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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

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That Euro AI ensemble that fro posted is an absolute thing of beauty for the majority of the board and the weathernext is holding steady. I’m not sure why some are upset having those two on our side. The GFS is dead to me anyways. It’s Sunday and we have 6 days to go. I believe I’ll take my chances after being in the sweet spot at this lead point for the last two events and whiffing terribly.
 
Alright folks. This is a storm thread and not one for mindless banter. Don’t lose your ability to post in this thread. If you get banned from multiple threads in one week, common sense tell us that you are not adding value to our forum and it would be better without your presence.
 
EPS members Sunday morning. Some develop a storm that is quite strong while still maintaining a decent distance from the coast

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Since miller As are what comes to mind here Ill show one as a reference.


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Not the mama said:
Serious question. Does weathernext2 also have a tendency to trend NW or is that just a typical standard model trend. Also does anyone know why they end up ticking NW so frequently?
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According to conversations I had with pro met. Brad Harvey going back a number of years, it appears to largely be related to the models not handing the warm pool in the WPAC well causing them to be biased too far SE. I can recall this going back to the late 2010s and it has been pretty relentless since, almost like clockwork. So, as the models get closer to the event, they “trend” NW to catch up with reality.
 
GaWx said:
According to conversations I had with pro met. Brad Harvey going back a number of years, it appears to largely be related to the models not handing the warm pool in the WPAC well causing them to be biased too far SE. I can recall this going back to the late 2010s and it has been pretty relentless since, almost like clockwork. So, as the models get closer to the event, they “trend” NW to catch up with reality.
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And I honestly cannot ever think of an event that models had missing us to the nw come trend se as we got closer.
 
Stormsfury said:
February 2010 would like to have a word with Chris.
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I think the way KCHS worded this in an earlier discussion is perfect:

THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.

That was earlier and they have since removed that in later discussions.

Starting with the early afternoon forecast, they introduced a 20% chance of rain along the coast for Saturday. Then the next forecast, which goes out through Sun, extended that into Sunday. This looks like a good way to handle this low chance possibility though not to be ignored although I suppose they could have said mix or generic “precip”, but this is fine. The odds this far out, despite models suggesting to watch this period, favor this ending up as little or nothing per climo as well as the typical NW trend which could easily bring this much too far NW for the coast to get wintry. How many times have we seen this occur? A whole lot of times. So, low odds as of now for coastal wintry.


SATURDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 40. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15 IN THE
MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15.
SUNDAY
SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15 IN THE MORNING.
 
A lot of it depends on the location and movement of the high pressure, if it is too far east and booking it, the storm escapes to the east, if it is too far west, it becomes an Apps runner and causes a Miller B that transfers to the low forming off the coast. Where it reforms off the coast is critical for those who want snow, too far East the Western areas get squat, if it hugs or only 50-75 miles off the coast line the eastern half of the States (NC,SC, Va) mix or miss and the Western areas have a field day. As Webber has mentioned many times, the best way to get a board wide storm is overrunning from a low just north of the Gulf coast
 
Yeah, while suppression does still worry me here with this pattern, I do have my suspicions that this is the same ole' game here.

Wonder if the ensembles here can pop more this time as that was a heck of a jump.
 
MichaelJ said:
A lot of it depends on the location and movement of the high pressure, if it is too far east and booking it, the storm escapes to the east, if it is too far west, it becomes an Apps runner and causes a Miller B that transfers to the low forming off the coast. Where it reforms off the coast is critical for those who want snow, too far East the Western areas get squat, if it hugs or only 50-75 miles off the coast line the eastern half of the States (NC,SC, Va) mix or miss and the Western areas have a field day. As Webber has mentioned many times, the best way to get a board wide storm is overrunning from a low just north of the Gulf coast
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The best bet for a SE boardwide storm is for the low being further south than you said. A low N of the Gulf coast will usually eliminate the deep SE and often even up to Atlanta, for example. It needs to be well down into the Gulf and cross the FL peninsula along with a very expansive precip shield to its north. Examples include Feb of 1899 and Feb of 1914.
 
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