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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

GFS/Icon roughly the same general idea of a big I-20 north frz rain window
FV-HRW out to 60 :/ was actually looking pretty dang good(Along with the WRF Meso
RGEM/NAM: Same general Idea with AL/GA.Carolinas of cutting and some CAD frz into the CAD regions Carolinas and GA

Any Sampling on GFS made relative little different seemed to pretty much stay on track there but someone put a balloon up on in Canada and figure out where that N. Stream is and where is it actually going!!!
 
The biggest ice storm red flag for me would’ve been the short range modeling showing an early transition. I think we’ve stopped the bleeding IMBY with freezing rain tonight and maybe even gained some ground in having the vast majority of QPF being sleet.
 
Btownheel said:
Yeh we’re gonna get a concrete job. Question is if we can sneak a 3-5 front end thump of snow first before the pour starts. Honestly that will be tons of fun.


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Agree. Ive not given up quick front thump, but not getting hopes up. Need to see sleet map off gfs, if one exist.
All about qpf . Do we get 1.5 - 2.0? If so, we could easily end up with a half a foot of sleet.
 
Are these little disturbances in MT and ND
Doing anything to round two of the storm? The interaction!??IMG_4394.png
 
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beanskip said:
I know everybody is operating under the assumption that this QPF number are overdone, esp. when its in the teens/low 20s.

But, what if they aren actually close. I've been in an ice storm when .5 inches of liquid basically led to 100 percent power outages. 2 inches is just insane.
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I would be the most scared of a catastrophic ice event between say US 64 and I-20. Frankly, we’ve never, in so far as I can ever remember, had freezing rain around twenty. That’s like some of those Quebec ice events.
 
BullCityWx said:
I would be the most scared of a catastrophic ice event between say US 64 and I-20. Frankly, we’ve never, in so far as I can ever remember, had freezing rain around twenty. That’s like some of those Quebec ice events.
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2014 Augusta crusher? Masters destroyer??
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS is becoming just borderline useless, and not just for tropical cyclones either. I swear this model has honestly gotten worse over the last several months. Most recent run completely caved to the Euro camp (shocker I know)
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Its showing way more ice than the Euro though for ATL
 
speed:

fram_acc-imp.us_state_nc_va.png
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This is terrifying
 
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ZR totals from the Canadian appear to have increased for parts of NE GA, probably because this run actually hung on to the CAD for longer which is is more believable than the Euro completely erasing it after a short time IMO. Obviously these totals are overdone because QPF and Canadian, but I don't see this threat going away anytime soon for those regions.
 
beanskip said:
I know everybody is operating under the assumption that this QPF number are overdone, esp. when its in the teens/low 20s.

But, what if they aren actually close. I've been in an ice storm when .5 inches of liquid basically led to 100 percent power outages. 2 inches is just insane.
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Same here. It's nauseating knowing what's coming. Unfortunately though each run has dissolved super cold 925mb temps sunday meaning everyone changes to freezing rain late sat night..early sun. Unless we see a drastic change we are screwed.

David chandley on fox 5, who is a well respected atlanta met just said it could be a "generational ice storm". He doesn't say things like that lightly imo. The only thing that could save us at this point is a)a sudden shift of the axix of heavy precip north or b) we see a colder solutions and we get sleet.
 
HailCore said:
View attachment 187328
ZR totals from the Canadian appear to have increased for parts of NE GA, probably because this run actually hung on to the CAD for longer which is is more believable than the Euro completely erasing it after a short time IMO. Obviously these totals are overdone because QPF and Canadian, but I don't see this threat going away anytime soon for those regions.
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That is an absolute cave by the CMC to the GFS/Icon.
 
So 4 inches of sleet, followed up by .9 of FreeIng Rain. The highest the surface temp gets to as last drop falls is 26 degrees.

Knowing temps will be as advertised here. Lock
Its all about qpf total now. All have screamed 1.5+, some at or over 2.0 at times. The euro op has been outlier with its lowest output still at like 1.2 here.
Jimmy said it best,beat me to it. Its all about a qpf forecast now. Ive seen enough to know a major ice storm is coming. Triad south. Sleet will save us almost the whole 1st half of storm. But its second half we get scorched with frzng rain. You get below hwy 64, espeacilly down hwy 49 toward charlotte, uwharries, back toward pinehurst, down to Lake Hartwell GA, Gainsville, is gonna be rough.
 
AIGFS is not nearly as cold in Georgia and is of a shorter duration with a much more amped look based solely on total precip.

For Georgia peeps who just want some pretty trees with minimal disruption, this one's for you.
aigfs-sfct_b-imp-us_se-2026012200-84.pngaigfs-qpf_048h-imp-us_se-2026012200-114.png
 
jackendrickwx said:
You may never see modeled temps like this again at this range for the Carolinas
View attachment 187329
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I see no way that it will get as cold in ATL as is on this model. There’s got to be a problem with a GFS cold bias. How do they have much of ATL metro plunging to <0 with no snow or sleetcover? This looks way overdone. And did you see that run with all time record cold levels being surpassed?
 
BullCityWx said:
I wonder if we’ll end up trending in the next 48 hours to a more significant front end thump of snow then a ton of sleet then some freezing rain only to be topped with more snow.

Just saying I’ve seen a ton of storms go like that.
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100%…. Maybe not to this extent but I swear this Day 2-3 timeframe with Feb 2014 was the same garbage about “ohhh Ice is the issue” then “Oh sleet bomb” then the last 24hrs it magically became deeper Cold. However I would only gotten like 9” from that, but I got in that insane ULL Deform that Thursday AM and legit got my last 3” from that


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