Big data big snow
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
When does the WeatherNext run?
I'm not seeing anything from GFS, EURO, or their AI counterparts. Am I missing something?
NCPROGRAMMER
Member
Whoa, this is jumping the gun. Big time. haha
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Tbh, this "potential" is fairly cut and dry for me. The risk is that the southern wave gets smacked lower by the northern wave and we're left high and dry.
From what I'm seeing on the EPS and AI Euro Ensembles, it's still flagging the potential, but the EPS took a slight step back from 0z.
NBAcentel
Member
Look at the AIFS/EPS/weathernext ENS
broken025
Member
Love it. Let’s go!!
This is our big one (for real this time)
SnowNiner
Member
Classic Miller A or bust. If we can’t get it in this pattern it’s never gonna happen.
Were just in the calibration phase, here in the next 24 hours the new king is gonna lock in
Now that's the thread mojo we been missing
Sometimes, you’ve got to manifest the storm you want!!!
I’m driving down to Charlotte the morning of the 31st to visit a friend and see the basketball game in Charlotte and back home here on Sunday, so it would figure we’d get a storm then, LOL. Already spent several hundred dollars on a hotel and tickets..
NBAcentel
Member
EPS with a coastal plain special, AIFS ens with a more widespread look 
Before I die I really hope one of 2 things happen #1 the models get so good they lock in at day 5
#2 folks finally understand that you don't want a storm on your doorstep at day 5-10. You want it as far SE as you can get it, it's going to move NW 80+% of the time
#2 folks finally understand that you don't want a storm on your doorstep at day 5-10. You want it as far SE as you can get it, it's going to move NW 80+% of the time
SnowNiner
Member
Right where you want it a week out imo.
Downeastnc
Member
Long range model runs are dead to me
The aggressive storm thread title - that's worth the price of admission in here alone - love it, we are so back!
I'm still going with these thoughts from yesterday at this time..."I'm kind of mixed on this setup. Pattern is there. Suppressed storm track is there. High potential is there. Like wow has mentioned I believe, I'd like to see the southern stream wave be stronger as it works thru the western ridging and the Rockies. That helps with its ability to dig into the SE and turn the corner. If the wave is weak, it gets bullied as it's trying to dig and isn't able to assert itself into a storm. Ideally, the wave is either quite strong and goes about digging and tilting itself....or it's moderately strong and the western appendage of the TPV drops in and phases with it (or a combo of those scenarios!)"
I'm still going with these thoughts from yesterday at this time..."I'm kind of mixed on this setup. Pattern is there. Suppressed storm track is there. High potential is there. Like wow has mentioned I believe, I'd like to see the southern stream wave be stronger as it works thru the western ridging and the Rockies. That helps with its ability to dig into the SE and turn the corner. If the wave is weak, it gets bullied as it's trying to dig and isn't able to assert itself into a storm. Ideally, the wave is either quite strong and goes about digging and tilting itself....or it's moderately strong and the western appendage of the TPV drops in and phases with it (or a combo of those scenarios!)"
wow
Member
Beep beep boop boop. Foot of snow for humans.
blueheronNC
Member
Starting to run now for 12z. Next weekend timeframe should be in 10-15 min.
Pops
Member
Grew up in renfroe,was telling my daddy about this model run the other day..he still lives there..never even seen modeled snowfall that bad in my life..lolCrossing fingers. If it at this it's dead to me...
WxBlue
Meteorologist
A+ thread title.
12z WeatherNext Ensemble Mean
wow
Member
Beautiful
It was a tick SE from prior run
broken025
Member
Snow/sleet on the ground, playoff football, and a new storm thread for next week. Today is a good day.
blueheronNC
Member
Model only started roughly resolving the LP in the past three cycles. I’d give it until this gets inside 150 hours at least to start drawing conclusions on track
rburrel2
Member
Are we witnessing history here? Where all physics based models are shown to be antiquated?
Edit: I guess it is pretty for south and east with the surface low. it can be close to right and it whiff the east coast.
12z WeathernNext Snow
NEGaweather
Member
Chris Majewski just said on his live stream that there is 0 chance of a storm next weekend, that everything would get buried to Cuba. Bold lol
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Recent trends have been more to a late blooming Carolina coastal....we'll see where we go from here
SnowNiner
Member
There’s your stronger vort again. Looks like it and AIFS Ens are in lock step already. Keep it here for 4 days and let the NW trend begin.
campamy
Member
How much, if any, does the current and still ongoing storm have on what the models are seeing right now? Also ALREADY seeing fools on fb post about it. Literally this morning "Models locked in on giving us 13!"
Just a warning, coastal tend to trend NW in days 2-4, and then east after that...
SnowNiner
Member
We just get the same ampage that this weeks system got, and boom, board wide storm.
Stormsfury
Member
February 2010 would like to have a word with Chris.
Mahomeless
Member
Wish the AI models weren't already pretty locked in on the H5 pattern.....