falls and how quickly it falls, we may see a rapid glaze situation.

I'm probably going to pack a few days worth of "camping" supplies when I head to work Tuesday if the forecast remains the same.

Stay tuned!
 
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