That gradient is wild
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
The guys at NBC 3 in Chattanooga were doing it as well, probably elsewhere.
Unless the HRRR shows something, it’s not worth anyone’s time.
RollTide18
Member
GoDuke
Member
37 in one county both u go south 1 and it's a 25 degree difference?
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Don't let your guard down on several models' first run on the 3rd day out from the party. This seems to happen more so than not. A over correction with new data.
Damnit Euro still gives me an inch of ice. Upstate needs one more big jump like that and we might be clear
As far as hurricane hunter no that appears to be tomorrow night runs
Flo
Member
One hell of an extreme overreaction if that’s the case.
I'm just a dumbass who likes to read weather boards, but how in the heck do you go from such consistency (relative) to this in the last 12 hours? Either something was massively wrong for 3 days or so or it is now. Help me understand.
It will be interesting to see how much further this thing goes with that data injection.
How many runs does it take the GFS to figure it out? Another 48 hours?
I don't know, I want to say it had to be bad data, but the problem with that theory is the Ukmet and CMC have been amped.
That's what we all trying to figure out how can something that's had this much confidence now become something that is all over the place with crazy temperature swings
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For central NC, the euro still gives a concerning amount of freezing rain. RDU stays below freezing threw most of the precipitation (1.7" QPF). Just not sure if it's not done trending warmer.
Seen plenty of fails following weather.... unless specifically the UKMET/Euro ate some bad tacos this would rank up there as a all time fail!!!
BUT cmc has been bad like this for days similar to us joking about ICON the CMC has been very bad in recent years so maybe there's a hope there that Euro and others are chasing ghosts
saielA10462
Member
this was the storm. You lose this at day 5 i’m not looking at 300hr 500mb EPS charts lol. Winter is forgotten and in infamy for many here
hr 54 eps is weaker, slightly further west with baja low
AIFS-ENS is about to follow suite. Very warm.
One thing that this indicates to me is that the issue is entirely related to initial conditions. Either the ECM/UKM camps are reading something wrong or the GFS/ICON camps are.. likely related to the complex features in the arctic circle which will affect the Canadian trough.
One thing that this indicates to me is that the issue is entirely related to initial conditions. Either the ECM/UKM camps are reading something wrong or the GFS/ICON camps are.. likely related to the complex features in the arctic circle which will affect the Canadian trough.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
0z EPS is more amped again.
It’s the energy in Canada heading into Montana. Still shifting west and that’s gonna cause amping
blueheronNC
Member
The way it’s pumping the southeast ridge and bringing Wilmington, NC into the upper 60s Sunday afternoon, no way the CAD holds for destructive freezing rain.
Yep worst case scenario for us is getting something like this Euro run when all is said and done. Hoping wishing praying it continues to trend north/warmer so we just end up with cold rain, if it isn’t going to trend back down south as we obviously would prefer
heaven forbid a man try to find a silver lining in trying times
Might as well show this
AIFS-ENS is quite warm
This is so dumb. How are these at the same time? Is the GFS and ICON really that bad?? 
LittleMountain
Member
We went from yesterday morning (and many days prior) talking about how everything was aligning for a classic southern snowstorm (overrunning). Shades of 1988. To a cutter. Wouldn’t be a big deal if it was a week out and only weather weenie world was watching. But all local stations and Mets across the Carolinas were hyping it
i went from relatively safe 10-15 inches to p-type battleground in 12 hours i've never seen anything like this before
Yes, it would be a catastrophe as modeled (1.7" ZR for RDU).
So now I don't have to worry about driving down to my cousins' in south FL to avoid hypothermia induced by power outages from 3" of ZR...we're so back
A difference of 20 miles of the perimeter of downtown Atlanta on the Euro is the difference between seeing 45 degrees and 60+ degrees. What on earth is that?
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All those people who had a foot+ of legit snow on every EPS member...
There's your wedge, gotta draw the line somewhere. Couple MARTA stops south of me and the Euro doesn't show a single minute of precip below 32ºF
uptwnnycwx
Member
Have to put a lot of weight towards the euro. I would expect the GFS/ICON to follow soon (maybe 6z). Hopefully the models meet more in the middle. Would love to see the 6z euro back off some.
This is completely bizarre. I thought ensembles mitigated this sort of wild swinging thing? I haven't been paying attention on that level, so maybe it was there all along? Or do we have a garbage in, garbage out situation?
Windergawx
Member
What if the icon/gfs held.. all the mets jumped ship to euro.. just to get an ice storm of the century .. popcorn time!