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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

RGEM spares Atlanta. NE burbs, smoked.

MSnowAtl said:
Both...the heaviest of the ice will be Northeast of the city. We will see ice then turn to rain if the CAD erodes quick, which is never the case. I think the GFS/ICON are overdoing the totals though.
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MSnowAtl said:
Both...the heaviest of the ice will be Northeast of the city. We will see ice then turn to rain if the CAD erodes quick, which is never the case. I think the GFS/ICON are overdoing the totals though.
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You'd better hope the RGEM is handling the wedge correctly. It's another prolific QPF producer. It's been said to handle CAD well. We will see. Underestimating the staying power of such a strong CAD is a dangerous game. pivotal-weather-rdps-prateptype-imp-us_se.gif
 
WxGSO said:
In the past the models are always a step ahead of themselves eroding the CAD too fast. This is about as strong of a CAD you will ever see and I just can't imagine it eroding quickly. With that said, with heavy freezing rain and latent heat release, this may aid somewhat where the heaviest of liquid precip occurs.
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Not challenging your expertise here with respect to CAD and I believe it too. However would you also say this event is presenting a goliath amp warm nose as well. Big battle going on?
 
jrips27 said:
Wonder if FFC will maybe go Ice Storm Warning for Fulton County (Atlanta). Think it’s issued when there’s a greater than 80% chance .25” or more. Most recent graphic I saw had Atlanta at 73%.

North Fulton likely has higher odds. Anyone know when the last ice storm warning was for Atlanta?
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MSnowAtl said:
Maybe Feb 2014.
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For the Feb 2014 storm, I believe a Winter Storm Warning was issued. You got a little bit of everything with that storm. I still lived in the city at the time and remember the wedge rolling in with sleet & zr...After a dry slot, a cold core low moved in & dropped between 2 & 4 inches of snow.
 
CaryWx said:
Not challenging your expertise here with respect to CAD and I believe it too. However would you also say this event is presenting a goliath amp warm nose as well. Big battle going on?
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Yes, you are correct but at the same time this is a MASSIVE CAD. Only time will tell but I never bet against the CAD....just saying.
 
I am not buying the ICON/GFS scenario. I think the precip will be more in line with the EURO/UKMET/RGEM , and a lot more sleet than anything else. The cut off and changeover lines will be very sharp and a distance of 25-50 miles will be enormous both in p-type and QPF. With the system slowing and the high moving east, this will impact the p-type and QPF for a lot of folks in NC/SC and even Va. I would look for more sleet/snow from north and west of W-S, with the majority of it being IP. From the triad to the triangle, there will be a sharp difference IMO with the triad getting more sleet and the triangle getting more ZR and also with slightly less QPF. We still have 3 more model runs to go before onset in the upper SE so things could change but it will be marginally different not any huge changes. Atlanta might get lucky here and have some nasty ZR but rain at the end will help cut down on the amount that accrete.
 
Basically if you live ATL/Marietta/Smyrna area at this point your just gonna have to observe two things Saturday afternoon/night.

1. Radar returns back to the SW if the moisture fetch is filling up or not.
2. The https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18 and monitor for the CAD temps around surface and just how strong and how deep it goes

This while be the only way you can probably figure out if your gonna get hammered or a cold rain at this point. The models are sorta once again all over the place!
 
Does anyone have any thoughts on what happens when we start as ZR and transition to rain at the end of a storm? Will the rain wash away the ice on trees and roads will be fine until we drop below freezing again Sunday night? Or does it not work like that? Specifically referring to the ATL area. Can’t remember any ZR to rain storms in recent years
 
NWS has updated and increased ice accumulation
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Wild Weather Monger said:
RGEM spares Atlanta. NE burbs, smoked.




You'd better hope the RGEM is handling the wedge correctly. It's another prolific QPF producer. It's been said to handle CAD well. We will see. Underestimating the staying power of such a strong CAD is a dangerous game. View attachment 188030
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Once again, Atlanta seems to be right on the edge of the precipice. Slight adjustments is the difference between .15 inch of ice or .6-.8 inch of ice. I can see why the FFC is still hesistant to pull the trigger on a ice storm warning. Icon/GFS is doomsday while this looks so much better.
 
neelsamb said:
Does anyone have any thoughts on what happens when we start as ZR and transition to rain at the end of a storm? Will the rain wash away the ice on trees and roads will be fine until we drop below freezing again Sunday night? Or does it not work like that? Specifically referring to the ATL area. Can’t remember any ZR to rain storms in recent years
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It will weaken it and melt it some but depending on accretion amounts, it likely doesn’t wash it all away.
 
WxBlue said:
Keep in mind yesterday's map ended at 7 am Sunday and today's map pushed it back 24 hours. This was yesterday's map for 3 days.
View attachment 188050
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Yeah so it’s still in the range because they are both til 7am Monday. But they did up their expected amounts from 1:40am. That’s probably what he’s talking about
 
neelsamb said:
Does anyone have any thoughts on what happens when we start as ZR and transition to rain at the end of a storm? Will the rain wash away the ice on trees and roads will be fine until we drop below freezing again Sunday night? Or does it not work like that? Specifically referring to the ATL area. Can’t remember any ZR to rain storms in recent years
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The problem is. It’s possible the damage will have already been done. If the tree/power line has already fallen, it can melt, but it’s still on the ground. Let’s just hope the lighter precip models win.
 
atlwx said:
The problem is. It’s possible the damage will have already been done. If the tree/power line has already fallen, it can melt, but it’s still on the ground. Let’s just hope the lighter precip models win.
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Any melting before the strong NW winds kick in Monday morning will be quite helpful.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Any melting before the strong NW winds kick in Monday morning will be quite helpful.
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It’s supposed to be pretty windy during the zr event too, no? But yes, grateful for any and all the help to mitigate. Need power. 8 degrees and no power will be miserable.
 
A surface low in central VA, that's...uh, different? UKMET is juicy and has 1-2" of QPF of frozen for the NC metros, in any case. The UKMET warms RDU from 33 to 48 between hr 63 and 66, LOL. Seems odd. It also looks relatively promising with regards to front-end snow, though I do not have soundings for this model.

I think I would chalk this up to the UKMET not handling CAD well, but who knows.

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