• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

NBAcentel said:
Don’t sleep on the ULL/TPV extension for areas further west, esp WNC/upstate of SC. It could do some work here, Tropopause heights look ridiculously low this weekend under that as well
Click to expand...
They almost always do from what I've seen in these type events. Just north of where ULL comes thru gets a thump if I recall.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
I know we keep saying "Oh it'll trend NW" but by what mechanism exactly? Western ridge will soften or scoot to the west? N/S won't be as dominant?
Click to expand...

It already has been trending N/NW.

The models are typically too far SE due to a bias. So, we’re betting the streak. How much more will they trend NW? Well, nobody knows as it depends on how much the models are still off from reality.
 
GaWx said:
It already has been trending N/NW.

The models are typically too far SE due to a bias. So, we’re betting the streak. How much more will they trend NW? Well, nobody knows as it depends on how much the models are still off from reality.
Click to expand...

We've seen suppression evaporate snow chances in this range as well. All the times we saw a snowmap paint over central NC and the coastal plain only to have it completely offshore. Weathernext2 is not trending NW.
 
blueheronNC said:
We've seen suppression evaporate snow chances in this range as well. All the times we saw a snowmap paint over central NC and the coastal plain only to have it completely offshore. Weathernext2 is not trending NW.
Click to expand...

I think you actually can get both in this situation and that is what Larry is alluding too. You can have the northern stream weaken and trend NW and at the same time your storm become more diffuse and trend east. Right now the big snow chances hang on a rapid negative tilting cut off and trough, a very anomalous one at that.
 
KyloG said:
Cherry picking some of the CIPs analogs...these seem to do well for some of us in the past


View attachment 189625View attachment 189626
Click to expand...
February 12th, 2010 has no precedent before this if anyone is interested. I remember researching that before doing prognostic discussion back then. Such an anomalously strong +AO push kept the players quite far south but also had a much earlier development. Low took shape in the Western Central Gulf, deepened a bit faster than models progged. This airmass is colder and considering what kind of snowpack we have after the past weekend storm, don't really think there will be major shifts, but minor adjustments as we progress.
FB_IMG_1769452480018.jpg
 
Stormsfury said:
February 12th, 2010 has no precedent before this if anyone is interested. I remember researching that before doing prognostic discussion back then. Such an anomalously strong +AO push kept the players quite far south but also had a much earlier development. Low took shape in the Western Central Gulf, deepened a bit faster than models progged. This airmass is colder and considering what kind of snowpack we have after the past weekend storm, don't really think there will be major shifts, but minor adjustments as we progress.
View attachment 189628
Click to expand...

Dang...good catch. Yeah, huge blizzard for the mid-atlantic on 2/6. This potential looks close to 2/12/10...it was showing up on the analogs



2010020600.gifcompday.DISBDitSlX.gif
 
KyloG said:
Dang...good catch. Yeah, huge blizzard for the mid-atlantic on 2/6. This potential looks close to 2/12/10...it was showing up on the analogs



View attachment 189633View attachment 189634
Click to expand...
2/6/2010 was one of the two famous Mid-Atlantic "snowmageddon" storms of the 2010 season. The Triad actually got 2-4" from it before it changed over to rain. This was one of the most memorable storms to observe, even from afar.

1769456924697.png

1769456988810.png
 
rburrel2 said:
And don’t forget that’s 10:1 ratios…. Whew. Crush job for SC/NC
Click to expand...
a long duration one at that. Atlanta would even do well....at least 3 or 4.
Mahomeless said:
This was never going to be our storm in AL/GA....H5 is all wrong.
Click to expand...
I know Alabama isnt in the prime location to be but you shouldn't lump ga in with it. Every model but the ukmet gives ga accumulating snow.
 
f8bea7bbbb753658550df115be19e111.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
c371bbdd85506e473872d828d37c2ce7.png

9bd2d3ff91146c42505784c3a148e1a3.png

Snippets from the WPC discussion this afternoon favoring a coastal low idea, but uncertainty remains with the track. Consensus favors eastern NC and coastal southern New England for the heaviest snow potential for now. Subject to change!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Oconeexman said:
Yup that looks right..me and burrel blanked...perfect
If it stays locked in this far out id be shocked. Hopefully changes come and include some more folks on here
Click to expand...
We’re in a good spot for this one I think; wide goal posts for a solid event. We can score 1-3 inches from the vort max pass without relying on bombing out/occlusion stuff.
 
