Fountainguy97
Member
You guys downstream of this ULL... it's hammering as forcing has picked up.
I'm supposed to get this for another 20 hours? Goodness.
I'm supposed to get this for another 20 hours? Goodness.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
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Oconeexman
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Big googly eyes..column crasher
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Yep It's going to continue forming this mesolow down here in upstate SC. This thing has a serious risk of overpreforming.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
I can confirm that it's all verga right now. But the atmosphere is getting moist fast, wouldnt surprise me for flurries to start sooner than expected due to this.
Oconeexman
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Cantore made it to Walhalla! Awesome!
Makeitsnow
Member
man this is a pretty image.
rburrel2
Member
Euro looks like it cut totals a bit for Raleigh. A tick better for the upstate and Charlotte.
For those in NE Alabama, NW Georgia, and particularly the NW facing Appalachian Mountains, don't be surprised if y'all get some nice snow showers and even squalls tomorrow afternoon and evening.
At that time, the low-level flow is straight north/south from the Great Lakes, over a deep Midwest snowpack on a very cold north wind. Late afternoon will be the most likely time of greatest instability.
At that time, the low-level flow is straight north/south from the Great Lakes, over a deep Midwest snowpack on a very cold north wind. Late afternoon will be the most likely time of greatest instability.
I need this to come to fruition BADLY. And I’m wondering if this is heavily utilized in NWS predictions? Because they’ve still got the triangle with 5-6+ inches whilst multiple models show the awful dry slotting over us
Tokenfreak
Member
What’s the link for that as I’d be interested in checking different time periods? Thanks
Yuck, good thing it's not in it's wheelhouse I guess.
BrickTamland
Member
wow
Member
rburrel2
Member
Pretty good model agreement amongst all the 18z runs for my backyard in Clemson:
Here's total liquid
Here's total liquid
| Hrrr | 18z | 16hr | 0.32 | ||
| NAM | 18z | 16hr | 0.32 | ||
| NAM 3k | 18z | 16hr | 0.31 | ||
| ICON | 18z | 16hr | 0.28 | ||
| GFS | 18z | 16hr | 0.38 | ||
| rgem | 18z | 16hr | 0.23 | ||
| GFS AI | 18z | 16hr | 0.35 | ||
| Euro | 18z | 16hr | 0.4 | ||
| Euro AI | 18z | 16hr | 0.27 |
Howdy yall. My final thoughts on the storm below.
I wanted to write more and accompany this with a snowmap, unfortunately I gotta put in 70 minutes on the elliptical and then bolt to Wilmington. But my thoughts are fully formed. I do think this will be a top 7-9ish storm along and east of Highway 17 to use a Bill Simmons-ism and we will eventually see real blizzard conditions. How neat!
open.substack.com
I wanted to write more and accompany this with a snowmap, unfortunately I gotta put in 70 minutes on the elliptical and then bolt to Wilmington. But my thoughts are fully formed. I do think this will be a top 7-9ish storm along and east of Highway 17 to use a Bill Simmons-ism and we will eventually see real blizzard conditions. How neat!
The Big One 2: Electric Boogaloo
For real this time? Or more weatherman gaslighting? Breaking it all down.
open.substack.com
NBAcentel
Member
Makeitsnow
Member
It's about that time...
chase223322
Member
Is this current? I am just north of baldwin and we havent seen anything so far
BrickTamland
Member
@broken025 Ease up on the MPING it’s coming 
packfan98
Moderator
Some of us between the Triad and Triangle are going to be sitting in the old Carolina split. Folks the East, West, South, and maybe North will be in the 8+ range. The question will be how much accumulation will be in the minimum areas. Euro has 3-4 in those areas. I can handle that much better than a trace to 2”.
Oconeexman
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Yes..its virga mostly but helps saturate the column
Oconeexman
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Been steady as heck in the upstate. Just moving the heavy bands around a little
Packsox03
Member
I agree. If I had to bet where the min will be, I’ll say Burlington. Coastal precip tends to verify a bit NW and the ULL is robust for Metrolina
packfan98
Moderator
I was glad to see that it held steady. I would say that the Op should be favored over the AI at this juncture with the better resolution, although I’m not exactly sure how the AI works with finer details.
BrickTamland
Member
OG Euro has been bouncing back and forth with the precip in the Triangle every run.
NBAcentel
Member
Getting a couple stray snowflakes under this right now 
rburrel2
Member
When this is said and done we will look back and see that the Weathernext more/less had it right for the last 5 days. Everything else is just noise and entertainment.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Reaching surface or verga?
iGRXY
Member
That heaviest band is right over me.
Probably so, although the op Euro has honestly been all over the place over the last day or two, anyways, so I'm not sure how much credence it should even be given.
Crow
Member
Snowing at Kerr Lake Country Club in Henderson, NC
Saskatchewan Screamer
Manitoba Mauler
Here we have the Ontario Obliterator. I haven't seen any cases of winter storms in the Carolinas that entered the U.S. east of North Dakota. So, the OO is debuting for the first time / the maiden voyage. Let's see what its got. Dropping down steep and cold!
Manitoba Mauler
Here we have the Ontario Obliterator. I haven't seen any cases of winter storms in the Carolinas that entered the U.S. east of North Dakota. So, the OO is debuting for the first time / the maiden voyage. Let's see what its got. Dropping down steep and cold!
Brandon10
Member
Euro finally needed up eastern NC. seems most models now in line with WxNext