Im curious what his thoughts were during January 2025. I believe it’s just built into his programming. He’s a weenie like the rest of us. Did he think that gulf coast blizzard was coming north last year?
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
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Makeitsnow
Member
That would probably be a 4 to 6 inch snow for ne ga and the upstate when taking ratios into consideration
Crazy high end setup with what is modeled currently. I've got some concerns about the evolution Dec 00 type outcome sticks out or just a general not enough blocking so this gradually leaks north on models. But the high end potential makes chasing this one worth it for years if it hits
EPS SLP trend:
Go NW young man as usual. ATL’s best bet would have been a W trend to well out into the Gulf rather than NW, which favors areas to ATL’s northeast. But W trends aren’t what usually happens. (Thus, at this point, I don’t expect to be making a trip to ATL to be there this weekend). And if this keeps correcting too far NW, more of NC will be left out of anything significant:
Go NW young man as usual. ATL’s best bet would have been a W trend to well out into the Gulf rather than NW, which favors areas to ATL’s northeast. But W trends aren’t what usually happens. (Thus, at this point, I don’t expect to be making a trip to ATL to be there this weekend). And if this keeps correcting too far NW, more of NC will be left out of anything significant:
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The closed off low should really be much, much further east and south. Barring that I'd be okay if this low just drifted west towards TN & KY
SnowNiner
Member
That footprint is absolutely classic, and you love to see it. This setup though seems to favor the Raleigh area however as the storm is still so far off the coast on the Google IMO. I have my doubts we get that much with it so far east. I know west trending eventually gets you in trouble, but for 77 and west I'd love to see a couple more ticks west.
Since this is a Miller A, it's likely not going to run west to east along the gulf which are my favorite storms, but hopefully we can get the qpf starting at least in GA and run NE.
Bigedd09
Member
Someone said even if the low is further east we’d still do fairly well in the western Carolina’s with the northern energy
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NEGaweather
Member
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
Raleigh - Richmond Hammer
Tsappfrog20
Member
Wral is alright talking about this weekend and has a 30% chance of Snow Saturday and Sunday
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Brandon10
Member
Now we begin with 12z....Its the NAM but it shows a stout piece of NS Energy on Friday diving down and it is veryyyy cold.
Icon next.
Icon next.
packfan98
Moderator
Quick reminder to put your wishes and complaints to the banter thread.
And as always, may the models ever be in your favor!
And as always, may the models ever be in your favor!
The regular Euro is dropping the closed upper low, slowing it down in the base of the trough, and working it toward negative tilt quicker than any of the op / ensemble runs I believe. The Euro is probably on the western side of the EPS solutions in terms of it riding up the coast as a noreaster. The WNext and EPS show more of the snow footprint there for typical storms that have a more focused hit in parts of the SE and Southern Mid-Atlantic. Either is possible here
bncho
Member
ICON is awful...
if you hate snow!
if you hate snow!
Brandon10
Member
12Z ICON is more organized, stays offshore enough to keep warm nose at bay. Decent Snow much of SC and NC as it heads NE. THis is up to hour 132
Bigedd09
Member
Icon off to a good start at 12z!
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ICON continues the good trend. Ga., as usual, is marginal at the surface while the LP was still in the GOM
NCWeatherNow
Member
Digs pretty nicely
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Yeah it pops a legit gulf low at hour 102, but it's too warm in GA until it gets cranking off the Carolina coast.
packfan98
Moderator
Acceptable
ABC11 as well they have for Saturday "Snow Showers?" when I saw the 7 day earlier
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wow
Member
What a killer setup for a noreaster in the SE ala Jan 2000
Hopefully keeps trending better where we can get 1-3 inches
Can you post that 12z frame at 114hrs
NCWeatherhound
Member
Can the mods make a rule that, in order to post, a person must be able to at least identify their home county on a map? It would save a lot of aggravation.
That will do it.
Cold dry snow.
No snowman kinda snow
No snowman kinda snow
Cannot deny the trend. Seeing the trough keeping digging deeper south and more negative tilt is just as big as the westward move for us in AL.
Is this a good or bad thing
Makeitsnow
Member
Look at the surface temps and 850s...ratios would be very high...snows in the teens here
NEGaweather
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
990mb surface low ESE of Hatteras at hr 132 12z icon
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BHS1975
Member
This would get those insane totals further south.
Here ya go.
NBAcentel
Member
Icon EPS looks pretty good. Most if not all of this is QPF from the storm itself, and all frozen 
rburrel2
Member
One good thing... if this lobe keeps trending West... we get the gulf much more involved for Friday night. So even if the 5h low cuts off much further north... we are potentially still getting hit hard on the front end from this.
Just saying it's a way we score, even if we ultimately lose the cut off to our north.
Just saying it's a way we score, even if we ultimately lose the cut off to our north.