Stormsfury said:
February 12th, 2010 has no precedent before this if anyone is interested. I remember researching that before doing prognostic discussion back then. Such an anomalously strong +AO push kept the players quite far south but also had a much earlier development. Low took shape in the Western Central Gulf, deepened a bit faster than models progged. This airmass is colder and considering what kind of snowpack we have after the past weekend storm, don't really think there will be major shifts, but minor adjustments as we progress.
View attachment 189628
Click to expand...
This is not a picture of the February 12th 2010 snowstorm. That storm was an I-20 special.

AI Overview



On February 12, 2010,
a rare and historic winter storm brought heavy, wet snow to the Deep South and Southeast United States, contributing to a remarkable event where snow was on the ground in 49 of the 50 states simultaneously. The storm, which occurred during a strong El Niño, caused significant travel disruptions, power outages, and school closures across the region.
Regional Snowfall and Impacts (Feb 12-13, 2010)
  • South Carolina: Heavily impacted with 4–8 inches of snow, including 8.6 inches in Columbia, which was the city's 6th largest snow event. Over 1,500 auto accidents were reported, and 37,000 homes lost power.
  • Georgia: A large swath of 3–6 inches fell across Central Georgia. Savannah recorded nearly an inch of snow.
  • Alabama & Florida Panhandle: A "rare" heavy snow event occurred, with up to 7 inches in interior southwest Alabama and accumulating snow down to the Gulf Coast.
  • Louisiana & Texas: Snow fell for over 12 hours in central Louisiana, with 1–4 inches of accumulation. In Texas, a record 12.6 inches fell in Dallas, and up to 20 inches in areas near the upper coast.
  • Mid-Atlantic: This event was part of a series of storms in Feb 2010, often referred to as "Snowmageddon," which dropped 20+ inches in areas like Virginia and Maryland just days before this event.
Key Details
  • Timing: The heaviest snow fell from Friday evening, February 12, into Saturday morning, February 13.
  • Conditions: The snow was described as very heavy and wet, causing widespread power outages from falling branches and tree limbs.
  • Temperature: The storm was powered by cold arctic air, allowing for snow in southern regions that rarely see significant accumulation.
 
tonysc said:
This is not a picture of the February 12th 2010 snowstorm. That storm was an I-20 special.

AI Overview



On February 12, 2010,
a rare and historic winter storm brought heavy, wet snow to the Deep South and Southeast United States, contributing to a remarkable event where snow was on the ground in 49 of the 50 states simultaneously. The storm, which occurred during a strong El Niño, caused significant travel disruptions, power outages, and school closures across the region.
Regional Snowfall and Impacts (Feb 12-13, 2010)
  • South Carolina: Heavily impacted with 4–8 inches of snow, including 8.6 inches in Columbia, which was the city's 6th largest snow event. Over 1,500 auto accidents were reported, and 37,000 homes lost power.
  • Georgia: A large swath of 3–6 inches fell across Central Georgia. Savannah recorded nearly an inch of snow.
  • Alabama & Florida Panhandle: A "rare" heavy snow event occurred, with up to 7 inches in interior southwest Alabama and accumulating snow down to the Gulf Coast.
  • Louisiana & Texas: Snow fell for over 12 hours in central Louisiana, with 1–4 inches of accumulation. In Texas, a record 12.6 inches fell in Dallas, and up to 20 inches in areas near the upper coast.
  • Mid-Atlantic: This event was part of a series of storms in Feb 2010, often referred to as "Snowmageddon," which dropped 20+ inches in areas like Virginia and Maryland just days before this event.
Key Details
  • Timing: The heaviest snow fell from Friday evening, February 12, into Saturday morning, February 13.
  • Conditions: The snow was described as very heavy and wet, causing widespread power outages from falling branches and tree limbs.
  • Temperature: The storm was powered by cold arctic air, allowing for snow in southern regions that rarely see significant accumulation.
Click to expand...
I think stormfury's attached pic was the aftermath of the winter storm we had over the weekend, not 2.12.10
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top