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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

LukeBarrette said:
I keep watching the HRRR do this but in all reality it doesn’t matter too much. A lot of that precip in Tennessee is virga per soundings.
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You can easily use the total snowfall to see what snow is reaching the ground or not. Some of it yes, some it not.
 
The odo said:
Matters for us in N AL
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I would be watching like a hawk no doubt if I was in your position. Although soundings are not encouraging at this point. Warm nose + little saturation in the dendritic growth zone.
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This storm is so large and sprawling that our short range models can’t even see all of it yet. It’s hard to trust the total outcome that’s still over 48 hours away from ending. I certainly don’t trust the hrrr more than 12 hours out. I don’t trust the nam suite more than 30 hours out. I guess that leaves the RGEM and the euro since they have higher resolution. Tonight’s runs should help give us some more confidence if they don’t throw us a curve ball.
 
Something worth watching over the next 12 hours of runs is how dry this tongue of extremely dry dewpoints trends. It dives south into VA and NC and even into SC. There will be a LOT of virga out ahead ahead of this storm and could eat at some snow totals especially in VA. @Ross I would keep an eye on this closely for Richmond area.
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LukeBarrette said:
Something worth watching over the next 12 hours of runs is how dry this tongue of extremely dry dewpoints trends. It dives south into VA and NC and even into SC. There will be a LOT of virga out ahead ahead of this storm and could eat at some snow totals especially in VA. @Ross I would keep an eye on this closely for Richmond area.
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I get it if you're looking at model reflectivity outputs, but don't model precip outputs account for saturating the column?
 
chapelhillwx said:
I get it if you're looking at model reflectivity outputs, but don't model precip outputs account for saturating the column?
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Some models do, not all. The FV3 is the best example of a model that does not.1769215739057.png
As you can see this would not have snow getting to the ground.
 
You know the CAD setup is good when it can wrap around to the Cumberland Plateau and trigger an ice storm for the winter hellhole of Tennessee (aka Chattanooga). Hasn't been a warning criteria glaze here since 2005. The key here is wetbulbs temps when precip begins. 29 or less will deliver warning criteria. 30 is marginal. 31-32 is novelty. Literally won't know what we're dealing with it until starts.

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If any of yall boys need anything over the next several days and I’m able to help in anyway don’t hesitate to reach out. This is our domain. No matter how amateur most of us are, especially me, this is a big moment for the hobby. I want to shout out @Parker who offered to meet me halfway between Alabama and Greenville SC to let me use his generator today. Luckily I didn’t end up needing it but that meant a lot.
 
jackendrickwx said:
i still don’t think this will happen at my house but the idea that it is not terribly far from the realm of possibility
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Yeah man you guys down in the southern part of the heart of the wedge I hate it for you and that these totals are even a possibility.
 
NCPROGRAMMER said:
Looks slightly north and warmer. NC may struggle to get moisture or cold. I will take it.
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Moisture actually filling in further south this run but we're dissecting the long range HRRR which is fun but that's about it lol
 
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