HailCore
Member
Updated FFC snowfall totals for north and central GA: 
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the parallel NBM looks much more realistic with this storm over NC for the moment and is closer to what I’d probably forecast.
General 3-6” or so area wide, with 2 snow maxes. One snow max i am pretty confident in from around Charlotte and just west and south into the upstate of SC and northern midlands. The other one over the coastal plain which has a higher risk, high reward involved and could shift as far west or north as Raleigh or so depending on how this evolves the next day or so
General 3-6” or so area wide, with 2 snow maxes. One snow max i am pretty confident in from around Charlotte and just west and south into the upstate of SC and northern midlands. The other one over the coastal plain which has a higher risk, high reward involved and could shift as far west or north as Raleigh or so depending on how this evolves the next day or so
i expected 0 snow from this and i end up in a 2-3" zone ill take it
iGRXY
Member
Like I expected. GSP increasing
GSP now has charlottes forecast as blowing snow sat, insane!
iGRXY
Member
This is before the EURO so I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing them continue to increase
wouldn't be shocked to see some blizzard watches for dare county/va beach in the afternoon package
Is that taken at face or add some for ratios?
BrickTamland
Member
Hard to pin down for sure. RAH and WTVD both going with twice that amount here right now.
These wobbles particularly on the western edge are gonna happen leading up to the event. We are on the fringe may luck be in our favor because honestly the truth is we could come to Saturday and get a actually bigger surprise then even models depicted or we could be 0
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- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
I think we're also gonna break Highway 12, yet again
Packsox03
Member
That has been discontinued
I'm not even getting attached to this look but dang.. that band is right over my backyard in Athens. Kind of lowkey impressed how this has trended today. Still time for it to jog a little east and north though.
state's going to have some hard conversations about that highway in the next decade or so
Packsox03
Member
AIFS-ENS trend
Looks identical to the weathernext totals the last 2 days
CAE going with 5-8 inches now. That's an upgrade from 2-5!!
Snow_chaser
Member
lol how yall going to measure your totals with that dry snow blowing around? Be 2-3’ drifts in places and bare ground in others
Stormsfury
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wow! I know everyone here is super pumped for you guys in the midlands of SC, you have all been so snake bitten. I believe a 5-8” event there in Columbia, SC would be the biggest storm since February 2010?!
JQPublic
Member
So I just answered half my questions by putting them into ChatGPT b/c I didn't want to bother the experts on here too much.
- Question 1. What is the best model for winter weather in the southeast...
- Globals
- ECMWF/Euro - Gold Standard (pattern and confidence)
- Pros - CAD, Southern Stream Systems, Does well handling marginal temps, sniffs out winter wx potential ahead of other models
- Cons - slow to correct once committed
- GFS
- Pros - Faster updates; valuable for trend spotting
- Cons - more volatile; Too aggressive with QPF early
- Canadian (GEM)
- Pros - sneaky good with cold air strength; used as sanity check, not leaders
- Cons - occassionally wildly wrong;
- ECMWF/Euro - Gold Standard (pattern and confidence)
- Mesoscale models
- NAM (12km + 3km) - Temps and Precip Type
- Pros - thermal profiles; discerning sleet vs. snow vs. frz rn
- Cons - can overdo QPF; Sometimes hangs onto cold air too long
- HRRR (0-18hrs) - final details
- Pros - Nowcasting, Banding, Rapid changes near onset
- Cons - not reliable beyond 15-18hrs
- RGEM
- Pros - underrated for winter setups; sometimes outperforms NAM with CAD
- NAM (12km + 3km) - Temps and Precip Type
- Globals
- Question 2: Why does NWS use the NBM?
- Think of it as 'what usually works best here, given everything we know now". So NWS forecasters start with NBM and then manually adjust using NAM/HRRR/experience
- Pros - Consistency, Bias correction, Probablistic output, operational reality
- Cons - too conservative, CAD erosion errors, smoothing kills extremes
- Think of it as 'what usually works best here, given everything we know now". So NWS forecasters start with NBM and then manually adjust using NAM/HRRR/experience
Bigedd09
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Well, the 12z eps isnt matching up with the op very well. Drier across the board. Lots of nuances with this one.
My updated publicly-facing forecast for Georgia 
Feels like we should be using 2 separate trend gifs for AIFS - one for 00/12 and one for 06/18 as that wobble makes it impossible to actually compare.
Moving closer to the AIFS solution there
MichaelJ
Member
Fact is pinpointing a specific location is next to impossible at this point. Where the ULL goes and the strength of it will determine which area wins and which one loses. To expect a Global model to be that precise (20-25 miles here 20-25 miles there) is unrealistic and foolhardy. The CAMS will have a better idea but I wouldn't be on them either with such a dynamic system as we have. After the event we will know for sure but not until then. My guess and everyone else is just that, a guess
To the roof with an X-large pizza of your choice!
Not terrible, at least (widespread 5-10" for most of NC / SC). The ensembles are ran at a lower resolution, right? Wonder if they could be missing some of the mesoscale features as a result? Or perhaps this is wishcasting.
It is SO SO strange how the 18z/6z runs have been so different from the 12z/0z runs. Don't typically see the jumpiness like that.. and it is across the board-- all models that initialize with ECMWF are having this. Even AIFS-ENS and WeatherNext.
You know maybe it’s a coincidence but looking that map, it’s got me roughly at 7.33”. The latest Hourly graphs that GSP has at my location is for a storm total of 7.1”
rusrius
Member
For this location, yes.
Packsox03
Member
Well, it’s a blessing and a curse. If you’re in a subsidence zone you will be very disappointed
I can’t find the most recent but I assume it’s much worse than this.
Point being, it ends here
Point being, it ends here
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Can definitely see hints of the dry slot there around US-1 and I-95 too. The only area that’s really seeing a lot of run to run consistency is back over Charlotte into the upstate or SC
NEGaweather
Member
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Shew buddy
Outside of the Blizzard warning that was issued short notice in March 1993, I don’t know that I have ever seen blowing snow in CLT’s forecast